6 ms·

I wish someone would do the analysis of the loss of quality of life/child development/etc. vs lives saved. Policies (especially in Quebec) seem to be cyclical

by totony 5y ago

I wish someone would do the analysis of the loss of quality of life/child development/etc. vs lives saved. Policies (especially in Quebec) seem to be cyclical react-to-what-you-see, with little thinking for the long run. What's the plan? Do we have one?

sudosysgen 5y ago
The plan is to prevent the hospitals from bursting way over capacity, and letting it do what it wants otherwise, basically.
jollybean 5y ago
The public health agencies put out a lot of information, if you want a good example of one go look at Bonnie Henry (British Coloumbia) weekly addresses, she goes into great detail about measures taken etc.. They'll tell you exactly the genetic breakdown of the variants, which groups are getting what and why, whether it's schools, travellers, unvaccinated, homes, they'll tell you how many beds, how many 'overfill beds' how many surgeries postponed, how many staff, how many left due to no vaxx etc.. Just because you don't know what the plan is, doesn't mean there isn't one. Provincial and Federal entities are in constant contact with their peers in Europe, the US the WHO etc. there's a lot of information going around. Anyone who has been in such dynamic operational circumstances (i.e. the Army / Armed Forces) knows what facing chaos is, and generally speaking, as the saying goes 'No Plan Survives Contact' - it's more about managing information, preparedness/training than any kind of specific tactic. And FYI, the #1 tactic by far, thus far, has been vaccines. The data from all the provinces fairly clearly shows that the pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed, to the point that if we had near 100% vaxx, I'm not sure if R0 would be anywhere near 1, i.e. it could not spread. That said, Omicron is a game-changer in that regard.
- refurb 5y ago
  ”Just because you don't know what the plan is, doesn't mean there isn't one.” This is exactly what I’d say if I didn’t have a plan. Wasn’t it BC that manipulated covid cases in the hospital setting and had to own up to the correct data? And no, the current vaccines aren’t getting us out of this. Look at Singapore with 95% of eligible population vaccinated - they had a raging wave last month where 80%+ of the cases were fully vaccinated. The vaccines keep them out of the hospital but don’t seem to do much for infection or transmission risk (see Lancet analysis).
  - busymom0 5y ago
    Even Ontario has 76% of cases in fully vaccinated while having a 77% full vaccination rate in the population. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected.
    - jollybean 5y ago
      That is basically not true, by your own reference. Did you mix up the colours on the chart? Most of those hospitalized are unvaccinated. Since June, by far most cases are among the unvaccinated. Given a ~75% vaccination rate, the fact that >75% of cases are 'unvaccinated' implies strongly that this is an issue of unvaccinated - both in 'spread' and number hospitalized. The only place the data diverges is in the last 2 weeks - i.e Omicron where the gap is closing with less vaccine protections, however, the data out is indicating the Booster shot is as effective against Omicron as it was against Delta. As Boosters are given out, you'll again see the big gap of spread/hospitalzattions among unvaccinated, with the caveat that Omicron may possibly not be as likely to put people in the hospital.
      - busymom0 5y ago
        So you agree that "Given a ~75% vaccination rate, the fact that >75% of cases are 'unvaccinated' implies strongly that this is an issue of unvaccinated - both in 'spread' and number hospitalized." but then you also say "That is basically not true, by your own reference."?? That doesn't make logical sense. Like I have said before, it's a potential severe symptom mitigator which also wanes off over few months. That doesn't mean it prevents transmission or infection. My comment was in reference to "vaccine passports" which make no logical sense when they don't prevent infection or transmission. Also, the hospitalizations and deaths are vastly in elderly, obese or immunocompromised. It makes no sense to force it on young, fit and healthy people, especially not on kids. You are aware that Pfizer is already talking about a 4th shot right? How many more shots do you suggest people should take?
- busymom0 5y ago
  > The data from all the provinces fairly clearly shows that the pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed, to the point that if we had near 100% vaxx, I'm not sure if R0 would be anywhere near 1, i.e. it could not spread. That said, Omicron is a game-changer in that regard. This is entirely wrong. There's now over 15 studies showing that vaccinated, even in mild cases, have the same viral load as the unvaccinated, especially after 2-6 months of the shots. This shot is not preventing transmission as has been clearly shown several times now - before omicron. If the shots don't prevent transmission and mild cases have same viral load, then the R0 is unaffected. Also Ontario has 76% of cases in fully vaccinated while having a 77% full vaccination rate in the population. Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data So it's not "pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed". This lie being repeated again and again is how we ended up in this situation where triple vaccinated people are now being surprised that they caught covid. The shots are merely a potential severe symptom mitigator and might be useful if you are old, obese or have health conditions. The mandates of something which doesn't prevent transmission has been the most illogical thing to ever come out of the government. The cafeterias at malls have these waist high metal barricades to prevent unvaccinated from sitting down in the cafeteria and they are checking vaccine status to enter inside the metal barricaded area. The entire thing has air exchange with outside the barricade. It's the most illogical thing I have ever seen.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    Your logic is flawed. 1) "That some studies show similar viral loads" - does not tell us about the net transmissiblity of the different populations. You have to get COVID in the first place in order to have a 'viral load', but that inference won't take into account those who don't get it. 2) From BC's late August Report (it was the first one that came up when I Googled): "From Aug. 13-26, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 81.7% of cases and 85.8% of hospitalizations." FYI they had 75% of the over age 12 with 1 dose and 85% with 2 doses at that time. (Same reference) The data is decisive and shows that the virus is overwhelmingly spreading among the unvaccinated part of the population - and clearly a factor in the R0. At that point, the unvaccinated make up ~25% of the population and 80% of the cases. 3) Hospital resources are being drained by the unvaccinated. There are some people who legit cannot take it, and there are some people who are, let's just say, 'truly mentally deficient' who we can't hold accountable for their actions. But the vast majority of the 'unvaccinated' are irrationally and irresponsibly making a choice that is not only creating a much greater burden to the Health Care system - but they are also materially helping the disease spread. ---> COVID mostly a plague of the unvaccinated and they are externalizing harm and cost to others. [1] https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021HLTH0054-001704 https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021HLTH0054-001704
Mikeb85 5y ago
> What's the plan? To prevent Canada's shitty health care system from being exposed. We've got like half the capacity of the EU average and multiples less than the US...
- jollybean 5y ago
  This is not true. Hospital beds/capita by nation [1] Moreover, Canada's response to COVID has resulted in considerably fewer deaths, less than 40% the rate of the US. While there are issues with the system overall, this isn't it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    If you live in Canada you should know that hospital beds != capacity since we don't have the staff to operate them. Our actual capacity for Covid patients is far less due to staffing and equipment issues. The EU has twice as many doctors per capita as we do. The US has more everything than we do. Edit - I'd also look at all-cause mortality when the dust settles. Canada currently has an epidemic of late diagnosed cancers right now, for example.
    - jollybean 5y ago
      This is not true either. In Canada, Hospital beds do map to capacity. The UK, US and Canada have roughly the same ballpark 'beds' and also 'physicians' per capita. In the last 25 years they have taken the policy of 'getting you out', which is rational. After an operation, if you don't have obvious signs of problems, you go home. In Japan, where they have 4x the number of beds, you linger in the Hospital. Maybe a better figure to look at would be the speed of treatment etc.
      - Mikeb85 5y ago
        UK and Japan are among the lowest physicians per capita in the OECD. UK still higher than Canada though. https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940 https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940 Anyhow Canada is pretty low on the list, nearly every EU country is higher, as is the UK and US.

