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It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China i

It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military containment of China. The whole "first island chain" depends on it. The US knows it, China's life depends on it. There's a reason why this issue has persisted since 1949 and why it's China's "reddest of the red lines".

sudosysgen 5y ago
This is exactly right. The people that think China is going after Taiwan for no reason are greatly underestimating the realism of States.
- Aeolun 5y ago
  I mean, it basically boils down to no reason though. People in China are happy. People in Taiwan are happy. What moron would start a war over it now?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    No, there are a lot of strategic reasons beyond that. People in China and Taiwan are happy as it is right now, yes. But if the status quo changes, for example if Taiwanese independence is recognized, people will become unhappy.
nabla9 5y ago
Chinese Communist Party has tied it's legitimacy into uniting China. Xi has doubled down on it. Giving up would destabilize the party. It's and identity question for China. Chinese law ways that China must go to the war if peaceful unification is not possible. Even Chinese people seem to think that Taiwanese want to be part of China. In reality support for unification is about 4% of the population. The official One China Policy exists to prevent immediate start of war.
- ospider 5y ago
  It's not that the Communist Party ties itself to unifying China. It's the culture. It's because that the only way to claiming yourself a legitimate Chinese government is to become the conquerer of all China. All dynasties who did not have reign over every parts of China, like Jin and Song, are considered shames in history by the Chinese people. There is nothing to do with the Communist ideology or any particular party or people. If it were KMT on the mainland and Communist Party on Taiwan, they would do the same.
ChemSpider 5y ago
There is no need for Mr. Xi to formally give up on Taiwan. He could just kick the can down the road for another few decades, like all his much smarter predecessors did. > China's people also believe that. Only because that is what they learn and hear (literally) daily, starting with kindergarten. Just reduce this crab step by step, and it will fade away. The same is true for this even more stupid 7-dash line. They draw this stuff only really, really every map you see in China.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  He cannot kick the can down the road if the West forces a point of no return by suggesting the above. Chinese people initially saw Taiwan as part of China for historical reasons as well as a result of the civil war. Propaganda slows this from stopping, but the problem very much is not manufactured.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  Saying that viewing Taiwan that way as purely a consequence of propaganda is like saying that American patriotism, and the fact that Americans believe that the South's cecession is illegitimate or unrighteous, is purely a consequence of having taught people so since childhood. Yes education is a contributing factor. But it is my no means the only factor. Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value, which is valued more than western freedom of speech, and that this core value has been around for thousands of years.
  - petilon 5y ago
    > unification is Chinese core value Is warring with all neighbors a core value too? Chinese government, through censorship, controls the minds of the Chinese people. The government needs to update the core values.
    - FooBarWidget 5y ago
      My point is that whether the west thinks the Chinese ought to think that way, is not very important. People can debate that all day long, but at the end of the day the Chinese do think that way, and they are willing to fight for it. This has strategical implications. Do we want to grandstand or do we want to actually solve a problem? If we want to grandstand at all cost, then we have to wage war with China and force them into submission. If we want an actual peaceful resolution then something has to give.
ridewinter 5y ago
If China went democratic then Taiwan wouldn't have much issue with becoming part of it, right? Once people taste freedom they tend to not want to give it up, no matter how messy.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Obviously they would. If China was democratic they would probably elect a more repressive and economically left wing government. At least that's until the private sector buys enough political influence. Democracy != Liberal democracy.
  - FooBarWidget 5y ago
    Hey I notice you're getting downvoted a lot. Wanna get in touch? Find my contact details in my profile. Twitter preferred
