14 ms·

Moderna booster increased neutralizing antibody levels against Omicron ~37-fold

91 points by KoftaBob 5y ago

1cvmask 5y ago
So how does this compare to all the other boosters?
- GuB-42 5y ago
  From the few information that we have now, it looks similar to Pfizer/BioNTech. Better if you get a full dose instead of the usual half dose.
formichunter 5y ago
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03672-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03672-3 Best I could find says 40x better protection which isn’t the same comparison in above article.
trhway 5y ago
sounds like vaccine marketing is crossing into the "25% more nuts and 8g protein per serving" territory. I suppose that regular consumer isnt ready to evaluate all the aspects of the difference between say 20-fold and 37-fold antibody levels beside the "bigger is better" (is it? does high antibody levels come for free? i remember a study where methotrexate treatment to kill B-cells which were of high levels after flu cured Chronic Fatigue Syndrome for example).
- amznbyebyebye 5y ago
  Shame you’re being downvoted and people don’t get that there might be just a small conflict of interest for the Pfizer ceo to be the one dictating that we need a fourth vaccine. [1] [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/08/omicron-pfizer-ceo-says-we-may-need-fourth-covid-vaccine-doses-sooner-than-expected.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/08/omi...
  - crate_barre 5y ago
    Us sheep will put up with this one, if it’s the last one. Just this one last booster. Now if we tread into the 4th or 5th booster for the n-th variant, then that’s my breaking point and I will have to call out the shenanigans. Moderna’s revenue since 2016: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107794/revenue-and-net-income-moderna-inc/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107794/revenue-and-net-... These companies certainly don’t mind the state of things.
    - beervirus 5y ago
      Why? We get a flu booster every year, and that’s fine. I’m happy to get a shot every so often if it means I can go about my life like normal.
      - crate_barre 5y ago
        You don’t lose your job for not getting the flu vaccine. Again, it’s an unprecedented situation and I’ll accept the mandate for the three shots, but this has to have an end at some point.
        amznbyebyebye 5y ago
        Why is it three? Why can’t they make it effective with one vaccine? Hmm maybe because three vaccines is 3x the revenue they get vs. from one vaccine. They’re just not incentivized for our long term health and well being. It is a pure capitalism.
        gambiting 5y ago
        >>Why can’t they make it effective with one vaccine? There are actual technical and medical answers to this, but somehow I have a feeling you aren't interested in knowing them.
        amznbyebyebye 5y ago
- refurb 5y ago
  I’ve been on the other side of these types of press releases and you’re exactly right. Always report the most “impressive” numbers even if you know they don’t actually translate to a difference in outcome (usually because you don’t have that data yet).
- podgaj 5y ago
  I want to know why they never fully investigate why there is such a disparity of outcomes between people who catch SARS2. One can say obesity, but what does that mean physiologically? Is it just they already how too much inflammation? https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.119.315896 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.119.... Of is it that they are deficiency in some nutrient that causes the inflammation? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0946672X20301802 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09466... https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fsn3.2203 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fsn3.2203 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12011-020-02060-8 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12011-020-02060-8 Vaccines are the low hanging fruit but they are obviously are not working so well. Maybe we should all be talking about human nutrition a bit more.
  - simonh 5y ago
    >I want to know why they never fully investigate why there is such a disparity of outcomes between people who catch SARS2. It's been, and is being very intensively investigated. We know an awful lot about some aspects of it, but the factors that lead to different immune system responses are very difficult to figure out despite many decades of research into the mechanisms. In the first instance, the specific sites and pathways in the body the virus initially infects and propagates through make a big difference. It might initially infect the nasal passage, throat, lungs or even the nervous system. Even the specific sites in those areas and the initial viral load make a big difference to the progression of the disease. As the infection spreads the many, many different combinations of which systems in the body are infected, in what order, how severely and in combination with what stages in the immune response, together with the weaknesses and strengths of different systems in an individual leads to a massive explosion in the number of possible different scenarios and hence likely outcomes. A big problem though is our limited understanding of the various failure modes of the immune system, or at least in our ability to manage it. Inflamation is our immune system causing collateral damage to our own bodies. There are many, many diseases related to this and they can all be extremely difficult to treat.
    - podgaj 5y ago
ReptileMan 5y ago
And what is difference in outcomes? That's the important stuff.
zibzab 5y ago
But how does this reduce over time?
- Arnt 5y ago
