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The gaming sector has already been struggling with a (relative) lack of AAA content and incomplete releases with quality issues. I can’t help but wonder if we’
by kiawe_fire 5y ago
The gaming sector has already been struggling with a (relative) lack of AAA content and incomplete releases with quality issues.
I can’t help but wonder if we’re in for a rough couple of years in the market with all of the additional tumult.
Granted much of the tumult is a direct result of the conditions that caused quality issues in the first place.
I’ve often argued that AAA games are just too big, and gamer expectations too unreasonable to be sustainable. (Not that I mean to excuse poor management as a leading factor).
Perhaps we’ll see an eventual changing of the guard and a reset to a more sustainable market, closer to what we had in the 90s?
- crate_barre 5y agoAs a gamer, I can say we are a fickle bunch. We’re no different that pop-song listeners at this point. We love it when it’s a hit, and we’ll play it out until we can’t stand it anymore and never look back. If you make an indie game or a big budget one, you are vulnerable to this fickle crowd. You are better off hyping the living hell out of a game and cashing in the initial few months than you are to build a modest game with a community that will stick around. It was never really like this, I’m not sure what happened. I really don’t know where it all went wrong. It’s a hits driven industry at this point.
- oneepic 5y agoI'm going to go ahead and guess platforms like social media/twitch/etc encourage us to keep looking at the next thing instead of looking at what we have. Meaning the previews look great but they dont translate into lasting experiences.
- gjhh244 5y agoYeah, I don't really get why some people buy all this hype and even preorder stuff. Maybe I'm getting old, but I just don't care anymore for most of the new stuff, no matter how fancy the looks. I downgraded my PC and only play indie / decade old AAA nowadays, with only few exceptions which are mostly niche strategy games.
- kiawe_fire 5y agoFunny enough, those niche strategy games are, IMO, a great example of middle ground that I think is missing in the industry. We have a thriving indie scene full of pixel art action platformers, RPGs, and rogue-likes, often built by a couple dozen developers at most. And we have the AAA scene that is expected to eke out every bit of performance and effects out of your RTX 3080, often developed by hundreds of people. What about something in between? Some of the newer strategy games have great, polished visuals with some modern sensibilities, but they aren't super high budget productions with infinitely detailed high res textures and countless objects filling every scene. But neither are they going for some C&C or Dune 2 inspired pixel retro look. And the player base is just fine with that. As long as there is a certain sense of polish and creative direction to the art, then the most important part is "is the game fun?", "does it have solid gameplay systems", "is it balanced", those sorts of things. This space doesn't really exist much for first person shooters or third person action games. There have been a couple of examples (Yooka-Laylie, A Hat in Time, Pumpkin Jack?) and certainly some rogue-likes like Strafe or Ziggurat that come close, but the market seems small and spotty. I'd argue in part because player expectations don't allow for this as much in the FPS space as they do in the strategy space.
- meheleventyone 5y agoGames has been a hit driven industry really since it started. Having a longer tail is really a very recent trend. That’s why everyone wants an evergreen GaaS setup. Get a steady annual income and you can float about burning money. You might not even need another hit for decades.
- michaelt 5y agoI'm a non-gamer, but my impression is the opposite. We programmers expect all our tools and libraries to be not only free, but open source too, and then will bitch if they have bugs. Gamers, though? AAA games release with loads of bugs, clunky DRM/anti-cheat rootkits, often have cheat problems anyway, hundred-gigabyte downloads, online services going down on christmas day, online voice chat full of race hate? They'll pre-order before a single review has come out, at a cost of $70. These are some of the least fussy customers in the world.
- oneepic 5y agoIt really depends on where these players live. A significant number of them read Reddit and Steam reviews, watch YouTube gaming channels, hate Activision/EA/Blizzard/etc big companies and swear against buying their games... but there's tons of buyers outside of the Internet who don't listen to all that. Lots of people just buy games from companies they know. Moreover, lots of these people are parents/grandparents/aunts/uncles who know nothing except the company name, and know the names of stuff their kids are talking about... and they go buy those games for Christmas. The latter buyers are often disconnected from the real players of those games.
- crate_barre 5y agoWe’re a little different in software because we are apart of the ecosystem. We get to ‘add value’ to open source for our employers. All the more reason to give back for sure. But imagine the gaming industry, where millions of consumers have no ability to establish equity (not even in the form of a career). You won’t be able to add anything back to Call of Duty, other than you playing it (as if it were Facebook, and you were just a profile). That’s all they have, and they pay for it. We on the other hand, can use the open source thing, or roll our own, or pick another thing that’s freer. That’s why we don’t pay 70 bucks.
