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As both the economic and political gaps widen between the UK and Europe, I have to wonder whether the Brits would even be able to re-enter if they wanted to. Ca

As both the economic and political gaps widen between the UK and Europe, I have to wonder whether the Brits would even be able to re-enter if they wanted to. Can any continental Europeans share their perspective on that prospect?

jacquesm 5y ago
Of course they could. If the UK falls apart Scotland will be welcome (likely over the protests of Spain but nothing that can't be bought off). The remainder will then follow bit by bit with England likely last. If the UK manages to hold together then it will be welcome to return but without the special exceptions that were made for it in the past. The good deal they had was squandered and the negotiation position of the EU has strengthened accordingly. Alternatively, the UK could conceivably try to get closer to the USA (not physically, obviously), but I doubt that would fly given the distance involved.
- smackay 5y ago
  Scotland is a sovereign nation which is currently in a long term "marriage" with England through the Treaty of Union. It's not trying secede from the United Kingdom in as much as it's trying to get a divorce - not unlike Brexit. As a result while many people draw parallels with the situation in Catalonia it's not the same. The Spanish government has little to fear from the breakup of the United Kingdom and likely has much to gain. As member of the European Union Scotland has a lot of natural resources from fish to energy which would benefit other EU members.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Yes, but politicians aren't always rational and the Spanish have already voiced their concerns about this. The funny thing (well, not really funny, but given the situation there is something that borders on humor) to me is that England is absolutely adamant that Scotland can't secede from the Union when that is exactly what they just forced Scotland to be a part of with the EU. It boggles the mind how they twist themselves into the weirdest illogical pretzels arguing that when Scotland voted to stay in the Union that vote was binding even post Brexit, as if the circumstances haven't materially changed. We'll see how that one ends. But eventually the only thing that matters is the economy and for now that doesn't look all that good for the UK, the sooner they turn around the better for everybody. But Europe is not going to push for this, it will have to come from inside for it to work.
    - colinb 5y ago
      how is that different that the Scots voting to leave the UK rather than remain part of the union? None of this is, or has to be logical. When I lived in Scotland I knew people who voted both for and against independence from the UK. Now, all of those people are pro-independence; and strongly in favor of an independent Scotland joining the EU. That might perhaps be optimistic - I don't know if the rest of the EU can convince a right-wing Spanish government to let a separatist Scotland in. Also, I think the idea that all that matters is the economy is glib nonsense. Whether people should vote with their emotions matters little, when they in fact do vote with their hearts. My own feelings on Scottish independence aside, I wonder if the Scottish Nationalists would have had more success in the last referendum if instead of making an (IMO rather weak) economic argument, they had stuck with the more emotional case for independence. "Yes, voting for separation from the UK will make us poorer for a time, but it'll be worth it to <sound of trumpets> be free." I am from a place that impoverished itself for most of a century via independence, but I don't think many of us would vote to back with our old imperial masters now.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        I think joining the EU or not for a candidate country is first an economic advantage and second about freedom of movement. Nationalist sentiments ('free') are obviously going to have to take a backseat to those. So I don't see how a referendum on that using the dual theme of being 'free' and then immediately joining the EU would work in practice, that sounds like arguing both sides at the same time.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    That's what Catalonia was, originally joining under Aragon crown with the Castille crown in a marriage. It was just a long time ago and multiple political and government (r)evolutions ( a few civil wars, revolutions, monarchy, republic, dictatorship) and it's now merely an autonomous region.
  - maxwell86 5y ago
