8 ms·

So the long Covid we’ve been afraid of for our children this whole time has actually been long term immunity? How ironic that our own push to vaccinate and save

by abduhl 5y ago

So the long Covid we’ve been afraid of for our children this whole time has actually been long term immunity? How ironic that our own push to vaccinate and save our children could put them in a worse position immunity-wise. Like rain on your wedding day.

epgui 5y ago
Biochemist here: your claim that vaccination puts children in a worse position is neither supported by this paper, nor substantiated by any other data point to the best of my knowledge.
- jokethrowaway 5y ago
  I think his point is that the immune response from the vaccine is lower than from just getting covid and the risks from getting covid for children are really low. Still, I don't think it makes much of a difference either way, especially for kids who don't have much to fear from covid.
  - epgui 5y ago
    "immune response from the vaccine is lower than from just getting covid" {{citation needed}} My point is that this is unsubstantiated. And it does make a big difference, because this reduces the likelihood of children going through multiple periods of infectivity: the fewer times children are infectious to others, on average, the more herd immunity we have, collectively, against SARS-CoV-2.
    - abduhl 5y ago
      - epgui 5y ago
        I have no idea what you mean. I believe (and at least I was hoping that) my comment was helpful.
        abduhl 5y ago
        Your comment was made intending to shut down discussion by appealing to authority rather than engaging in the substance of the discussion. Note that the last large paragraph you wrote which does engage with the discussion was added via an edit. This was the entirety of your original post: “{{citation needed}} My point is that this is unsubstantiated.”
        epgui 5y ago
        I was not "appealing to authority". The fact that I'm an expert in the field is, imo, valuable meta-information. I weigh people's opinions differently if they're rooted in expertise than if they're random anonymous people on the internet. Do what you want with that information, and please forgive my hasty edits: sometimes when I read back what I wrote, I notice that I'm missing something. There's no bad faith there.
        clairity 5y ago
        sorry, being 'an expert' has no bearing on the veracity of your claims. and further, claiming the nominative of 'expert' tends to negatively correlate with veracity. at best, you're an expert at the thing you study deeply, not the whole field. you perhaps may be more knowledgeable about different aspects of a given field, but that doesn't give you extraordinary powers of insight or reasoning. the exact opposite of your appeal is what teases out the known from the unknown, by triangulating from many arguments/opinions (the more, the better) whether they be 'expert' or not (the less correlated, the better).
        epgui 5y ago
        We're no longer talking about the subject matter, but there is absolutely value in knowing whether an opinion is informed by expertise or not. I did not "appeal to expertise", I merely signalled that I had expertise in the field. This has value. I suspect that a small minority of Hacker News participants are biochemists/biologists/life scientists, so the default assumption when you read comments on these topics is that they probably come from smart non-experts. By adding this extra information, I wasn't making my argument any better: I was only providing the readers with extra meta-information. I won't bother explaining the dangers of the appeal to authority, because I am persuaded that you are already familiar with the fallacy. However, I will say that not every form of "expertise signalling" is an appeal to authority, and it is usually a very good idea to defer to expertise. I recommend this article on the subject, if you're interested in seeing where I'm coming from: https://thelogicofscience.com/2015/03/20/the-rules-of-logic-part-6-appealing-to-authority-vs-deferring-to-experts/ https://thelogicofscience.com/2015/03/20/the-rules-of-logic-... Edit: and I will happily and readily admit that I am not the "most expert" person on any subject, and I myself pretty much always defer to the expertise of those who are more expert than me.
      - chana_masala 5y ago
        When you're already late... I appreciate the humor and I totally agree with your point
    - chana_masala 5y ago
      I would agree with the other sibling reply that asking for citation for natural immunity vs vaccine protection is a bit like asking for a citation for claiming that frozen water floats. Sure, you could prove it but it's a well accepted understanding in epidemiology and virology. It's only lately been.... Politicized.
      - epgui 5y ago
        This is pretty close to my area of expertise, and I don't think this is a well established principle at all.
      - heurisko 5y ago
        I was reading this article recently about natural vs vaccine immunity (mostly in adults I think). Didn't seem to reach any strong conclusions either way. > “It appears from the literature that natural infection provides immunity, but that immunity is seemingly not as strong and may not be as long lasting as that provided by the vaccine... > But not everyone agrees with this interpretation. “The data we have right now suggests that there probably isn’t a whole lot of difference” in terms of immunity to the spike protein > Memoli highlights real world data such as the Cleveland Clinic study18 and points out that while “vaccines are focused on only that tiny portion of immunity that can be induced” by the spike, someone who has had covid-19 was exposed to the whole virus, “which would likely offer a broader based immunity” that would be more protective against variants. The laboratory study offered by the FDA22 “only has to do with very specific antibodies to a very specific region of the virus [the spike],” says Memoli. “Claiming this as data supporting that vaccines are better than natural immunity is shortsighted and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complexity of immunity to respiratory viruses.” https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2101 https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2101