    - clove 5y ago
      Recruiting more pro-CCP shills out in the open? You're slipping.
      - FooBarWidget 5y ago
        Nothing wrong with talking to like-minded people. I hope you are not seriously thinking true propagandists are recruited out in the open via HN comments. Are you seriously paranoid and naive at the same time?
      - dang 5y ago
        Posting like this is a bannable offense on HN. You can't attack another user like this, no matter how strongly you disagree with them. Please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29739415 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29739415 for a longer explanation.
- manuelabeledo 5y ago
  There is a strong Taiwanese identity among younger people, and that's one of the reasons why the DPP is so popular right now. Older generations and KMT supporters may favor reunification, but that's a sentiment fading away. So, no, I don't think Taiwanese would agree to become Chinese.
627467 5y ago
You are also missing the part where the Taiwanese have always held an ambiguous stance towards reunification/independence. I would bet that a Scottish-style ref in Taiwan (which would be tantamount to declaration of independence and hence, dead on arrival) may yield a surprising similar response: no majority support for independence.
- ChemSpider 5y ago
  Nonsense. The only reason why some Taiwanese do not want _formal_ independence now is because China is threating with war. If China would allow a referendum in Taiwan (accepting any outcome peacefully), there would be 90%+ majority for independence.
  - yorwba 5y ago
    Actual survey results are a bit more mixed: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 Support for moving towards independence has clearly increased a lot since 2018, but many people still haven't made up their minds yet.
    - ChemSpider 5y ago
      That is because formal independence - as used in this survey - means a considerable risk of war with China. It is no surprise that people hesitate going to war when the current status quo is somewhat ok.
- verall 5y ago
  This might have been true 10 or even 5 years ago but certainly isn't anymore.
- jeswin 5y ago
  > You are also missing the part where the Taiwanese have always held an ambiguous stance towards reunification/independence. You are also missing the part where the ambiguous stance is mostly a consequence of China's threat of immediate violence if independence is ever declared. Taiwanese support for reunification is under 15% or so - and even lower among Taiwanese who were born in Taiwan. Why would they, when their living standards are way higher than China's and they live a free country?
zucker42 5y ago
I don't buy this. If the government would stop making "reunification" so prominent in official rhetoric, eventually there would be room to back down from the hardline view on Taiwan. Maybe not tomorrow, but certainly in 30 or 50 years. The government is feeding the flames of nationalism by making Taiwan such a prominent issue. The reason the CCP won't back down on Taiwan is not because they can't, but exactly because it's an issue which encourages nationalism and internal unity.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  Saying that Taiwan is merely a nationalism and internal unity issue, and that people's views are merely a result of propaganda, ignores the very history of how Taiwan came to be and how the Chinese civil war developed. Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value, which is valued more than western freedom of speech, and that this core value has been around for thousands of years. But more importantly, you dodged the military strategic significance of Taiwan. Telling China to give up Taiwan is like asking China to give cut off its lifeline. At the end of the day, your point boils down to that China ought not to think that way, for reasons that you believe are the only legitimate reasons. But that is useless: Chinese do view things that way, and if foreign forces pressure China to let Taiwan go, then they will fight to the end.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    Then there will be a war. Sad.
  - zucker42 5y ago
    > Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value It seems to me that you are saying that a contemporary political position (that Taiwan should be ruled by the same government as mainland China) is in fact a "core value". Unity can be a value, but the political position that the island of Taiwan is an integral part of China, and China can't be unified without it, is not. That's the position which is encouraged by propaganda and government rhetoric, and mirrors similar positions with regards to, for example, Tibet.
manuelabeledo 5y ago