  This concerns omicron, and omicron is a quick worker. The British measured its doubling time to 1.5 days in London, which means that it goes from one infectee to a million in just a month. What happens later is not really significant.
  - zibzab 5y ago
    No, I meant how does the booster effect reduces over time. The effectiveness of the first two over time went down much quicker than initially anticipated. The question is if the 3rd shot is somehow different.
    - mattrighetti 5y ago
      Nobody knows for now since I haven't read any official study/data on that. One thing for sure is that it is likely to follow the path of the previous two shots: antibodies are going to fade with time but you will still be protected against severe illness.
    - Arnt 5y ago
      I see. It has to be an improvement AIUI, but how large is an open question still.
greatpatton 5y ago
Seems from this case in Norway (https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.50.2101147 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...) that Moderna is a tad bit better at preventing infection from Omicron, but when you see the overall number of cases among fully vaccinated people I'm not very optimistic that vaccine with do something at limiting the spread of infection, however I'm optimistic that they will still be efficient to prevent severe disease.
- beervirus 5y ago
  > When asked to grade the severity of symptoms on a scale from 1 (no symptoms) to 5 (significant symptoms), 42% (33/79) reported level 3 symptoms, whereas 11% (9/79) reported level 4 symptoms. None of the cases required hospitalisation up to 13 December 2021. I am extremely optimistic.
  - pixiemaster 5y ago
    in terms of covid hospitalisations overwhelming our hospitals: i‘m optimistic as well that this might not happen at scale. but in terms of a large part of society getting sick (level 3 still makes you stick in bed) at the same time - this will lead to worker shortage - i’m kind of neutral-pessimistic. in terms of longterm long covid effect on our demographic - i’m fearful. in terms of society getting their act together to avert anything of this: absolutely pessimistic.
    - zrail 5y ago
      > in terms of covid hospitalisations overwhelming our hospitals: i‘m optimistic as well that this might not happen at scale. I see no reason for this optimism. Every hospital that I know of in SE Michigan has been over capacity for several weeks. We have gotten regular emails from both hospital systems in Ann Arbor begging everyone to get vaccinated.
      - toolz 5y ago
        This is inaccurate https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-5236...
Proven 5y ago
NomeChomsky 5y ago
- antocv 5y ago
  Look at the data per age group and per sex, when looking at 0-99 all 3 sexes does not tell the full story since 65+ have totally different risks from covid-19 than 20-29.
  - NomeChomsky 5y ago
    - rsfern 5y ago
      This study isn’t based on VAERS data, it’s from the UK. The design tracks their medical record system, under reporting shouldn’t be a big concern Edit: > We assessed the temporal association between COVID-19 vaccination and cardiac adverse events using hospital admissions with diagnoses of myocarditis or pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias. Maybe there is differential reporting based on who shows up at the hospital with Covid vs just vaccine induced side effects, but it’s sort of hard to design a large scale study to pin this down. The methodology seems sound enough to fairly track at least those ill enough to go to the hospital
- nojito 5y ago
  How is this a bombshell? VAERS data isn’t reliable and should not be used to determine adverse reactions.
  - rsfern 5y ago
    This isn’t based on VAERS, it’s a uk study using NHS records. Also I think OP’s summary is kind of misleading
  - incrudible 5y ago
    > VAERS data isn’t reliable and should not be used to determine adverse reactions. FDA and CDC do use VAERS as their source for estimating risk of adverse events: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/03-COVID-Su-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download (page 23)
T3RMINATED 5y ago
kypro 5y ago
I only realised how serious a threat omicron was when I looked at the South African data recently and you can see how much of a impact it's had on deaths in a largely unvaccinated population. Even if you just compare the case numbers in South Africa to the UK (where most are double or triple vaxed) you get a good idea of how well vaccines are working. For example, in South Africa deaths have gone from about ~15 a day before omicron to ~30 a day since the variant was first identified, which is terrifying. And in South Africa they have around 20,000 new cases a day compared to about 80,000 in the UK -- imagine how much worse it would be in the UK right now if they weren't vaccinated. Anyone still doubting the efficacy of triple vaccination in healthy populations really needs to look at the data. The South African health authorities are wrong, omicron is a serious threat to our health and if we must fire a few people to ensure another successful Pfizer vaccine rollout, then so be it. Apologies for the sarcasm, but as some with COVID antibodies from a prior infection which I recovered from in about a day, I am genuinely getting frustrated by how much fear and pressure the government is pushing on me to get vaccinated every few months, when the data on how effective they are at managing the pandemic (even after several doses) seems completely inconclusive. Even if this booster did prevent infection by any substantial amount, are we sure we all need them? And further, are we sure the risk justifies governments and employers pushing them on us via the rollout of various mandates and health passports?
- simonh 5y ago