        chana_masala 5y ago
        Look into Measles vs MMR or pertussis and the pertussis vaccine
- abduhl 5y ago
  The paper itself asks the question I’ve suggested if you read between the lines: “COVID-19 vaccines are now being administered widely to adult populations and are also being delivered to children in some countries. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses in children after natural infection to inform vaccination strategy.”
  - lern_too_spel 5y ago
    The policy question this answers is whether to vaccinate children who have previously been infected, not whether to vaccinate children who have never been infected. The best decision for the latter group remains vaccination.
    - chana_masala 5y ago
      Children have nearly no risk of complications with covid vs. quite a large risk with the vaccine.
      - epgui 5y ago
        This is unequivocally incorrect.
        chana_masala 5y ago
        https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/weve-now-killed-close-to-twice-as https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/weve-now-killed-close-to-...
        jacquesm 5y ago
        That is a substantial misinterpretation of the data.
        chana_masala 5y ago
        Who wants to win a million dollars? The author has a $1 million dollar offer to debate him and prove him wrong.
- Consultant32452 5y ago
  Boys at least appear to be more in danger from the vaccine than the virus. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-risk-from-pfizer-jab-side-effect-than-covid-suggests-study https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-r...
  - rsfern 5y ago
    I think there’s a bit more nuance to it than that The paper in question found that in this age group risk of hospitalization for cardiac adverse events (CAE) is a few times higher than risk of hospitalization with Covid. It’s unclear (to me at least) how to quantify the level of danger in terms of acute and long term health effects from just this data. > Further research into the severity and long-term sequelae of post-vaccination CAE is warranted. Quantification of the benefits of the second vaccination dose and vaccination in addition to natural immunity in this demographic may be indicated to minimize harm. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v...
  - phonypc 5y ago
    No they don't. The study that article references is hot garbage. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-doctors-fall-into-the-same-trap-as-antivaxxers/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-do...
    - Consultant32452 5y ago
      85% of VAERS reports are made by physicians. 100% are validated by the CDC. What’s important is to disqualify the best information available so you just have to accept vague assertions from authority.
      - phonypc 5y ago
        VAERS is not the best information available by any means, but it is indeed a valid source of information. The issue with the paper is that it misuses the information and draws conclusions that aren't actually indicated.
tomwojcik 5y ago
- logic_beats_pro 5y ago
  And the most unverifiable scare tactic comment of this post award goes to... Newborns with serious post-covid issues, eh? Do you have any proof whatsoever of this or your other claims or are we just taking your word on it.
- nradov 5y ago
  It's very common for children admitted to hospitals for other conditions to be diagnosed with asymptotic COVID-19 as part of admission screening. There is no reliable evidence of frequent serious post-COVID issues in children. I support vaccination, but let's not exaggerate the risks of disease.
- davzie 5y ago
  Horseshit!
- 3maj 5y ago
  This is complete nonsense. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259785v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259785v... In Israel (I use them because they have a fantastic dashboard) not a single individual under the age of 19 has died of covid. Stop fear mongering.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - pacerwpg 5y ago
    I don't think he claimed anybody died.
    - pessimizer 5y ago
      Children have died. It's just that the numbers are very small, and the hospitals are not in any way packed with young people.
jawns 5y ago
Is there any reason to assume that initial infection with Covid can't cause both immunity against subsequent infection AND long Covid symptoms? Think about how chicken pox works. You get infected, you deal with (usually but not always) mild symptoms, and then you don't get chicken pox again. But you are susceptible to shingles later in life.
- nradov 5y ago
  Chicken pox is caused by varicella, a herpes virus which remains permanently in most infected people. It is in no way comparable to COVID-19.
  - jawns 5y ago
    I'm not suggesting that Covid and chicken pox are related as viruses. I'm merely pointing out one example of how long-term symptoms are not incompatible with immunity. We know that Covid causes long-term symptoms in some people. So it would be interesting to see whether the differential between natural immunity and vaccinated immunity (if there is one) is outweighed by the acute and long-term symptoms of active infection.
- paulryanrogers 5y ago
  Having gotten chicken pox intentionally then again as a teen, only to learn it significantly increases my risk for shingles later in life, I don't recommend natural infection when there is a vaccine. The second infection was particularly painful. Please vaccinate your kids.
jbd28 5y ago
You couldn’t have lost the plot any more with this one

by abduhl 5y ago

epgui 5y ago

Biochemist here: your claim that vaccination puts children in a worse position is neither supported by this paper, nor substantiated by any other data point to the best of my knowledge.