Having been to both Taiwan and China several times - this is a bit inaccurate. Yes, there is a certain believe among Chinese that Taiwan is an inalienable part of their territory, but most don't believe that reunification should be achieved by force. There is also the idea that Taiwanese people are indeed different from mainland Chinese, but at the same time, any strong Taiwanese identity is the result of propaganda and indoctrination by the Taiwanese authorities. In other words, it seems that Chinese citizens believe that Taiwanese are "misguided children", thus there is no reason to punish them militarily, and the Taiwan question should be treated as an internal conflict, like any other separatist movement.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  The context of my post is that I replied to another post that talked about the west fighting China. Hence, I did not say people believe reunification needs to be achieved by force. What I did say is that if foreign forces pressure China into letting Taiwan go, then China will fight back.
  - manuelabeledo 5y ago
    > I did not say people believe reunification needs to be achieved by force. Then this line: > if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. doesn't make much sense to me. Who would overthrow the CCP, if not the Chinese people? And if they would be willing to do that, why wouldn't they believe in achieving reunification by force?
    - FooBarWidget 5y ago
      Many accept the status quo in which Taiwan is de facto self ruled but at least there is an aspiration towards future reunification by peaceful means, and in which Taiwan identifies as Chinese (just disagreeing on the government). As one of my (Chinese) family members put it: we can be very flexible and patient in arrangements as long as you reconize you're Chinese; who is the government is not the most imporant. Letting go of the reunification aspiration entirely, and letting Taiwan relinquish their identity as Chinese, is a whole different matter and would make lots of people angry. It would be seen as a sign of a weak government, one which is in collusion with foreign forces to destroy Chinese sovereignty; an extension of early 20th century efforts by the west to balkanize China. The CCP will lose legitimacy. Once CCP is overthrown, who can say whether the new policy is peaceful? Maybe a populist will make use of the anger to incite people to call for an invasion. The CCP are actually moderates. Be careful of what you wish for.
regnull 5y ago
> if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow Haha, no. CCP will just present it as a victory for some weird reason, and everyone will just keep applauding. There might be some resentment, but not open one.
jackTheMan 5y ago
I haven't found anybody actually who would care, only for recent nationalistic voices. If that would be lowered, they wouldn't care less. And even for those who "cared" I've explained, that imagine yourself as a Taiwanese, who had and always will have a better life than any mainlander. Would they want to have a dictator above themself who beat them up like they did with HKese? So far, I've found no mainlanders yet who would still insisted to take them over. (of course personally, in chat it might be different)
ww520 5y ago
CCP has a much greater control on its people than others can imagine. If they want to give up on Taiwan, they can do it without much trouble. Japan used to be China's mortal enemy. CCP has no trouble normalized relationship with Japan and built "Sino-Japan friendship" [1]. No citizen uprising over this in China, though CCP used Japan as a whipping symbol to flame up nationalism from time to time. Mongolia used to be part of China and it's an independent country now. No one in China made a sound. Vast vast area of Siberia including the city Vladivostok were taken by Russia from China. Under CCP no one made a sound again. In fact, CCP and Soviet/Russia in the 90's signed a treaty to recognize the ceded territory. Again no one in China made a sound, no one overthrowing CCP on that issue. The funny thing is ROC Taiwan doesn't recognize the ceded territory and still claims the land as part of China. Taiwan is a CCP issue; Chinese people really have no say in it. [1] Sino-Japanese Friendship and Trade Treaty
- throwaway_1_234 5y ago
  [dead]
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
fvv 5y ago
China peoples believe what the ccp tell them to believe with their indoctrination, military containment story included Taiwan is a free and democratic coun3tey and a quite decent one in recent history.. bullying a country for for fake historical reunification purposes is not different from religious motivation and the world should take stance
jorblumesea 5y ago
The Chinese people have been indoctrinated by the CCP for decades. So to just chalk it up to the Chinese people demanding invasion is absurd and completely contrary to the facts.