by totony 5y ago

sudosysgen 5y ago

The plan is to prevent the hospitals from bursting way over capacity, and letting it do what it wants otherwise, basically.

jollybean 5y ago

The public health agencies put out a lot of information, if you want a good example of one go look at Bonnie Henry (British Coloumbia) weekly addresses, she goes into great detail about measures taken etc.. They'll tell you exactly the genetic breakdown of the variants, which groups are getting what and why, whether it's schools, travellers, unvaccinated, homes, they'll tell you how many beds, how many 'overfill beds' how many surgeries postponed, how many staff, how many left due to no vaxx etc.. Just because you don't know what the plan is, doesn't mean there isn't one. Provincial and Federal entities are in constant contact with their peers in Europe, the US the WHO etc. there's a lot of information going around. Anyone who has been in such dynamic operational circumstances (i.e. the Army / Armed Forces) knows what facing chaos is, and generally speaking, as the saying goes 'No Plan Survives Contact' - it's more about managing information, preparedness/training than any kind of specific tactic. And FYI, the #1 tactic by far, thus far, has been vaccines. The data from all the provinces fairly clearly shows that the pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed, to the point that if we had near 100% vaxx, I'm not sure if R0 would be anywhere near 1, i.e. it could not spread. That said, Omicron is a game-changer in that regard.

