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Edit: apologies to anyone who read my comment analysing the situation and assumed that I’m some kind of warmonger. At no point did I advocate for Taiwan to be a

Edit: apologies to anyone who read my comment analysing the situation and assumed that I’m some kind of warmonger. At no point did I advocate for Taiwan to be annexed. I merely pointed out that China really wants to and they’re stronger than ever in 2021. Shoutout to the dude who implied I’m a Nazi for saying this. Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. - Diplomatic advantage. Only 14 tiny, inconsequential countries + the Vatican recognise Taiwan as a country. Everyone else acknowledges that there is “One China”. - Military advantage. Taiwan struggles to man their military. In any case the investment in the PLA in the last 10 years means no military can stand up to it except for America. Except America is at peak war weariness with the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan. They’re comfortable with Sabre rattling but it’s clear they won’t draw the sabre from the scabbard. - Economic advantage. Every country in the world needs China. China doesn’t need any single country. See how they bullied Australia and Canada successfully. This dependence on China is at an all time high. It could maybe diminish, but it’s unlikely. And Taiwan is a more compelling prize than ever. - Political incentive. The leader who integrates Taiwan will enjoy unquestioned power for the rest of their life. Xi Jinping is often described as the strongest leader of China since Mao. This would be his opportunity to become more powerful than Mao by doing something he couldn’t. Unify China and importantly, face down America and show the world who’s #1. - Economic incentive. 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy. TSMC in particular the most pivotal supplier for most of the worlds critical industries. If Taiwan could be annexed and TSMC brought under state control, China would have a bargaining chip of unparalleled power.