  I think you're right overall, but that the data doesn't yet support the conclusion. Omicron got traction in the UK at least a week later than SA, probably 2 weeks, so the death rate will lag by the same margin. We need to compare the death rate in the UK now to the death rate in SA a few weeks ago. All the early indications are that the complete data will support your conclusion when it comes in, but frustrating as it is we'll have to wait and see.
  - kypro 5y ago
    So in terms of a government response do we care about data now or are we at the point where we just restrict liberties and mandate vaccines assuming the worst possible scenario every time something changes? I guess if we're lucky when the data shows they over reacted they might give some liberties back and hopefully the vaccine rollout won't result in too many adverse side effects. Common.. This is insanity. I honestly don't know what you're arguing for here. I don't care if people take the vaccine or what the outcome of omicron is, my issue is with the government response given the data we have. The data supporting the use of vaccines to tackle omicron is extremely questionable. And that's not even mentioning the fact that it's already questionable enough to mandate COVID vaccines on healthy individuals given recent data suggesting those vaccinated have less robust immune responses to COVID and all of its potential future variants.
ed_balls 5y ago
Meta: Let say I'm 30 years old, healthy, vaccinated with JJ over 6 months ago. Denmark, Sweden, Finland have banned Moderna for younger than 30. Some countries were recommending it to people over 50. Whole communication is a mess. Should I get a booster shot? What are the pros and cons? Is there any data on that? I asked a friend doctor and she said that I should get a test for antibody count (a lab one, not garbage test you can buy anywhere) I was quite sick from the last shot so I'd like to avoid it. I probably had Covid in April 2020. (no tests, I had a unusually mild cold-like symptoms and my partner lost the sense of taste for a few days) Risks (Yes, I know some of them are extremely small) - Booster won't help with stopping transmission - myocarditis[1], allergy reaction (boosters are only Pfizer and Moderna, which I haven't taken), driving to and from, catching COVID and other diseases in the walk-in centre. - I could spread COVID to people in the queue for booster shots, doctors and nurses. [1]hence the ban it for younger males in some countries.
- nharada 5y ago
  I'd get it -- J&J is already known to be weaker coverage, and Omicron spreads so easily that the odds you get COVID are fairly high if you interact with people regularly. If you're looking at it from a sickness perspective, the expected value of sickness without the shot is probably higher (lower chance of many days of feeling bad vs high chance of a single day). Single person anecdote: I was quite sick from J&J and had zero symptoms from my booster. So just know it's not necessarily guaranteed you'll be sick from this one too if that's your main concern.
  - gandutraveler 5y ago
    Same for me. I had J&J and now moderna booster. Other than mild body pain and tiredness, booster was pretty smooth. Maybe because it's a half dosage
    - jaclaz 5y ago
      I don't know, I got all three shots of Moderna (two doses at 1 month interval in the summer + booster last week): 1) first dose: nothing 2) second dose: some (minor) pain in the arm I received the shot, that lasted only the morning after I got the dose (that I got around 21:00, so I probably was sleeping when it began) 3) booster (half dose): same (a little stronger) pain in the arm, nothing relvant but this time it lasted a couple days + and it was accompanied by some - cannot really describe it - slight fogginess in my brain, again nothing serious, just the feeling of not being 100% prompt/reactive Given that this time it was half dose, I tend to believe that while in July I was probably in a better overall status before the dose due to the season (or whatever). Exactly the same happened to my wife (we had together all the shots).
massysett 5y ago
If my net worth is 1 cent, and I pick up 37 cents on the street, I’ve increased my net worth over 37-fold. But I’m still worth only 38 cents. Maybe I can buy a gumball. Maybe. 37-fold is meaningless. Unfortunately this press release doesn’t have anything more useful either.
- throwawayfear 5y ago
- cracell 5y ago
  "Salesman says product he's selling is great!"
- simonh 5y ago
  Compared to not having the booster (but being previously vaccinated). >37-fold compared to pre-boost levels It's there in the first paragraph. Why are you doing this?
  - funcDropShadow 5y ago
    Neutralising antibody levels are not in a linear correlation with protection from Covid infection or prevention of a severe illness. Lot's of biological measurements have to be interpreted on a log scale. I.e. it is not obvious how much difference that makes. But it definitely improves protection.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - xboxnolifes 5y ago
    GP didn't ask "compared to what". They said that showing an increase is not relevant without knowing the base value amount (or final value amount). Or hell, what the implications of the increase are in meaningful terms. Is this more than expected from a booster? Less? About the same? I get this is a report to investors so I'm not the target audience, but unless the reader is familiar with the field, it's just "big number increase good".
zosima 5y ago
This number is unfortunately fairly meaningless. Neutralizing antibody-titer is of course somewhat related to ability to resist infection, but how much is unclear. Also there is no reason to expect the antibody-titer to stay high and it will probably go down quite a lot within the next 3-6 months, just like antibody-titers did after first round of vaccinations and seems to do after Covid-infection. At this point it almost seems a bit disingenuous for Moderna to not study and publish numbers on expected antibody-titer half-life.