sudosysgen 5y ago

This is exactly right. The people that think China is going after Taiwan for no reason are greatly underestimating the realism of States.

Aeolun 5y ago
I mean, it basically boils down to no reason though. People in China are happy. People in Taiwan are happy. What moron would start a war over it now?
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  No, there are a lot of strategic reasons beyond that. People in China and Taiwan are happy as it is right now, yes. But if the status quo changes, for example if Taiwanese independence is recognized, people will become unhappy.

nabla9 5y ago

Chinese Communist Party has tied it's legitimacy into uniting China. Xi has doubled down on it. Giving up would destabilize the party. It's and identity question for China. Chinese law ways that China must go to the war if peaceful unification is not possible. Even Chinese people seem to think that Taiwanese want to be part of China. In reality support for unification is about 4% of the population. The official One China Policy exists to prevent immediate start of war.

ospider 5y ago
It's not that the Communist Party ties itself to unifying China. It's the culture. It's because that the only way to claiming yourself a legitimate Chinese government is to become the conquerer of all China. All dynasties who did not have reign over every parts of China, like Jin and Song, are considered shames in history by the Chinese people. There is nothing to do with the Communist ideology or any particular party or people. If it were KMT on the mainland and Communist Party on Taiwan, they would do the same.

ChemSpider 5y ago

There is no need for Mr. Xi to formally give up on Taiwan. He could just kick the can down the road for another few decades, like all his much smarter predecessors did. > China's people also believe that. Only because that is what they learn and hear (literally) daily, starting with kindergarten. Just reduce this crab step by step, and it will fade away. The same is true for this even more stupid 7-dash line. They draw this stuff only really, really every map you see in China.

sudosysgen 5y ago
He cannot kick the can down the road if the West forces a point of no return by suggesting the above. Chinese people initially saw Taiwan as part of China for historical reasons as well as a result of the civil war. Propaganda slows this from stopping, but the problem very much is not manufactured.
FooBarWidget 5y ago
Saying that viewing Taiwan that way as purely a consequence of propaganda is like saying that American patriotism, and the fact that Americans believe that the South's cecession is illegitimate or unrighteous, is purely a consequence of having taught people so since childhood. Yes education is a contributing factor. But it is my no means the only factor. Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value, which is valued more than western freedom of speech, and that this core value has been around for thousands of years.
- petilon 5y ago
  > unification is Chinese core value Is warring with all neighbors a core value too? Chinese government, through censorship, controls the minds of the Chinese people. The government needs to update the core values.
  - FooBarWidget 5y ago
    My point is that whether the west thinks the Chinese ought to think that way, is not very important. People can debate that all day long, but at the end of the day the Chinese do think that way, and they are willing to fight for it. This has strategical implications. Do we want to grandstand or do we want to actually solve a problem? If we want to grandstand at all cost, then we have to wage war with China and force them into submission. If we want an actual peaceful resolution then something has to give.

ridewinter 5y ago

If China went democratic then Taiwan wouldn't have much issue with becoming part of it, right? Once people taste freedom they tend to not want to give it up, no matter how messy.

sudosysgen 5y ago
Obviously they would. If China was democratic they would probably elect a more repressive and economically left wing government. At least that's until the private sector buys enough political influence. Democracy != Liberal democracy.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  Hey I notice you're getting downvoted a lot. Wanna get in touch? Find my contact details in my profile. Twitter preferred
  - clove 5y ago
    Recruiting more pro-CCP shills out in the open? You're slipping.
    - FooBarWidget 5y ago
      Nothing wrong with talking to like-minded people. I hope you are not seriously thinking true propagandists are recruited out in the open via HN comments. Are you seriously paranoid and naive at the same time?
    - dang 5y ago
      Posting like this is a bannable offense on HN. You can't attack another user like this, no matter how strongly you disagree with them. Please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29739415 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29739415 for a longer explanation.
manuelabeledo 5y ago
There is a strong Taiwanese identity among younger people, and that's one of the reasons why the DPP is so popular right now. Older generations and KMT supporters may favor reunification, but that's a sentiment fading away. So, no, I don't think Taiwanese would agree to become Chinese.

627467 5y ago

You are also missing the part where the Taiwanese have always held an ambiguous stance towards reunification/independence. I would bet that a Scottish-style ref in Taiwan (which would be tantamount to declaration of independence and hence, dead on arrival) may yield a surprising similar response: no majority support for independence.

ChemSpider 5y ago
Nonsense. The only reason why some Taiwanese do not want _formal_ independence now is because China is threating with war. If China would allow a referendum in Taiwan (accepting any outcome peacefully), there would be 90%+ majority for independence.
- yorwba 5y ago
  Actual survey results are a bit more mixed: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 Support for moving towards independence has clearly increased a lot since 2018, but many people still haven't made up their minds yet.
  - ChemSpider 5y ago
    That is because formal independence - as used in this survey - means a considerable risk of war with China. It is no surprise that people hesitate going to war when the current status quo is somewhat ok.
verall 5y ago
This might have been true 10 or even 5 years ago but certainly isn't anymore.
jeswin 5y ago
> You are also missing the part where the Taiwanese have always held an ambiguous stance towards reunification/independence. You are also missing the part where the ambiguous stance is mostly a consequence of China's threat of immediate violence if independence is ever declared. Taiwanese support for reunification is under 15% or so - and even lower among Taiwanese who were born in Taiwan. Why would they, when their living standards are way higher than China's and they live a free country?

zucker42 5y ago

I don't buy this. If the government would stop making "reunification" so prominent in official rhetoric, eventually there would be room to back down from the hardline view on Taiwan. Maybe not tomorrow, but certainly in 30 or 50 years. The government is feeding the flames of nationalism by making Taiwan such a prominent issue. The reason the CCP won't back down on Taiwan is not because they can't, but exactly because it's an issue which encourages nationalism and internal unity.