ChemSpider 5y ago
You post really shows the power and danger of nationalism. You sound like Germany 1938.
- Diesel555 5y ago
  > You sound like Germany 1938. The author was just pointing out China's incentives. Any negotiator, a person analyzing international relation theory, or any policy maker must do this. He doesn't sound like Germany 1938. He sounds like a person trying to analyze a power dynamic. The Congressional Research Service tries to boil down complicated issues for Congressional members in public, short reports. Here is the one on Taiwan that discusses Taiwan and China in two pages (and has Lithuania). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 They do talk about China's perspective on the second page. They do not ignore it. They do not sound like Germany 1938.
  - bettysdiagnose 5y ago
    No that person does genuinely sound creepily jingoistic and chauvinistic about it all.
thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
>> Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. Except how the rest of the world would react. It seems like a recipe for war.
- nindalf 5y ago
  The rest of the world is scared of even offending China by calling Taiwan a country. You really think they’re going to go to war over Taiwan?
  - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
    >> The rest of the world is scared of even offending China by calling Taiwan a country. You really think they’re going to go to war over Taiwan? Yes.
  - Aeolun 5y ago
    They’re not really scared of offending China, they’re scared of triggering that war. If China triggers that war all the hesitancy will be gone. That said, I’d expected more of a reaction to the annexation of Hong Kong too.
    - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
      Hong Kong was not "annexed". It returned to China's control from the UK by treaty. "One country, two systems" is being curtailed early, but that is harder to argue against without a foreign power there to do anything about it.
      - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
        Ok, down-voters. How is my statement about the Sino-British Joint Declaration incorrect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration
  - 5y ago
bettysdiagnose 5y ago
I thought the Chinese bullying of Australia has been largely recognised as a failure. Australia just exported to elsewhere (e.g. a lot more coal to India). If China invades Taiwan then most likely the USA goes to war over it. Anything else is to accept the final end of US leadership in the world. If we're going to end the world and kill billions then I guess it might as well be over something as honourable as Taiwanese freedom and in the broader name of freedom, human rights and democracy. Human civilisation could end in a far more banal way.
- ww_wpg 5y ago
  "what should we have done then, when the Chinese invaded Taiwan?" "anything at all besides what you did" - On the Beach (2000)
  - spaced-out 5y ago
    We've seen what happens when authoritarian governments which start locking minorities up in concentration camps progress to inventing historical grievances to start seizing territory. Appeasement doesn't work.
    - trasz 5y ago
      Your description matches American labour camps / private prisons. So, what happens?
      - spaced-out 5y ago
        I am concerned about an authoritarianism in America, even more so if the president started saying stuff like: "Canada and the US are essentially the same people and should be one country. The Canadian government has always been propped up by foreigners to weaken us. Reunification must happen, by force if necessary."
- dnautics 5y ago
  > Australia has been largely recognised as a failure. Australia just exported to elsewhere Not only that, but the loss of coal imports from Australia led directly to massive power outages in the northeastern provinces this fall. Though it's possible that the people aren't aware of that causal connection. > Anything else is to accept the final end of US leadership in the world There is some sense in which the US is willing to relinquish its "leadership in the world" and "take some me-time"; it's just too much of a pain in the ass. This has been a trend since 2001, when george bush was elected on a "humble foreign policy" platform (but not delivered upon), skipped obama's cabinet (though he was famously aloof during high level diplomatic meetings), through Donald Trump, who hasn't started any new foreign adventures, and Biden has actually withdrawn from Afghanistan. I think that we are emerging into an zeitgeist where the US doesn't really care to be number one, it's just so stupid and so much of a waste of time. But even in context of deliberately disengaging from the world, the US still goes to bat for Taiwan.
LatteLazy 5y ago
China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. But the aftermath would be pretty terrible. The US and EU would lock them out of the their economies, as would basically every country in the region except NK. Economic collapse would ensue and that would likely lead to a revolution: the CCP have basically ruled on a "give up freedom and get economic opportunity" ticket. If they can't deliver... There is also a pretty big US air force base there which would be hard to... Invade around?
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
  >> China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. I am inclined to believe that it would look similar to Iraq invading Kuwait, only 100000 times bigger and bloodier. I think the US, UK, Australia, Japan, and many EU nations would strongly disapprove and take military action.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    China has a military strong enough to credibly take on the US, the UK, Australia and Japan in their backyard. That is because, as you'll note, these powers are all thousands and thousands of kilometers away from the theater, which gives China a massive advantage. The best they could realistically do if the invasion does succeed is try to force an embargo. This will be massively unpopular, kill tens of thousands in third countries that will be sanctioned as collateral damage, and crash the world economy, and still might not work.
    - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
      >> these powers are all thousands and thousands of kilometers away from the theater, which gives China a massive advantage. The past 100 years of wars and military conflicts have shown that military logistics can overcome great distances if needed. Great distances and economic consequences did not stop past wars. I doubt they would stop a war caused by the invasion of Taiwan. >> This will be massively unpopular, kill tens of thousands in third countries that will be sanctioned as collateral damage, and crash the world economy, and still might not work. The damage would be incredible, likely as bad as World War 2, or possibly worse.
Aeolun 5y ago
> Unify China and importantly, face down America and show the world who’s #1. I think this is why the war weariness would matter little. Americans may be many things, but liberal or conservative, they’re all proud as fuck. They won’t initiate a war, but barring a complete takeover of Taiwan in the course of a day (e.g. Crimea), they’ll fight. The same is more or less true for Japan, which really just needs an excuse.
manuelabeledo 5y ago
> They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021 > 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy. These two statements are exclusive. If China would invade Taiwan, the economic downfall and the reactions from most western countries, which, on the other hand, are essential partners for China to continue its manufacturing dominance, would be catastrophic.
LAC-Tech 5y ago
This is a bit of a shallow understanding of things. They were a lot closer 6 years ago to annexing Taiwan than they are now. Diplomatic: Official allies matter less and less. The deepening unofficial ties with the US and Japan (I can cite examples here if you like) are much, much more important. If the current trend continues, ties between Taiwan and the US will be unofficial by name only. Dual recognition by stealth. Militarily: Taiwans problems here are well known. But Taiwan has a free and very critical press, and will gladly tear into their military for clicks. This is not the case for China, god knows what problems it has (though the skirmish with India probably gives you some clues). You call the US military war weary, I call it highly experienced at waging war. Economic: China is completely dependent on global trade. To act otherwise is laughable.
- nindalf 5y ago
  The US military isn’t war weary. The US public is. And ultimately any US politician who launches yet another war will likely lose their job very quickly. Obviously China is dependent on world trade. What’s laughable is not reading what I wrote, in that China can afford to lose trade ties with one or two nations, although not all at the same time. Whereas no single country can afford to lose China. That gives China the high ground - it can threaten any single country with a boycott. And it has done so successfully.
  - LAC-Tech 5y ago
    Any US conflict with China over Taiwan is not going to be a 20 year occupation of a territory that doesn't want them there. It would be primarily a naval/air conflict, and over rather quickly. Which Chinese economic boycott was successful in achieving their goals? You surely can't point to the Australian one.

