4 ms·

Kinda glad that UK tested these waters so us other EU countries don't have to. Too bad it made Europe weaker.

danjac 5y ago
It might well have made Europe stronger. UK was always the awkward odd man out that vetoed decisions left and right. I suspect that the UK will be back in the Single Market in all but name by the end of the decade, once there is a change of regime, the core Brexit demographic has passed away, and economic realities come home to roost.
- akmarinov 5y ago
  I’m in the same boat, the path to federalization is a slight bit more clear now.
  - thechao 5y ago
    American: by Federalization, do you mean a single pan-EU govt? Is there a sunmary if the structure & power-sharing arrangement between the constituent states?
    - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
      Some things are shared already: The Euro is common currency for key states, and borders are light-to-non-existent. Thea means that a lot of governance has to be shared. The lesson is that a single market isn't just about opening borders, it's about shared standards and practices that prevent a race to the bottom. A market is fundamentally a shared set of ground-rules. I'm sure that there are lessons to be learned from 2008 about making a shared currency and financial arrangement that works for both e.g. Germany and for Greece. Without the UK, "the awkward odd man out that consistently vetoed further integration" this trend is bound to continue and more things will become shared, in an "ever closer union".
  - akvadrako 5y ago
    You think EU will become more close knit? The Dutch government recently said that next time the EU treaty is updated they will request the "ever closer union" be removed. Poland and some other eastern EU countries also seem to be pushing for more national sovereignty.
- mmarq 5y ago
  Before it went insane, the UK played a positive antagonistic (to Germany) role, that I believe helped shaping some European institutions. The EU is in some way weaker, because it lost a very important state, in some way stronger because everybody can see the shitshow that Brexit is and nobody dares to propose Italy or France leave the Union. The UK is definitely weaker.
Proven 5y ago
The UK demonstrated that EU membership is worse than worthless. Many members are hooked on ECB bailouts and EU budget handouts. As soon as either of those stops, the EU goes down in two quarters. It's going to be fun!
- kristiandupont 5y ago
  With this kind of comment you remind me of the quote from Betrand Russel from the article on the frontpage earlier today: [...] a great many men will cheerfully face impoverishment if they can thereby secure complete ruin for their rivals.
  - zpeti 5y ago
    It also reminds me how many people were incapable of understanding, that some people are fine with being poorer if they aren't controlled by a central unelected bureaucracy far way. National sovereignty actually means something to many people, as does having locally elected representatives. Many many people seem fine giving up democracy for no roaming charges, no passport checks, and being a bit richer. It's a bit sad.
    - kristiandupont 5y ago
      At no point had the UK "given up democracy".
    - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
      The EU does have elected representatives though. It also has a load of unelected bureaucrats, as all government's do. Who elects bureaucrats? Of course if being governed by unelected people is the issue, possibly we should look a bit closer to home at the Monarchy and the House of Lords.
      - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
        How much does the Monarchy actually govern, though? Ceremonially, sure, but actual power? Not so much.
Joeri 5y ago
As someone from a country still in the EU the Brexit outcome makes me uncomfortable. It is clear now that the EU is a set of golden handcuffs for those on the inside. As the EU grows in power it dictates more and more rules. I’ve heard numbers as high as 80% of national legislation being determined by EU directives. Mostly I think the EU directives turn out better than the national legislation would have (we would never get such strong privacy rights for example), but this might not always be the case. When those golden handcuffs start to chafe, what is a member country to do? The EU has a real challenge ahead in leaving a place for regional and national self-determination, and ironically an EU constitution might be the best path to limiting its power, just like the US constitution somewhat acts to protect the states from the federal government.
- isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago
  Have you verified that 80% claim?
- throwaway6734 5y ago
  >The EU has a real challenge ahead in leaving a place for regional and national self-determination, and ironically an EU constitution might be the best path to limiting its power, just like the US constitution somewhat acts to protect the states from the federal government. This would be really neat to see. As an American I very much want a strong EU to act as a check on the US and help push back against China's influence. A fractured europe will not be able to withstand the pull between the US and China
  - timellis-smith 5y ago
    It will be really interesting to see how the EU battle with Poland plays out: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/brussels-launches-legal-action-over-polish-rulings-against-eu-law https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/... Can the EU override the constitution of a country?
    - jacquesm 5y ago
moksly 5y ago
They didn’t though. Nobody forced them to leave without a reasonable deal, or a reasonable bureaucracy set up to handle it. They did that all by themselves. I think they could have gone for a deal similar to the other non-EU but still kind of EU countries like Norway if they wanted. Because of pragmatism, but that’s not what the Brexiteers wanted.
- timellis-smith 5y ago
  Would it have really been possible? Britain couldn't get a deal then vote for it, as the EU would then hold all the cards negotiating. I.e it will be have offered Britain nothing in order to stop Brexit. Likewise if Britain had set up a bureaucracy to deal with Brexit before it was voted for there would have been a massive backlash about the waste of tax payer money on an uncertain event.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    The Brexit vote, according the architects was never supposed to pass. It was a stupid gamble that ended up benefiting the opposition.
timellis-smith 5y ago
The experience of the UK leaving will be very different to countries in the eurozone. Even if a country like Italy really wanted to leave it would be just about impossible due to having to float its own currency