    The most important resource Scottland brings to the EU is destabilizing the UK, and setting an example for what happens when a country democracy decays down to the point of them making very poor political decisions “at the EU level”. In the EU nobody cares if you make bad political decisions at the local level, like in Poland or Hungary, but once you create 4 years of painful Brexit negotiations for all other countries involved, then people care about you wasting their time.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Oh please. This whole setting an example business really has no connection to reality. The UK is in the driving seat here, destabilizing the UK benefits nobody but the financial powers in the UK figured that they'd rather be bigger fish in a much smaller pond that they control. The end result always was predictable. But Scotland and Ireland don't really benefit from 'The City' and as such lost a lot more than they gained. These side effects, conveniently ignored by the 'leave' camp come with a major cost attached, which will likely negate all of the gains.
  - timellis-smith 5y ago
    I doubt Scotland would be allowed into the EU with its current budget deficit. From what I understand, it would need some serious austerity to be bought in line with EU accession laws.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Compared to other countries already in the EU I don't see that as a huge problem, the Copenhagen criteria could be met. But regardless, it would always be a slow process, first a referendum, then a (heavily contested) formal secession from the Union, then a period to get their house in order and apply for formal EU membership which would then take another two to three years to hash out. I don't see this happening on a total timescale less than five years. And then there are still the questions of internal borders, Schengen and the Euro.
- tzs 5y ago
  > If the UK falls apart Scotland will be welcome (likely over the protests of Spain but nothing that can't be bought off) I don't have a cite for this, but I think I read somewhere that Spain has said they will have no objection to Scotland joining the EU as long as the separation of Scotland from the UK is done legally under UK law.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    And that will likely never happen. The UK has said that a second referendum will be 'illegal'. How they intend to square that with the first (which they liked the outcome of) being legal I do not know.
eCa 5y ago
Northern european here. I would welcome the UK back without hesitation (but not without negotiations, naturally). Of course, I also expect all exceptions originally given to the UK to be lost forever.
- maxwell86 5y ago
  I expect them to have to adopt the Euro, and ideally to also start driving at the “right” side of the road.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    And full metrication! And I mean full, not just the road speeds but also beer served in 250ml, 500ml measures.
  - mrlonglong 5y ago
    Euro, yes. Metric, yes. Switch to the right, no. Ireland hasn't switched either.
  - inawarminister 5y ago
    That would be horrendous. As an Indonesian, losing a major country for left side driving would be a huge loss. No more used cars from Britain, just Japan. Scientifically, the majority of drivers drive better on the left too, due to dominant right eye.
turbinerneiter 5y ago
The EU does indeed have all the issues with democratic legiticamcy that the leavers claimed, and this is the reason why the UK could easily re-enter at any point. There is no rational argument against it and the EU bureaucrats won't care about the hurt ego arguments that many people would bring up. The UK would lose all the beneficial deals they had tough. As a EU citizen who likes the EU, I think the EU has a lot to fix and I hoped that Brexit would be a wakeup call for the elites to get started. But it doesn't look that way. The fact that von der Leyen is President of the EU commission is a clear indicator for what is currently wrong with the EU.
kergonath 5y ago
Everything is a one off in this respect. I can’t see why the U.K. would not be allowed back in. It is just a matter of negociations. I also cannot see how it would re-achieve the sweet deal it used to have, however. Overall, I would say that some form of participation in the EEA is more likely. Something that a government could sell to the Brexit voters with a reasonable amount of fudge.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > I can’t see why the U.K. would not be allowed back in. I don't see the UK being "welcomed back in" any time soon. I see the UK being allowed to align rules with the EU, i.e. economic openness, enjoying the benefits of alignment, but not full membership and a vote on on serious matters with the core EU members. Maybe a decade or two later that would happen.
  - kergonath 5y ago
    Yeah, welcome is relative (also why I used “allowed” instead). I think you’re likely right.