ChemSpider 5y ago

You post really shows the power and danger of nationalism. You sound like Germany 1938.

Diesel555 5y ago
> You sound like Germany 1938. The author was just pointing out China's incentives. Any negotiator, a person analyzing international relation theory, or any policy maker must do this. He doesn't sound like Germany 1938. He sounds like a person trying to analyze a power dynamic. The Congressional Research Service tries to boil down complicated issues for Congressional members in public, short reports. Here is the one on Taiwan that discusses Taiwan and China in two pages (and has Lithuania). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 They do talk about China's perspective on the second page. They do not ignore it. They do not sound like Germany 1938.
- bettysdiagnose 5y ago
  No that person does genuinely sound creepily jingoistic and chauvinistic about it all.

thesuperbigfrog 5y ago

>> Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. Except how the rest of the world would react. It seems like a recipe for war.

nindalf 5y ago
The rest of the world is scared of even offending China by calling Taiwan a country. You really think they’re going to go to war over Taiwan?
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
  >> The rest of the world is scared of even offending China by calling Taiwan a country. You really think they’re going to go to war over Taiwan? Yes.
- Aeolun 5y ago
  They’re not really scared of offending China, they’re scared of triggering that war. If China triggers that war all the hesitancy will be gone. That said, I’d expected more of a reaction to the annexation of Hong Kong too.
  - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
    Hong Kong was not "annexed". It returned to China's control from the UK by treaty. "One country, two systems" is being curtailed early, but that is harder to argue against without a foreign power there to do anything about it.
    - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
      Ok, down-voters. How is my statement about the Sino-British Joint Declaration incorrect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration
- 5y ago

bettysdiagnose 5y ago

I thought the Chinese bullying of Australia has been largely recognised as a failure. Australia just exported to elsewhere (e.g. a lot more coal to India). If China invades Taiwan then most likely the USA goes to war over it. Anything else is to accept the final end of US leadership in the world. If we're going to end the world and kill billions then I guess it might as well be over something as honourable as Taiwanese freedom and in the broader name of freedom, human rights and democracy. Human civilisation could end in a far more banal way.

ww_wpg 5y ago
"what should we have done then, when the Chinese invaded Taiwan?" "anything at all besides what you did" - On the Beach (2000)
- spaced-out 5y ago
  We've seen what happens when authoritarian governments which start locking minorities up in concentration camps progress to inventing historical grievances to start seizing territory. Appeasement doesn't work.
  - trasz 5y ago
    Your description matches American labour camps / private prisons. So, what happens?
    - spaced-out 5y ago
      I am concerned about an authoritarianism in America, even more so if the president started saying stuff like: "Canada and the US are essentially the same people and should be one country. The Canadian government has always been propped up by foreigners to weaken us. Reunification must happen, by force if necessary."
dnautics 5y ago
> Australia has been largely recognised as a failure. Australia just exported to elsewhere Not only that, but the loss of coal imports from Australia led directly to massive power outages in the northeastern provinces this fall. Though it's possible that the people aren't aware of that causal connection. > Anything else is to accept the final end of US leadership in the world There is some sense in which the US is willing to relinquish its "leadership in the world" and "take some me-time"; it's just too much of a pain in the ass. This has been a trend since 2001, when george bush was elected on a "humble foreign policy" platform (but not delivered upon), skipped obama's cabinet (though he was famously aloof during high level diplomatic meetings), through Donald Trump, who hasn't started any new foreign adventures, and Biden has actually withdrawn from Afghanistan. I think that we are emerging into an zeitgeist where the US doesn't really care to be number one, it's just so stupid and so much of a waste of time. But even in context of deliberately disengaging from the world, the US still goes to bat for Taiwan.