- kiawe_fire 5y agoSome of this exists in open source projects, where you'll see non-coders or novice coders demand that their most wanted bug be fixed, and they'll storm around the Github issues harassing people for not prioritizing their needs over the project as a whole. But in general, yes, there is an heir of entitlement in the gaming space right now. The most harmful, IMO, is the knee-jerk visual shaming of every game. We can criticize the devs and publishers for focusing on graphics over fun, but it's a chicken-and-egg problem. When every game trailer or demo is immediately torn apart for "not looking amazing enough", and every non-critical visual bug of a player model's hair clipping into her face is turned into a meme, it shouldn't be a surprise that the focus is on screenshot worthy visuals first, and gameplay can be "fixed later". It is a hits driven industry, but the stakes for making that hit are high, and often times the things you need to do to get buzz before release is mutually exclusive with the things it takes to keep the player base after release. There's also the reactive demands to "just give me this game mode" or "just nerf this weapon" without realizing how much work goes into implementing things in a balanced and fun way. If you've never sat down with a game idea and coded a demo with stick figures before, then you've probably never had that moment where you realize the idea you had in your head just doesn't work when implemented. Or, conversely, how you can then tweak a couple variables and make it unexpectedly fun in ways you never would have thought of otherwise. That said, I would LOVE a return to modding and more open source extensibility to gaming to converge the two.
- kibwen 5y agoThe paradox is that it feels like better hardware is making AAA gaming worse overall. In order to be taken seriously as "AAA" a developer feels like they cannot choose not to use the hardware to its fullest. Modern hardware means that we can have huge, open, living worlds, so every AAA game must have a huge, open, living world, enormously inflating development costs both in terms of scale and complexity. Likewise, modern hardware means that we can have beautiful, photorealistic graphics, so every AAA game must have beautiful, photorealistic graphics, massively inflating the budget due to hiring so many artists to make those assets, resulting in games that can't afford to take risks because of how much investment has been put into them. The temptation to do this has always existed, but now technology (and gamer expectations) has advanced far beyond the ability of game devs to scale. > Perhaps we’ll see an eventual changing of the guard and a reset to a more sustainable market, closer to what we had in the 90s? How about a different point of view: the 90s originated this problem. The advent of 3D hardware meant that every game had to be 3D. The shame is that with the prior generation (SNES et al) we were just mastering the art of 2D games, but suddenly all that gets chucked out the window (or nearly all, see Symphony Of The Night as the exception that proves the rule) in favor of crude, clunky, first-gen 3D adaptations. It wasn't until the mid-2000s that the advent of modern indie gaming would pick up the thread of 2D games, resulting in some of the best gaming experiences I've had. Maybe ten years from now AAA studios will at last feel free from the obligatory burden of pushing hardware to its limit and will content themselves with putting out games that are less technologically ambitious (and put some fraction of the saved effort towards something else, like storytelling or game mechanics).
- Dracophoenix 5y ago>The paradox is that it feels like better hardware is making AAA gaming The advent of 3D hardware meant that every game had to be 3D. The shame is that with the prior generation (SNES et al) we were just mastering the art of 2D games, but suddenly all that gets chucked out the window (or nearly all, see Symphony Of The Night as the exception that proves the rule) in favor of crude, clunky, first-gen 3D adaptations. If we don't do anything new, how do you expect things to get better? SNES games wouldn't exist if Nintendo decided to remain as a trading card merchant on the basis that electronics would piss away a century's worth of hard work in "mastering" the trading card market. And besides, early attempts at 3d on the N64 were a success. Super Mario 64 is still one of the most influential games to this day.
- LegitShady 5y agoThe market is large enough that I don't see why its important in any way. If one company you like has a major failure or even gets bought out by a larger firm, there are a lot of alternatives who can compete for your time and attention. What constitutes a 'rough couple years' for the market? The guard changed and like hollywood, the accountants and inbred corporate boards are in charge forevermore. Massive gamer expectations don't exist in a vacuum, they exist because the AAA game space is heavily marketing for the purpose of building hype and expectation. It's on purpose. once in a while there's an anthem or cyberpunk level implosion but why do they care when they're raking in billions in microtransactions? That's just the cost of doing business. The companies release incomplete low content games because people keep buying them and the profit is massive. There's too much money to be made in microtransactions and repeat fees like season passes. There have been a few large notable failures but their net loss is much smaller than the massive income through microtransactions. We will never return to a 'sustainable market' because the market is all about companies trying both the existing things and new things to maximize profit and minimize cost, and others copying. The market is thus always in tumult and is never sustainable, with some firms failing and some firms succeeding at different times based on the ebb and flow of whatever the current events are at the time.