91 points by KoftaBob 5y ago

1cvmask 5y ago

So how does this compare to all the other boosters?

GuB-42 5y ago
From the few information that we have now, it looks similar to Pfizer/BioNTech. Better if you get a full dose instead of the usual half dose.

formichunter 5y ago

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03672-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03672-3 Best I could find says 40x better protection which isn’t the same comparison in above article.

trhway 5y ago

sounds like vaccine marketing is crossing into the "25% more nuts and 8g protein per serving" territory. I suppose that regular consumer isnt ready to evaluate all the aspects of the difference between say 20-fold and 37-fold antibody levels beside the "bigger is better" (is it? does high antibody levels come for free? i remember a study where methotrexate treatment to kill B-cells which were of high levels after flu cured Chronic Fatigue Syndrome for example).

amznbyebyebye 5y ago
Shame you’re being downvoted and people don’t get that there might be just a small conflict of interest for the Pfizer ceo to be the one dictating that we need a fourth vaccine. [1] [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/08/omicron-pfizer-ceo-says-we-may-need-fourth-covid-vaccine-doses-sooner-than-expected.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/08/omi...
- crate_barre 5y ago
  Us sheep will put up with this one, if it’s the last one. Just this one last booster. Now if we tread into the 4th or 5th booster for the n-th variant, then that’s my breaking point and I will have to call out the shenanigans. Moderna’s revenue since 2016: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107794/revenue-and-net-income-moderna-inc/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107794/revenue-and-net-... These companies certainly don’t mind the state of things.
  - beervirus 5y ago
    Why? We get a flu booster every year, and that’s fine. I’m happy to get a shot every so often if it means I can go about my life like normal.
    - crate_barre 5y ago
      You don’t lose your job for not getting the flu vaccine. Again, it’s an unprecedented situation and I’ll accept the mandate for the three shots, but this has to have an end at some point.
      - amznbyebyebye 5y ago
        Why is it three? Why can’t they make it effective with one vaccine? Hmm maybe because three vaccines is 3x the revenue they get vs. from one vaccine. They’re just not incentivized for our long term health and well being. It is a pure capitalism.
        gambiting 5y ago
        >>Why can’t they make it effective with one vaccine? There are actual technical and medical answers to this, but somehow I have a feeling you aren't interested in knowing them.
        amznbyebyebye 5y ago
refurb 5y ago
I’ve been on the other side of these types of press releases and you’re exactly right. Always report the most “impressive” numbers even if you know they don’t actually translate to a difference in outcome (usually because you don’t have that data yet).
podgaj 5y ago
I want to know why they never fully investigate why there is such a disparity of outcomes between people who catch SARS2. One can say obesity, but what does that mean physiologically? Is it just they already how too much inflammation? https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.119.315896 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.119.... Of is it that they are deficiency in some nutrient that causes the inflammation? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0946672X20301802 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09466... https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fsn3.2203 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fsn3.2203 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12011-020-02060-8 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12011-020-02060-8 Vaccines are the low hanging fruit but they are obviously are not working so well. Maybe we should all be talking about human nutrition a bit more.
- simonh 5y ago
