3 ms·
'The evidence 1889-1890 outbreak was caused by a coronavirus has been referred to as "weak" and "conjectural" in an analysis of the literature' Seems this theo
by soperj 5y ago
'The evidence 1889-1890 outbreak was caused by a coronavirus has been referred to as "weak" and "conjectural" in an analysis of the literature'
Seems this theory has only gained traction in the last 2 years.
Looking into it further, case fatality rate of during the 1889-90 outbreak seemed to be 0.1-0.28, much lower than Covid-19 has been.
- nradov 5y agoOur data on the 1889-90 pandemic is pretty thin. We don't have any reliable records on deaths in poorer countries so the error bars are quite wide. A lower infection fatality rate in that previous pandemic is not at all surprising. Back in 1889 elderly people made up a much lower fraction of the population. And there was a lower rate of co-morbid conditions such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension.
- soperj 5y agoSure, there have been a lot of Flu pandemics with lower case fatality rates as well. Prior to this pandemic, they had actually narrowed down the flu subtype: "the reanalysis of seroarcheological data suggested Influenza A subtype H3 (possibly the H3N8 subtype) as a more likely cause for the 1889–1890 pandemic" There was no thoughts that it was Coronavirus related before this pandemic. edit: Interestingly though, the 1889-90 pandemic was thought to have originated in Bukhara, part of the Russian empire at the time, which has been historically a cattle raising area. H3N8 is Equine influenza virus, where as HCoV-OC43 was a Bovine coronavirus.