- bob1029 5y ago> I’ve often argued that AAA games are just too big, and gamer expectations too unreasonable to be sustainable. The most recent AAA game that I have attempted is Battlefield 2042. I managed to force about 7 hours of that game in, and probably won't be able to convince myself to go back for more. I had maybe ~15 minutes of fun across that interval. You could probably flip a coin to determine if my experience was adverse because of rushed buggy garbage, or if it was a bad gameplay concept to begin with (i.e. ridiculous scope). I still find myself playing older games like Overwatch, League of Legends and Minecraft with far more frequency than anything else out there. Maybe I've become jaded or burned out on gaming, but something in my head keeps saying that these studios just aren't trying anymore. What is it about one of these "older" titles that can keep me playing for 5-6 hours per day that we cannot seem to capture and move into newer titles? Maybe this is just me and everything is fine...
- ethbr0 5y agoNew AAA games feel like what you get when you digest a previously popular title through "What did you like?" focus groups, generate a list of checkbox features, write a game spec from that list, and then make that game. And at no point is anyone in the room asking "Is it fun?"
- bob1029 5y ago> And at no point is anyone in the room asking "Is it fun?" Would it be economically infeasible or otherwise unattractive to investors to propose a new game development business where "Is it fun?" is the only question that matters? Presumably, you have access to this entire marketplace of exiled ubisoft/blizzard/et.al. employees, so maybe the formal business plan starts with acquiring some of this talent and determining what projects they might want to work on.
- ethbr0 5y agoEssentially, that's Nintendo's first-party business model (or at least as close as it gets in the industry). But the "acquiring some of this talent and determining what projects they might want to work on" is the standard bloodletting that happened every few decades in the game industry. Usually, this resulted in the next Blizzard, Westwood, Dynamix, etc. being founded, growing, and then dissolving into the next wave of smaller companies. But it's been screwed up the past cycle though, as the investment required to make AAA-level games was only available from large publishers, who set terms that generally resulted in development studio bankruptcy and subsequent buyout-by and incorporation-into the publisher. Which is how you got your Activision Blizzard, EA, Take-Two, Ubisoft arrangement.
- lampe3 5y agoExcept Nintendo games I only play indie games. They are like the games in the 90s or 00s. So yeah we have this market its just not were these AAA companies play. Some cool indies: - Shovel Knight - Hades - Deep Rock Galactic - papers please! - unnamed goose game - Probably more which I forgot
- pfraze 5y agoI think the shift to "games as a service" or calling a game a "platform" is a reflection of what's happening here. To my knowledge, Halo Infinite, Roblox, CoD, Battlefield, and Fortnight have called their games platforms. Riot is doing something kind of similar with funding indie studious to build on their tech and IP. What they generally mean is that they're moving away from releasing new games/versions every N years and instead continuously updating a single release with new content, modes, and so on. From a product perspective, this makes a lot sense to me. We're past the era when new releases diverge significantly from their past versions. This approach of continuously updating an existing game has already been happening for a while with Fortnight and CoD, and it's led to a lot of variety with much less friction to getting the new experience. From an economic perspective, I assume it's a lot cheaper to develop updates than new releases, and a lot of them can monetize with cosmetics. If we're doing platforms, I'd love to see modding culture make a big comeback this way - more of what Roblox is doing, but with something aimed at adults. The old days of Halflife and Warcraft 3 mods were so huge in my childhood, and I feel like it's a huge missed opportunity by these studios not to tap into this more.
- raxxorrax 5y agoDoesn't really scale, as you mostly have one or two games per genre that will become dominant. I fear this approach would actually kill any user generated content. The king of user generated content are probably still the elder scrolls games, but I doubt they will develop anything like that ever again because it fails to make a business case against something like fortnite, even if the probability to develop the next craze is quite slim. I believe their latest online versions don't leaver many possibilities for modders
- Reichhardt 5y agoThe huge 30% commissions charged by Sony, Microsoft, Valve, Nintendo, Apple, Google are a huge negative factor to the potential profits of the industry. On top of that, you have sales taxes from every country in the world, which are creeping upwards globally. For every $1 of customer spending, typically only 50-60c reaches the developer. In most other Tech sectors, you can go straight to customer, without platform commissions or taxes, and the profitability and salaries reflect that. All of the profits in Gamedev are taken by platform holders.
- yjftsjthsd-h 5y agohttps://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UBSFY/ubisoft-entertainment/gross-profit https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UBSFY/ubisoft-ente... lists "Annual Gross Profit (Millions of US $)" => 2021 $2,217. I think they're doing fine.