  >I want to know why they never fully investigate why there is such a disparity of outcomes between people who catch SARS2. It's been, and is being very intensively investigated. We know an awful lot about some aspects of it, but the factors that lead to different immune system responses are very difficult to figure out despite many decades of research into the mechanisms. In the first instance, the specific sites and pathways in the body the virus initially infects and propagates through make a big difference. It might initially infect the nasal passage, throat, lungs or even the nervous system. Even the specific sites in those areas and the initial viral load make a big difference to the progression of the disease. As the infection spreads the many, many different combinations of which systems in the body are infected, in what order, how severely and in combination with what stages in the immune response, together with the weaknesses and strengths of different systems in an individual leads to a massive explosion in the number of possible different scenarios and hence likely outcomes. A big problem though is our limited understanding of the various failure modes of the immune system, or at least in our ability to manage it. Inflamation is our immune system causing collateral damage to our own bodies. There are many, many diseases related to this and they can all be extremely difficult to treat.
  - podgaj 5y ago

ReptileMan 5y ago

And what is difference in outcomes? That's the important stuff.

zibzab 5y ago

But how does this reduce over time?

Arnt 5y ago
This concerns omicron, and omicron is a quick worker. The British measured its doubling time to 1.5 days in London, which means that it goes from one infectee to a million in just a month. What happens later is not really significant.
- zibzab 5y ago
  No, I meant how does the booster effect reduces over time. The effectiveness of the first two over time went down much quicker than initially anticipated. The question is if the 3rd shot is somehow different.
  - mattrighetti 5y ago
    Nobody knows for now since I haven't read any official study/data on that. One thing for sure is that it is likely to follow the path of the previous two shots: antibodies are going to fade with time but you will still be protected against severe illness.
  - Arnt 5y ago
    I see. It has to be an improvement AIUI, but how large is an open question still.

greatpatton 5y ago

Seems from this case in Norway (https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.50.2101147 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...) that Moderna is a tad bit better at preventing infection from Omicron, but when you see the overall number of cases among fully vaccinated people I'm not very optimistic that vaccine with do something at limiting the spread of infection, however I'm optimistic that they will still be efficient to prevent severe disease.

beervirus 5y ago
> When asked to grade the severity of symptoms on a scale from 1 (no symptoms) to 5 (significant symptoms), 42% (33/79) reported level 3 symptoms, whereas 11% (9/79) reported level 4 symptoms. None of the cases required hospitalisation up to 13 December 2021. I am extremely optimistic.
- pixiemaster 5y ago
  in terms of covid hospitalisations overwhelming our hospitals: i‘m optimistic as well that this might not happen at scale. but in terms of a large part of society getting sick (level 3 still makes you stick in bed) at the same time - this will lead to worker shortage - i’m kind of neutral-pessimistic. in terms of longterm long covid effect on our demographic - i’m fearful. in terms of society getting their act together to avert anything of this: absolutely pessimistic.
  - zrail 5y ago
    > in terms of covid hospitalisations overwhelming our hospitals: i‘m optimistic as well that this might not happen at scale. I see no reason for this optimism. Every hospital that I know of in SE Michigan has been over capacity for several weeks. We have gotten regular emails from both hospital systems in Ann Arbor begging everyone to get vaccinated.
    - toolz 5y ago
      This is inaccurate https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-5236...