jacquesm 5y ago

Of course they could. If the UK falls apart Scotland will be welcome (likely over the protests of Spain but nothing that can't be bought off). The remainder will then follow bit by bit with England likely last. If the UK manages to hold together then it will be welcome to return but without the special exceptions that were made for it in the past. The good deal they had was squandered and the negotiation position of the EU has strengthened accordingly. Alternatively, the UK could conceivably try to get closer to the USA (not physically, obviously), but I doubt that would fly given the distance involved.

smackay 5y ago
Scotland is a sovereign nation which is currently in a long term "marriage" with England through the Treaty of Union. It's not trying secede from the United Kingdom in as much as it's trying to get a divorce - not unlike Brexit. As a result while many people draw parallels with the situation in Catalonia it's not the same. The Spanish government has little to fear from the breakup of the United Kingdom and likely has much to gain. As member of the European Union Scotland has a lot of natural resources from fish to energy which would benefit other EU members.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Yes, but politicians aren't always rational and the Spanish have already voiced their concerns about this. The funny thing (well, not really funny, but given the situation there is something that borders on humor) to me is that England is absolutely adamant that Scotland can't secede from the Union when that is exactly what they just forced Scotland to be a part of with the EU. It boggles the mind how they twist themselves into the weirdest illogical pretzels arguing that when Scotland voted to stay in the Union that vote was binding even post Brexit, as if the circumstances haven't materially changed. We'll see how that one ends. But eventually the only thing that matters is the economy and for now that doesn't look all that good for the UK, the sooner they turn around the better for everybody. But Europe is not going to push for this, it will have to come from inside for it to work.
  - colinb 5y ago
    how is that different that the Scots voting to leave the UK rather than remain part of the union? None of this is, or has to be logical. When I lived in Scotland I knew people who voted both for and against independence from the UK. Now, all of those people are pro-independence; and strongly in favor of an independent Scotland joining the EU. That might perhaps be optimistic - I don't know if the rest of the EU can convince a right-wing Spanish government to let a separatist Scotland in. Also, I think the idea that all that matters is the economy is glib nonsense. Whether people should vote with their emotions matters little, when they in fact do vote with their hearts. My own feelings on Scottish independence aside, I wonder if the Scottish Nationalists would have had more success in the last referendum if instead of making an (IMO rather weak) economic argument, they had stuck with the more emotional case for independence. "Yes, voting for separation from the UK will make us poorer for a time, but it'll be worth it to <sound of trumpets> be free." I am from a place that impoverished itself for most of a century via independence, but I don't think many of us would vote to back with our old imperial masters now.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      I think joining the EU or not for a candidate country is first an economic advantage and second about freedom of movement. Nationalist sentiments ('free') are obviously going to have to take a backseat to those. So I don't see how a referendum on that using the dual theme of being 'free' and then immediately joining the EU would work in practice, that sounds like arguing both sides at the same time.
- sofixa 5y ago
  That's what Catalonia was, originally joining under Aragon crown with the Castille crown in a marriage. It was just a long time ago and multiple political and government (r)evolutions ( a few civil wars, revolutions, monarchy, republic, dictatorship) and it's now merely an autonomous region.
- maxwell86 5y ago
  The most important resource Scottland brings to the EU is destabilizing the UK, and setting an example for what happens when a country democracy decays down to the point of them making very poor political decisions “at the EU level”. In the EU nobody cares if you make bad political decisions at the local level, like in Poland or Hungary, but once you create 4 years of painful Brexit negotiations for all other countries involved, then people care about you wasting their time.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Oh please. This whole setting an example business really has no connection to reality. The UK is in the driving seat here, destabilizing the UK benefits nobody but the financial powers in the UK figured that they'd rather be bigger fish in a much smaller pond that they control. The end result always was predictable. But Scotland and Ireland don't really benefit from 'The City' and as such lost a lot more than they gained. These side effects, conveniently ignored by the 'leave' camp come with a major cost attached, which will likely negate all of the gains.
- timellis-smith 5y ago
  I doubt Scotland would be allowed into the EU with its current budget deficit. From what I understand, it would need some serious austerity to be bought in line with EU accession laws.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Compared to other countries already in the EU I don't see that as a huge problem, the Copenhagen criteria could be met. But regardless, it would always be a slow process, first a referendum, then a (heavily contested) formal secession from the Union, then a period to get their house in order and apply for formal EU membership which would then take another two to three years to hash out. I don't see this happening on a total timescale less than five years. And then there are still the questions of internal borders, Schengen and the Euro.
tzs 5y ago
> If the UK falls apart Scotland will be welcome (likely over the protests of Spain but nothing that can't be bought off) I don't have a cite for this, but I think I read somewhere that Spain has said they will have no objection to Scotland joining the EU as long as the separation of Scotland from the UK is done legally under UK law.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  And that will likely never happen. The UK has said that a second referendum will be 'illegal'. How they intend to square that with the first (which they liked the outcome of) being legal I do not know.

eCa 5y ago

Northern european here. I would welcome the UK back without hesitation (but not without negotiations, naturally). Of course, I also expect all exceptions originally given to the UK to be lost forever.

maxwell86 5y ago
I expect them to have to adopt the Euro, and ideally to also start driving at the “right” side of the road.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  And full metrication! And I mean full, not just the road speeds but also beer served in 250ml, 500ml measures.
- mrlonglong 5y ago
  Euro, yes. Metric, yes. Switch to the right, no. Ireland hasn't switched either.
- inawarminister 5y ago
  That would be horrendous. As an Indonesian, losing a major country for left side driving would be a huge loss. No more used cars from Britain, just Japan. Scientifically, the majority of drivers drive better on the left too, due to dominant right eye.

turbinerneiter 5y ago

The EU does indeed have all the issues with democratic legiticamcy that the leavers claimed, and this is the reason why the UK could easily re-enter at any point. There is no rational argument against it and the EU bureaucrats won't care about the hurt ego arguments that many people would bring up. The UK would lose all the beneficial deals they had tough. As a EU citizen who likes the EU, I think the EU has a lot to fix and I hoped that Brexit would be a wakeup call for the elites to get started. But it doesn't look that way. The fact that von der Leyen is President of the EU commission is a clear indicator for what is currently wrong with the EU.

kergonath 5y ago

Everything is a one off in this respect. I can’t see why the U.K. would not be allowed back in. It is just a matter of negociations. I also cannot see how it would re-achieve the sweet deal it used to have, however. Overall, I would say that some form of participation in the EEA is more likely. Something that a government could sell to the Brexit voters with a reasonable amount of fudge.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> I can’t see why the U.K. would not be allowed back in. I don't see the UK being "welcomed back in" any time soon. I see the UK being allowed to align rules with the EU, i.e. economic openness, enjoying the benefits of alignment, but not full membership and a vote on on serious matters with the core EU members. Maybe a decade or two later that would happen.
- kergonath 5y ago
  Yeah, welcome is relative (also why I used “allowed” instead). I think you’re likely right.