jokethrowaway 5y ago
I think his point is that the immune response from the vaccine is lower than from just getting covid and the risks from getting covid for children are really low. Still, I don't think it makes much of a difference either way, especially for kids who don't have much to fear from covid.
- epgui 5y ago
  "immune response from the vaccine is lower than from just getting covid" {{citation needed}} My point is that this is unsubstantiated. And it does make a big difference, because this reduces the likelihood of children going through multiple periods of infectivity: the fewer times children are infectious to others, on average, the more herd immunity we have, collectively, against SARS-CoV-2.
  - abduhl 5y ago
    - epgui 5y ago
      I have no idea what you mean. I believe (and at least I was hoping that) my comment was helpful.
      - abduhl 5y ago
        Your comment was made intending to shut down discussion by appealing to authority rather than engaging in the substance of the discussion. Note that the last large paragraph you wrote which does engage with the discussion was added via an edit. This was the entirety of your original post: “{{citation needed}} My point is that this is unsubstantiated.”
        epgui 5y ago
        I was not "appealing to authority". The fact that I'm an expert in the field is, imo, valuable meta-information. I weigh people's opinions differently if they're rooted in expertise than if they're random anonymous people on the internet. Do what you want with that information, and please forgive my hasty edits: sometimes when I read back what I wrote, I notice that I'm missing something. There's no bad faith there.
        clairity 5y ago
        sorry, being 'an expert' has no bearing on the veracity of your claims. and further, claiming the nominative of 'expert' tends to negatively correlate with veracity. at best, you're an expert at the thing you study deeply, not the whole field. you perhaps may be more knowledgeable about different aspects of a given field, but that doesn't give you extraordinary powers of insight or reasoning. the exact opposite of your appeal is what teases out the known from the unknown, by triangulating from many arguments/opinions (the more, the better) whether they be 'expert' or not (the less correlated, the better).
        epgui 5y ago
        We're no longer talking about the subject matter, but there is absolutely value in knowing whether an opinion is informed by expertise or not. I did not "appeal to expertise", I merely signalled that I had expertise in the field. This has value. I suspect that a small minority of Hacker News participants are biochemists/biologists/life scientists, so the default assumption when you read comments on these topics is that they probably come from smart non-experts. By adding this extra information, I wasn't making my argument any better: I was only providing the readers with extra meta-information. I won't bother explaining the dangers of the appeal to authority, because I am persuaded that you are already familiar with the fallacy. However, I will say that not every form of "expertise signalling" is an appeal to authority, and it is usually a very good idea to defer to expertise. I recommend this article on the subject, if you're interested in seeing where I'm coming from: https://thelogicofscience.com/2015/03/20/the-rules-of-logic-part-6-appealing-to-authority-vs-deferring-to-experts/ https://thelogicofscience.com/2015/03/20/the-rules-of-logic-... Edit: and I will happily and readily admit that I am not the "most expert" person on any subject, and I myself pretty much always defer to the expertise of those who are more expert than me.
    - chana_masala 5y ago
      When you're already late... I appreciate the humor and I totally agree with your point
  - chana_masala 5y ago
    I would agree with the other sibling reply that asking for citation for natural immunity vs vaccine protection is a bit like asking for a citation for claiming that frozen water floats. Sure, you could prove it but it's a well accepted understanding in epidemiology and virology. It's only lately been.... Politicized.
    - epgui 5y ago
      This is pretty close to my area of expertise, and I don't think this is a well established principle at all.
    - heurisko 5y ago
      I was reading this article recently about natural vs vaccine immunity (mostly in adults I think). Didn't seem to reach any strong conclusions either way. > “It appears from the literature that natural infection provides immunity, but that immunity is seemingly not as strong and may not be as long lasting as that provided by the vaccine... > But not everyone agrees with this interpretation. “The data we have right now suggests that there probably isn’t a whole lot of difference” in terms of immunity to the spike protein > Memoli highlights real world data such as the Cleveland Clinic study18 and points out that while “vaccines are focused on only that tiny portion of immunity that can be induced” by the spike, someone who has had covid-19 was exposed to the whole virus, “which would likely offer a broader based immunity” that would be more protective against variants. The laboratory study offered by the FDA22 “only has to do with very specific antibodies to a very specific region of the virus [the spike],” says Memoli. “Claiming this as data supporting that vaccines are better than natural immunity is shortsighted and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complexity of immunity to respiratory viruses.” https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2101 https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2101
      - chana_masala 5y ago
        Look into Measles vs MMR or pertussis and the pertussis vaccine
abduhl 5y ago
The paper itself asks the question I’ve suggested if you read between the lines: “COVID-19 vaccines are now being administered widely to adult populations and are also being delivered to children in some countries. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses in children after natural infection to inform vaccination strategy.”
- lern_too_spel 5y ago
  The policy question this answers is whether to vaccinate children who have previously been infected, not whether to vaccinate children who have never been infected. The best decision for the latter group remains vaccination.
  - chana_masala 5y ago
    Children have nearly no risk of complications with covid vs. quite a large risk with the vaccine.
    - epgui 5y ago
      This is unequivocally incorrect.
      - chana_masala 5y ago
        https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/weve-now-killed-close-to-twice-as https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/weve-now-killed-close-to-...
        jacquesm 5y ago
        That is a substantial misinterpretation of the data.
        chana_masala 5y ago
        Who wants to win a million dollars? The author has a $1 million dollar offer to debate him and prove him wrong.
Consultant32452 5y ago
Boys at least appear to be more in danger from the vaccine than the virus. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-risk-from-pfizer-jab-side-effect-than-covid-suggests-study https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-r...
- rsfern 5y ago
  I think there’s a bit more nuance to it than that The paper in question found that in this age group risk of hospitalization for cardiac adverse events (CAE) is a few times higher than risk of hospitalization with Covid. It’s unclear (to me at least) how to quantify the level of danger in terms of acute and long term health effects from just this data. > Further research into the severity and long-term sequelae of post-vaccination CAE is warranted. Quantification of the benefits of the second vaccination dose and vaccination in addition to natural immunity in this demographic may be indicated to minimize harm. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v...
- phonypc 5y ago
  No they don't. The study that article references is hot garbage. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-doctors-fall-into-the-same-trap-as-antivaxxers/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-do...
  - Consultant32452 5y ago
    85% of VAERS reports are made by physicians. 100% are validated by the CDC. What’s important is to disqualify the best information available so you just have to accept vague assertions from authority.
    - phonypc 5y ago
      VAERS is not the best information available by any means, but it is indeed a valid source of information. The issue with the paper is that it misuses the information and draws conclusions that aren't actually indicated.