refurb 5y ago
”Just because you don't know what the plan is, doesn't mean there isn't one.” This is exactly what I’d say if I didn’t have a plan. Wasn’t it BC that manipulated covid cases in the hospital setting and had to own up to the correct data? And no, the current vaccines aren’t getting us out of this. Look at Singapore with 95% of eligible population vaccinated - they had a raging wave last month where 80%+ of the cases were fully vaccinated. The vaccines keep them out of the hospital but don’t seem to do much for infection or transmission risk (see Lancet analysis).
- busymom0 5y ago
  Even Ontario has 76% of cases in fully vaccinated while having a 77% full vaccination rate in the population. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    That is basically not true, by your own reference. Did you mix up the colours on the chart? Most of those hospitalized are unvaccinated. Since June, by far most cases are among the unvaccinated. Given a ~75% vaccination rate, the fact that >75% of cases are 'unvaccinated' implies strongly that this is an issue of unvaccinated - both in 'spread' and number hospitalized. The only place the data diverges is in the last 2 weeks - i.e Omicron where the gap is closing with less vaccine protections, however, the data out is indicating the Booster shot is as effective against Omicron as it was against Delta. As Boosters are given out, you'll again see the big gap of spread/hospitalzattions among unvaccinated, with the caveat that Omicron may possibly not be as likely to put people in the hospital.
    - busymom0 5y ago
      So you agree that "Given a ~75% vaccination rate, the fact that >75% of cases are 'unvaccinated' implies strongly that this is an issue of unvaccinated - both in 'spread' and number hospitalized." but then you also say "That is basically not true, by your own reference."?? That doesn't make logical sense. Like I have said before, it's a potential severe symptom mitigator which also wanes off over few months. That doesn't mean it prevents transmission or infection. My comment was in reference to "vaccine passports" which make no logical sense when they don't prevent infection or transmission. Also, the hospitalizations and deaths are vastly in elderly, obese or immunocompromised. It makes no sense to force it on young, fit and healthy people, especially not on kids. You are aware that Pfizer is already talking about a 4th shot right? How many more shots do you suggest people should take?
busymom0 5y ago
> The data from all the provinces fairly clearly shows that the pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed, to the point that if we had near 100% vaxx, I'm not sure if R0 would be anywhere near 1, i.e. it could not spread. That said, Omicron is a game-changer in that regard. This is entirely wrong. There's now over 15 studies showing that vaccinated, even in mild cases, have the same viral load as the unvaccinated, especially after 2-6 months of the shots. This shot is not preventing transmission as has been clearly shown several times now - before omicron. If the shots don't prevent transmission and mild cases have same viral load, then the R0 is unaffected. Also Ontario has 76% of cases in fully vaccinated while having a 77% full vaccination rate in the population. Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data So it's not "pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed". This lie being repeated again and again is how we ended up in this situation where triple vaccinated people are now being surprised that they caught covid. The shots are merely a potential severe symptom mitigator and might be useful if you are old, obese or have health conditions. The mandates of something which doesn't prevent transmission has been the most illogical thing to ever come out of the government. The cafeterias at malls have these waist high metal barricades to prevent unvaccinated from sitting down in the cafeteria and they are checking vaccine status to enter inside the metal barricaded area. The entire thing has air exchange with outside the barricade. It's the most illogical thing I have ever seen.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Your logic is flawed. 1) "That some studies show similar viral loads" - does not tell us about the net transmissiblity of the different populations. You have to get COVID in the first place in order to have a 'viral load', but that inference won't take into account those who don't get it. 2) From BC's late August Report (it was the first one that came up when I Googled): "From Aug. 13-26, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 81.7% of cases and 85.8% of hospitalizations." FYI they had 75% of the over age 12 with 1 dose and 85% with 2 doses at that time. (Same reference) The data is decisive and shows that the virus is overwhelmingly spreading among the unvaccinated part of the population - and clearly a factor in the R0. At that point, the unvaccinated make up ~25% of the population and 80% of the cases. 3) Hospital resources are being drained by the unvaccinated. There are some people who legit cannot take it, and there are some people who are, let's just say, 'truly mentally deficient' who we can't hold accountable for their actions. But the vast majority of the 'unvaccinated' are irrationally and irresponsibly making a choice that is not only creating a much greater burden to the Health Care system - but they are also materially helping the disease spread. ---> COVID mostly a plague of the unvaccinated and they are externalizing harm and cost to others. [1] https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021HLTH0054-001704 https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021HLTH0054-001704

Mikeb85 5y ago

> What's the plan? To prevent Canada's shitty health care system from being exposed. We've got like half the capacity of the EU average and multiples less than the US...

jollybean 5y ago
This is not true. Hospital beds/capita by nation [1] Moreover, Canada's response to COVID has resulted in considerably fewer deaths, less than 40% the rate of the US. While there are issues with the system overall, this isn't it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  If you live in Canada you should know that hospital beds != capacity since we don't have the staff to operate them. Our actual capacity for Covid patients is far less due to staffing and equipment issues. The EU has twice as many doctors per capita as we do. The US has more everything than we do. Edit - I'd also look at all-cause mortality when the dust settles. Canada currently has an epidemic of late diagnosed cancers right now, for example.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    This is not true either. In Canada, Hospital beds do map to capacity. The UK, US and Canada have roughly the same ballpark 'beds' and also 'physicians' per capita. In the last 25 years they have taken the policy of 'getting you out', which is rational. After an operation, if you don't have obvious signs of problems, you go home. In Japan, where they have 4x the number of beds, you linger in the Hospital. Maybe a better figure to look at would be the speed of treatment etc.
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      UK and Japan are among the lowest physicians per capita in the OECD. UK still higher than Canada though. https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940 https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940 Anyhow Canada is pretty low on the list, nearly every EU country is higher, as is the UK and US.