Proven 5y ago

NomeChomsky 5y ago

antocv 5y ago
Look at the data per age group and per sex, when looking at 0-99 all 3 sexes does not tell the full story since 65+ have totally different risks from covid-19 than 20-29.
- NomeChomsky 5y ago
  - rsfern 5y ago
    This study isn’t based on VAERS data, it’s from the UK. The design tracks their medical record system, under reporting shouldn’t be a big concern Edit: > We assessed the temporal association between COVID-19 vaccination and cardiac adverse events using hospital admissions with diagnoses of myocarditis or pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias. Maybe there is differential reporting based on who shows up at the hospital with Covid vs just vaccine induced side effects, but it’s sort of hard to design a large scale study to pin this down. The methodology seems sound enough to fairly track at least those ill enough to go to the hospital
nojito 5y ago
How is this a bombshell? VAERS data isn’t reliable and should not be used to determine adverse reactions.
- rsfern 5y ago
  This isn’t based on VAERS, it’s a uk study using NHS records. Also I think OP’s summary is kind of misleading
- incrudible 5y ago
  > VAERS data isn’t reliable and should not be used to determine adverse reactions. FDA and CDC do use VAERS as their source for estimating risk of adverse events: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/03-COVID-Su-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download (page 23)

T3RMINATED 5y ago

kypro 5y ago

I only realised how serious a threat omicron was when I looked at the South African data recently and you can see how much of a impact it's had on deaths in a largely unvaccinated population. Even if you just compare the case numbers in South Africa to the UK (where most are double or triple vaxed) you get a good idea of how well vaccines are working. For example, in South Africa deaths have gone from about ~15 a day before omicron to ~30 a day since the variant was first identified, which is terrifying. And in South Africa they have around 20,000 new cases a day compared to about 80,000 in the UK -- imagine how much worse it would be in the UK right now if they weren't vaccinated. Anyone still doubting the efficacy of triple vaccination in healthy populations really needs to look at the data. The South African health authorities are wrong, omicron is a serious threat to our health and if we must fire a few people to ensure another successful Pfizer vaccine rollout, then so be it. Apologies for the sarcasm, but as some with COVID antibodies from a prior infection which I recovered from in about a day, I am genuinely getting frustrated by how much fear and pressure the government is pushing on me to get vaccinated every few months, when the data on how effective they are at managing the pandemic (even after several doses) seems completely inconclusive. Even if this booster did prevent infection by any substantial amount, are we sure we all need them? And further, are we sure the risk justifies governments and employers pushing them on us via the rollout of various mandates and health passports?

simonh 5y ago
I think you're right overall, but that the data doesn't yet support the conclusion. Omicron got traction in the UK at least a week later than SA, probably 2 weeks, so the death rate will lag by the same margin. We need to compare the death rate in the UK now to the death rate in SA a few weeks ago. All the early indications are that the complete data will support your conclusion when it comes in, but frustrating as it is we'll have to wait and see.
- kypro 5y ago
  So in terms of a government response do we care about data now or are we at the point where we just restrict liberties and mandate vaccines assuming the worst possible scenario every time something changes? I guess if we're lucky when the data shows they over reacted they might give some liberties back and hopefully the vaccine rollout won't result in too many adverse side effects. Common.. This is insanity. I honestly don't know what you're arguing for here. I don't care if people take the vaccine or what the outcome of omicron is, my issue is with the government response given the data we have. The data supporting the use of vaccines to tackle omicron is extremely questionable. And that's not even mentioning the fact that it's already questionable enough to mandate COVID vaccines on healthy individuals given recent data suggesting those vaccinated have less robust immune responses to COVID and all of its potential future variants.

