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> At this point it is very clear, to me, that anyone using FSD/Autopilot is risking their lives by trusting their lives on a beta, or perhaps even alpha product

> At this point it is very clear, to me, that anyone using FSD/Autopilot is risking their lives by trusting their lives on a beta, or perhaps even alpha product Are you using population-level accident statistics to make this assessment? I’ve seen analysis that suggests the overall safety numbers for self-driving mode are better than human drivers, though I’ve not dug deeply enough to be confident in them. I’d caution against extrapolating from individual incidents though. I think we should expect that at the point that self driving is safer than a human driver, it will be worse than humans in some cases - simply because it can pick up a lot of gains by never being tired, distracted, or drunk. If one just looks at the pathological cases and says “I could have avoided that accident, therefore self-driving is a worse driver than me”, I believe one would be making an error of reasoning. There’s an interesting philosophical/legal question at play here. Does self-driving have to be strictly superior - ie no edge-cases where it is worse than a human - to be acceptable? Or can it be worse at some tasks if it’s killing fewer people overall? Many people will die if we are too strict here. And yet, people need to trust the system as well. I suspect this will be optimized based on expected costs of lawsuits, which is a poor proxy for morality…

taylodl 5y ago
People expect self-driving cars to be better than human drivers and not just statistically better. Any accident a self-driving car gets into that most humans would have avoided should be considered a fault of the self-driving system. There shouldn't be wholly new ways to get killed on the highway and us just shrug it off as yeah but fewer people are dying overall. That's not gonna fly. We must demand better.
- 1123581321 5y ago
  Of course it is going to fly. If we can, overall, save lives with these systems, then we are letting people die if we wait too long to deploy them. A lot of people think that way.
kybernetikos 5y ago
> I’ve seen analysis that suggests the overall safety numbers for self-driving mode are better than human drivers, though I’ve not dug deeply enough to be confident in them. All similar analysis I've seen compared all-road all-vehicle driving stats against autopilot stats. Of course, the correct comparison would be against luxury cars (with similar safety features) and only on the same kinds of roads that autopilot gets used on (i.e. primarily easier highway driving). As far as I can tell we are extremely far away from the hypothetical you raise where self-driving is better than human.
yumraj 5y ago
> Are you using population-level accident statistics to make this assessment? I’m making a rather simple assessment. I’ve seen Tesla autopilot/FSD fail catastrophically in situations where I would have been fine. This does not inspire confidence that it will do better in situations where I would have failed. As such, I’m not willing to put my life in its hand. And, I really hope no effing Tesla hits me.

taylodl 5y ago

People expect self-driving cars to be better than human drivers and not just statistically better. Any accident a self-driving car gets into that most humans would have avoided should be considered a fault of the self-driving system. There shouldn't be wholly new ways to get killed on the highway and us just shrug it off as yeah but fewer people are dying overall. That's not gonna fly. We must demand better.

1123581321 5y ago
Of course it is going to fly. If we can, overall, save lives with these systems, then we are letting people die if we wait too long to deploy them. A lot of people think that way.

kybernetikos 5y ago

> I’ve seen analysis that suggests the overall safety numbers for self-driving mode are better than human drivers, though I’ve not dug deeply enough to be confident in them. All similar analysis I've seen compared all-road all-vehicle driving stats against autopilot stats. Of course, the correct comparison would be against luxury cars (with similar safety features) and only on the same kinds of roads that autopilot gets used on (i.e. primarily easier highway driving). As far as I can tell we are extremely far away from the hypothetical you raise where self-driving is better than human.

yumraj 5y ago

> Are you using population-level accident statistics to make this assessment? I’m making a rather simple assessment. I’ve seen Tesla autopilot/FSD fail catastrophically in situations where I would have been fine. This does not inspire confidence that it will do better in situations where I would have failed. As such, I’m not willing to put my life in its hand. And, I really hope no effing Tesla hits me.