tomwojcik 5y ago

logic_beats_pro 5y ago
And the most unverifiable scare tactic comment of this post award goes to... Newborns with serious post-covid issues, eh? Do you have any proof whatsoever of this or your other claims or are we just taking your word on it.
nradov 5y ago
It's very common for children admitted to hospitals for other conditions to be diagnosed with asymptotic COVID-19 as part of admission screening. There is no reliable evidence of frequent serious post-COVID issues in children. I support vaccination, but let's not exaggerate the risks of disease.
davzie 5y ago
Horseshit!
3maj 5y ago
This is complete nonsense. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259785v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259785v... In Israel (I use them because they have a fantastic dashboard) not a single individual under the age of 19 has died of covid. Stop fear mongering.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- pacerwpg 5y ago
  I don't think he claimed anybody died.
  - pessimizer 5y ago
    Children have died. It's just that the numbers are very small, and the hospitals are not in any way packed with young people.

jawns 5y ago

Is there any reason to assume that initial infection with Covid can't cause both immunity against subsequent infection AND long Covid symptoms? Think about how chicken pox works. You get infected, you deal with (usually but not always) mild symptoms, and then you don't get chicken pox again. But you are susceptible to shingles later in life.

nradov 5y ago
Chicken pox is caused by varicella, a herpes virus which remains permanently in most infected people. It is in no way comparable to COVID-19.
- jawns 5y ago
  I'm not suggesting that Covid and chicken pox are related as viruses. I'm merely pointing out one example of how long-term symptoms are not incompatible with immunity. We know that Covid causes long-term symptoms in some people. So it would be interesting to see whether the differential between natural immunity and vaccinated immunity (if there is one) is outweighed by the acute and long-term symptoms of active infection.
paulryanrogers 5y ago
Having gotten chicken pox intentionally then again as a teen, only to learn it significantly increases my risk for shingles later in life, I don't recommend natural infection when there is a vaccine. The second infection was particularly painful. Please vaccinate your kids.

jbd28 5y ago

You couldn’t have lost the plot any more with this one