It might well have made Europe stronger. UK was always the awkward odd man out that vetoed decisions left and right. I suspect that the UK will be back in the Single Market in all but name by the end of the decade, once there is a change of regime, the core Brexit demographic has passed away, and economic realities come home to roost.

akmarinov 5y ago
I’m in the same boat, the path to federalization is a slight bit more clear now.
- thechao 5y ago
  American: by Federalization, do you mean a single pan-EU govt? Is there a sunmary if the structure & power-sharing arrangement between the constituent states?
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    Some things are shared already: The Euro is common currency for key states, and borders are light-to-non-existent. Thea means that a lot of governance has to be shared. The lesson is that a single market isn't just about opening borders, it's about shared standards and practices that prevent a race to the bottom. A market is fundamentally a shared set of ground-rules. I'm sure that there are lessons to be learned from 2008 about making a shared currency and financial arrangement that works for both e.g. Germany and for Greece. Without the UK, "the awkward odd man out that consistently vetoed further integration" this trend is bound to continue and more things will become shared, in an "ever closer union".
- akvadrako 5y ago
  You think EU will become more close knit? The Dutch government recently said that next time the EU treaty is updated they will request the "ever closer union" be removed. Poland and some other eastern EU countries also seem to be pushing for more national sovereignty.
mmarq 5y ago
Before it went insane, the UK played a positive antagonistic (to Germany) role, that I believe helped shaping some European institutions. The EU is in some way weaker, because it lost a very important state, in some way stronger because everybody can see the shitshow that Brexit is and nobody dares to propose Italy or France leave the Union. The UK is definitely weaker.

Proven 5y ago

The UK demonstrated that EU membership is worse than worthless. Many members are hooked on ECB bailouts and EU budget handouts. As soon as either of those stops, the EU goes down in two quarters. It's going to be fun!

kristiandupont 5y ago
With this kind of comment you remind me of the quote from Betrand Russel from the article on the frontpage earlier today: [...] a great many men will cheerfully face impoverishment if they can thereby secure complete ruin for their rivals.
- zpeti 5y ago
  It also reminds me how many people were incapable of understanding, that some people are fine with being poorer if they aren't controlled by a central unelected bureaucracy far way. National sovereignty actually means something to many people, as does having locally elected representatives. Many many people seem fine giving up democracy for no roaming charges, no passport checks, and being a bit richer. It's a bit sad.
  - kristiandupont 5y ago
    At no point had the UK "given up democracy".
  - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
    The EU does have elected representatives though. It also has a load of unelected bureaucrats, as all government's do. Who elects bureaucrats? Of course if being governed by unelected people is the issue, possibly we should look a bit closer to home at the Monarchy and the House of Lords.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      How much does the Monarchy actually govern, though? Ceremonially, sure, but actual power? Not so much.

Joeri 5y ago

As someone from a country still in the EU the Brexit outcome makes me uncomfortable. It is clear now that the EU is a set of golden handcuffs for those on the inside. As the EU grows in power it dictates more and more rules. I’ve heard numbers as high as 80% of national legislation being determined by EU directives. Mostly I think the EU directives turn out better than the national legislation would have (we would never get such strong privacy rights for example), but this might not always be the case. When those golden handcuffs start to chafe, what is a member country to do? The EU has a real challenge ahead in leaving a place for regional and national self-determination, and ironically an EU constitution might be the best path to limiting its power, just like the US constitution somewhat acts to protect the states from the federal government.

isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago
Have you verified that 80% claim?
throwaway6734 5y ago
>The EU has a real challenge ahead in leaving a place for regional and national self-determination, and ironically an EU constitution might be the best path to limiting its power, just like the US constitution somewhat acts to protect the states from the federal government. This would be really neat to see. As an American I very much want a strong EU to act as a check on the US and help push back against China's influence. A fractured europe will not be able to withstand the pull between the US and China
- timellis-smith 5y ago
  It will be really interesting to see how the EU battle with Poland plays out: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/brussels-launches-legal-action-over-polish-rulings-against-eu-law https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/... Can the EU override the constitution of a country?
  - jacquesm 5y ago

moksly 5y ago

They didn’t though. Nobody forced them to leave without a reasonable deal, or a reasonable bureaucracy set up to handle it. They did that all by themselves. I think they could have gone for a deal similar to the other non-EU but still kind of EU countries like Norway if they wanted. Because of pragmatism, but that’s not what the Brexiteers wanted.

timellis-smith 5y ago
Would it have really been possible? Britain couldn't get a deal then vote for it, as the EU would then hold all the cards negotiating. I.e it will be have offered Britain nothing in order to stop Brexit. Likewise if Britain had set up a bureaucracy to deal with Brexit before it was voted for there would have been a massive backlash about the waste of tax payer money on an uncertain event.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  The Brexit vote, according the architects was never supposed to pass. It was a stupid gamble that ended up benefiting the opposition.

timellis-smith 5y ago

The experience of the UK leaving will be very different to countries in the eurozone. Even if a country like Italy really wanted to leave it would be just about impossible due to having to float its own currency