LatteLazy 5y ago

China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. But the aftermath would be pretty terrible. The US and EU would lock them out of the their economies, as would basically every country in the region except NK. Economic collapse would ensue and that would likely lead to a revolution: the CCP have basically ruled on a "give up freedom and get economic opportunity" ticket. If they can't deliver... There is also a pretty big US air force base there which would be hard to... Invade around?

thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
>> China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. I am inclined to believe that it would look similar to Iraq invading Kuwait, only 100000 times bigger and bloodier. I think the US, UK, Australia, Japan, and many EU nations would strongly disapprove and take military action.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  China has a military strong enough to credibly take on the US, the UK, Australia and Japan in their backyard. That is because, as you'll note, these powers are all thousands and thousands of kilometers away from the theater, which gives China a massive advantage. The best they could realistically do if the invasion does succeed is try to force an embargo. This will be massively unpopular, kill tens of thousands in third countries that will be sanctioned as collateral damage, and crash the world economy, and still might not work.
  - thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
    >> these powers are all thousands and thousands of kilometers away from the theater, which gives China a massive advantage. The past 100 years of wars and military conflicts have shown that military logistics can overcome great distances if needed. Great distances and economic consequences did not stop past wars. I doubt they would stop a war caused by the invasion of Taiwan. >> This will be massively unpopular, kill tens of thousands in third countries that will be sanctioned as collateral damage, and crash the world economy, and still might not work. The damage would be incredible, likely as bad as World War 2, or possibly worse.

Aeolun 5y ago

> Unify China and importantly, face down America and show the world who’s #1. I think this is why the war weariness would matter little. Americans may be many things, but liberal or conservative, they’re all proud as fuck. They won’t initiate a war, but barring a complete takeover of Taiwan in the course of a day (e.g. Crimea), they’ll fight. The same is more or less true for Japan, which really just needs an excuse.

manuelabeledo 5y ago

> They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021 > 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy. These two statements are exclusive. If China would invade Taiwan, the economic downfall and the reactions from most western countries, which, on the other hand, are essential partners for China to continue its manufacturing dominance, would be catastrophic.

LAC-Tech 5y ago

This is a bit of a shallow understanding of things. They were a lot closer 6 years ago to annexing Taiwan than they are now. Diplomatic: Official allies matter less and less. The deepening unofficial ties with the US and Japan (I can cite examples here if you like) are much, much more important. If the current trend continues, ties between Taiwan and the US will be unofficial by name only. Dual recognition by stealth. Militarily: Taiwans problems here are well known. But Taiwan has a free and very critical press, and will gladly tear into their military for clicks. This is not the case for China, god knows what problems it has (though the skirmish with India probably gives you some clues). You call the US military war weary, I call it highly experienced at waging war. Economic: China is completely dependent on global trade. To act otherwise is laughable.

nindalf 5y ago
The US military isn’t war weary. The US public is. And ultimately any US politician who launches yet another war will likely lose their job very quickly. Obviously China is dependent on world trade. What’s laughable is not reading what I wrote, in that China can afford to lose trade ties with one or two nations, although not all at the same time. Whereas no single country can afford to lose China. That gives China the high ground - it can threaten any single country with a boycott. And it has done so successfully.
- LAC-Tech 5y ago
  Any US conflict with China over Taiwan is not going to be a 20 year occupation of a territory that doesn't want them there. It would be primarily a naval/air conflict, and over rather quickly. Which Chinese economic boycott was successful in achieving their goals? You surely can't point to the Australian one.