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Are those _really_ of interest though? How much better are these predictions than a few engineers' predictions during normal OKR planning? Hal's comments hint t
by quest88 5y ago
Are those _really_ of interest though? How much better are these predictions than a few engineers' predictions during normal OKR planning? Hal's comments hint they don't care about OKR estimates (or things like that) and prefer more interesting questions.
Examples: Real names and Google+. People objected and questioned these, and others, without a prediction market and they still got pushed through. There are products that are still alive but barely hanging on that were questioned too.
A successful gleangen would eliminate many PM and VP roles and they aren't going to let that happen.
- ddp26 5y agoYeah, fair points. You could imagine trying: (1) Ask "Will Google+ institute a real name policy by X date"? [This may not be useful to know.] (2) Ask "How many users will Google+ have on X date with a real name policy?" and "How many without?" [Potentially powerful, to the extent that they're accurate and decision makers trust them.] (3) Ask "What will the app rating of Google+ be on date X?" [Prices in all factors, so can perhaps reveal the effect of policy changes before they happen.] I don't see prediction markets replacing OKRs or strategy planning, but rather complementing them, kind of like A/B tests and user studies. There's still a lot to figure out!