5 ms·

A place where it hit exponential levels with really bad results is here in NY at the beginning. We had no precautions, testing, or vaccines in place yet, and ho

A place where it hit exponential levels with really bad results is here in NY at the beginning. We had no precautions, testing, or vaccines in place yet, and hospitals were overwhelmed. It was honestly a scary time. That was where we started "flattening the curve". Now with vaccines available if there are surges and they are not literally building hospitals on fields like they were near me that is something we have to just live with. COVID will never hit 0 cases. People will still be hospitalized and occasionally die of COVID as was always the case with winter flu seasons. Now we are at the point where fully vaccinated people and people with immunity from a previous infection have a low rate of death or serious illness. People who are very old or have a compromised immune system should lay low and take precautions now and during every flu season when it spikes. Those who choose not to get vaccinated and die, that is still on them.

BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
Retric 5y ago
We are currently sitting at at total of over 800,000 COVID deaths in the US and 1,500 COVID deaths per day, which is roughly where it’s been since September 1st. That’s approximately an additional half a million dead people per year. So yes the vaccine has already saved million of lives, but I sure hope that this is not the new normal this winter or we are going to cross 1 million deaths fairly soon.
- PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
  Based on excess mortality numbers, it seems fairly likely that we're already over a million deaths that would not have happened without COVID19.
  - refurb 5y ago
    What will be interesting is to see the long term mortality rate. My hypothesis is we’re just accelerating the deaths of people over 70 years old (70%+ of the cases). If that’s true, you’d see a decrease in mortality over the next few years. Covid is basically doing what the flu does every winter (but on a larger scale) - it pushes people close to death over the edge.
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      This already happened in Belgium. When you look at the mortality rate per age group at https://statbel.fgov.be/en/about-statbel/what-we-do/visualisations/mortality https://statbel.fgov.be/en/about-statbel/what-we-do/visualis... , with age 85+, you can see the big spike in 2020, and in 2021 a big decrease compared to the 4 previous years. Less so with age group 75-84, but still visible.
      - gilbetron 5y ago
        While I wouldn't be surprised if such a thing does happen, I don't know if that we can say it happened yet, as I don't know how recent the 2021 death statistics are for Belgium. Usually it takes weeks or even months for mortality figures to be correct for a year, so that graph could just be showing that they don't have the full mortality results for 2021.
        koonsolo 5y ago
        yeah that is also possible
- oneoff786 5y ago
  It would be surprising if we didn’t cross 1 million deaths this winter.
  - tim333 5y ago
    Omicron may actually help deaths taper off a bit quicker than otherwise.
- akomtu 5y ago
  We shouldnt forget that something like 80% of them were already old people with a variety of health issues.
  - throwntoday 5y ago
    And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.
    - hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
      Had corona not of existed, would they still be dead?
    - zuminator 5y ago
      This is just a no true Scotsman argument in disguise. To wit, anyone who is young and healthy won't die from corona, therefore anyone young who died from it wasn't "really" healthy and had "unknown" issues. You can make that argument with any illness, and people do. E.g., you can't get cancer if you eat healthy, oh, you got cancer? You must not have been eating the right diet for your body type.
      - oneoff786 5y ago
        “All” is an exaggeration but it’s accurate to say that obesity was one of the biggest drivers of the mortality rate. Obese people are not healthy. Subjective boundaries aren’t an excuse to cover your ears and ignore strong correlations.
      - throwntoday 5y ago
        It's not a fallacy it's a very simple statement. Cancer was probably the worst example for your case as its something that can develop in-spite of being healthy and as far as we know it is not caused by a virus. Most people who contracted covid, 99.9% of them, are fine. Of those that have died, 100% seem to have had some underlying issue. You're acting as though it's unreasonable to account for comorbidities when determining the cause of death.
- ipspam 5y ago
throw0101a 5y ago
> A place where it hit exponential levels with really bad results is here in NY at the beginning. Or Italy where they had to call in the military to cart away corpses: * https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italian-army-moves-coronavirus-dead-from-overwhelmed-town.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italian-army-moves-coronavir...
ThomPete 5y ago
hospitals werent overwhelmed in New York, we didnt even use the hospital ship. Also the primary reason our numbers were high was because of the errors of putting sick people in senior homes. It wasn't a cakewalk but it was nowhere the nightmares of many other places.

BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago

Retric 5y ago

We are currently sitting at at total of over 800,000 COVID deaths in the US and 1,500 COVID deaths per day, which is roughly where it’s been since September 1st. That’s approximately an additional half a million dead people per year. So yes the vaccine has already saved million of lives, but I sure hope that this is not the new normal this winter or we are going to cross 1 million deaths fairly soon.

PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
Based on excess mortality numbers, it seems fairly likely that we're already over a million deaths that would not have happened without COVID19.
- refurb 5y ago
  What will be interesting is to see the long term mortality rate. My hypothesis is we’re just accelerating the deaths of people over 70 years old (70%+ of the cases). If that’s true, you’d see a decrease in mortality over the next few years. Covid is basically doing what the flu does every winter (but on a larger scale) - it pushes people close to death over the edge.
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    This already happened in Belgium. When you look at the mortality rate per age group at https://statbel.fgov.be/en/about-statbel/what-we-do/visualisations/mortality https://statbel.fgov.be/en/about-statbel/what-we-do/visualis... , with age 85+, you can see the big spike in 2020, and in 2021 a big decrease compared to the 4 previous years. Less so with age group 75-84, but still visible.
    - gilbetron 5y ago
      While I wouldn't be surprised if such a thing does happen, I don't know if that we can say it happened yet, as I don't know how recent the 2021 death statistics are for Belgium. Usually it takes weeks or even months for mortality figures to be correct for a year, so that graph could just be showing that they don't have the full mortality results for 2021.
      - koonsolo 5y ago
        yeah that is also possible
oneoff786 5y ago
It would be surprising if we didn’t cross 1 million deaths this winter.
- tim333 5y ago
  Omicron may actually help deaths taper off a bit quicker than otherwise.
akomtu 5y ago
We shouldnt forget that something like 80% of them were already old people with a variety of health issues.
- throwntoday 5y ago
  And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.
  - hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
    Had corona not of existed, would they still be dead?
  - zuminator 5y ago
    This is just a no true Scotsman argument in disguise. To wit, anyone who is young and healthy won't die from corona, therefore anyone young who died from it wasn't "really" healthy and had "unknown" issues. You can make that argument with any illness, and people do. E.g., you can't get cancer if you eat healthy, oh, you got cancer? You must not have been eating the right diet for your body type.
    - oneoff786 5y ago
      “All” is an exaggeration but it’s accurate to say that obesity was one of the biggest drivers of the mortality rate. Obese people are not healthy. Subjective boundaries aren’t an excuse to cover your ears and ignore strong correlations.
    - throwntoday 5y ago
      It's not a fallacy it's a very simple statement. Cancer was probably the worst example for your case as its something that can develop in-spite of being healthy and as far as we know it is not caused by a virus. Most people who contracted covid, 99.9% of them, are fine. Of those that have died, 100% seem to have had some underlying issue. You're acting as though it's unreasonable to account for comorbidities when determining the cause of death.
ipspam 5y ago

throw0101a 5y ago

> A place where it hit exponential levels with really bad results is here in NY at the beginning. Or Italy where they had to call in the military to cart away corpses: * https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italian-army-moves-coronavirus-dead-from-overwhelmed-town.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italian-army-moves-coronavir...

ThomPete 5y ago

hospitals werent overwhelmed in New York, we didnt even use the hospital ship. Also the primary reason our numbers were high was because of the errors of putting sick people in senior homes. It wasn't a cakewalk but it was nowhere the nightmares of many other places.