ed_balls 5y ago

Meta: Let say I'm 30 years old, healthy, vaccinated with JJ over 6 months ago. Denmark, Sweden, Finland have banned Moderna for younger than 30. Some countries were recommending it to people over 50. Whole communication is a mess. Should I get a booster shot? What are the pros and cons? Is there any data on that? I asked a friend doctor and she said that I should get a test for antibody count (a lab one, not garbage test you can buy anywhere) I was quite sick from the last shot so I'd like to avoid it. I probably had Covid in April 2020. (no tests, I had a unusually mild cold-like symptoms and my partner lost the sense of taste for a few days) Risks (Yes, I know some of them are extremely small) - Booster won't help with stopping transmission - myocarditis[1], allergy reaction (boosters are only Pfizer and Moderna, which I haven't taken), driving to and from, catching COVID and other diseases in the walk-in centre. - I could spread COVID to people in the queue for booster shots, doctors and nurses. [1]hence the ban it for younger males in some countries.

nharada 5y ago
I'd get it -- J&J is already known to be weaker coverage, and Omicron spreads so easily that the odds you get COVID are fairly high if you interact with people regularly. If you're looking at it from a sickness perspective, the expected value of sickness without the shot is probably higher (lower chance of many days of feeling bad vs high chance of a single day). Single person anecdote: I was quite sick from J&J and had zero symptoms from my booster. So just know it's not necessarily guaranteed you'll be sick from this one too if that's your main concern.
- gandutraveler 5y ago
  Same for me. I had J&J and now moderna booster. Other than mild body pain and tiredness, booster was pretty smooth. Maybe because it's a half dosage
  - jaclaz 5y ago
    I don't know, I got all three shots of Moderna (two doses at 1 month interval in the summer + booster last week): 1) first dose: nothing 2) second dose: some (minor) pain in the arm I received the shot, that lasted only the morning after I got the dose (that I got around 21:00, so I probably was sleeping when it began) 3) booster (half dose): same (a little stronger) pain in the arm, nothing relvant but this time it lasted a couple days + and it was accompanied by some - cannot really describe it - slight fogginess in my brain, again nothing serious, just the feeling of not being 100% prompt/reactive Given that this time it was half dose, I tend to believe that while in July I was probably in a better overall status before the dose due to the season (or whatever). Exactly the same happened to my wife (we had together all the shots).

massysett 5y ago

If my net worth is 1 cent, and I pick up 37 cents on the street, I’ve increased my net worth over 37-fold. But I’m still worth only 38 cents. Maybe I can buy a gumball. Maybe. 37-fold is meaningless. Unfortunately this press release doesn’t have anything more useful either.

throwawayfear 5y ago
cracell 5y ago
"Salesman says product he's selling is great!"
simonh 5y ago
Compared to not having the booster (but being previously vaccinated). >37-fold compared to pre-boost levels It's there in the first paragraph. Why are you doing this?
- funcDropShadow 5y ago
  Neutralising antibody levels are not in a linear correlation with protection from Covid infection or prevention of a severe illness. Lot's of biological measurements have to be interpreted on a log scale. I.e. it is not obvious how much difference that makes. But it definitely improves protection.
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- xboxnolifes 5y ago
  GP didn't ask "compared to what". They said that showing an increase is not relevant without knowing the base value amount (or final value amount). Or hell, what the implications of the increase are in meaningful terms. Is this more than expected from a booster? Less? About the same? I get this is a report to investors so I'm not the target audience, but unless the reader is familiar with the field, it's just "big number increase good".

zosima 5y ago

This number is unfortunately fairly meaningless. Neutralizing antibody-titer is of course somewhat related to ability to resist infection, but how much is unclear. Also there is no reason to expect the antibody-titer to stay high and it will probably go down quite a lot within the next 3-6 months, just like antibody-titers did after first round of vaccinations and seems to do after Covid-infection. At this point it almost seems a bit disingenuous for Moderna to not study and publish numbers on expected antibody-titer half-life.