FooBarWidget 5y ago
Saying that Taiwan is merely a nationalism and internal unity issue, and that people's views are merely a result of propaganda, ignores the very history of how Taiwan came to be and how the Chinese civil war developed. Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value, which is valued more than western freedom of speech, and that this core value has been around for thousands of years. But more importantly, you dodged the military strategic significance of Taiwan. Telling China to give up Taiwan is like asking China to give cut off its lifeline. At the end of the day, your point boils down to that China ought not to think that way, for reasons that you believe are the only legitimate reasons. But that is useless: Chinese do view things that way, and if foreign forces pressure China to let Taiwan go, then they will fight to the end.
- stickfigure 5y ago
  Then there will be a war. Sad.
- zucker42 5y ago
  > Your take also ignores the fact that unification is Chinese core value It seems to me that you are saying that a contemporary political position (that Taiwan should be ruled by the same government as mainland China) is in fact a "core value". Unity can be a value, but the political position that the island of Taiwan is an integral part of China, and China can't be unified without it, is not. That's the position which is encouraged by propaganda and government rhetoric, and mirrors similar positions with regards to, for example, Tibet.

manuelabeledo 5y ago

Having been to both Taiwan and China several times - this is a bit inaccurate. Yes, there is a certain believe among Chinese that Taiwan is an inalienable part of their territory, but most don't believe that reunification should be achieved by force. There is also the idea that Taiwanese people are indeed different from mainland Chinese, but at the same time, any strong Taiwanese identity is the result of propaganda and indoctrination by the Taiwanese authorities. In other words, it seems that Chinese citizens believe that Taiwanese are "misguided children", thus there is no reason to punish them militarily, and the Taiwan question should be treated as an internal conflict, like any other separatist movement.

FooBarWidget 5y ago
The context of my post is that I replied to another post that talked about the west fighting China. Hence, I did not say people believe reunification needs to be achieved by force. What I did say is that if foreign forces pressure China into letting Taiwan go, then China will fight back.
- manuelabeledo 5y ago
  > I did not say people believe reunification needs to be achieved by force. Then this line: > if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. doesn't make much sense to me. Who would overthrow the CCP, if not the Chinese people? And if they would be willing to do that, why wouldn't they believe in achieving reunification by force?
  - FooBarWidget 5y ago
    Many accept the status quo in which Taiwan is de facto self ruled but at least there is an aspiration towards future reunification by peaceful means, and in which Taiwan identifies as Chinese (just disagreeing on the government). As one of my (Chinese) family members put it: we can be very flexible and patient in arrangements as long as you reconize you're Chinese; who is the government is not the most imporant. Letting go of the reunification aspiration entirely, and letting Taiwan relinquish their identity as Chinese, is a whole different matter and would make lots of people angry. It would be seen as a sign of a weak government, one which is in collusion with foreign forces to destroy Chinese sovereignty; an extension of early 20th century efforts by the west to balkanize China. The CCP will lose legitimacy. Once CCP is overthrown, who can say whether the new policy is peaceful? Maybe a populist will make use of the anger to incite people to call for an invasion. The CCP are actually moderates. Be careful of what you wish for.

regnull 5y ago

> if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow Haha, no. CCP will just present it as a victory for some weird reason, and everyone will just keep applauding. There might be some resentment, but not open one.

jackTheMan 5y ago

I haven't found anybody actually who would care, only for recent nationalistic voices. If that would be lowered, they wouldn't care less. And even for those who "cared" I've explained, that imagine yourself as a Taiwanese, who had and always will have a better life than any mainlander. Would they want to have a dictator above themself who beat them up like they did with HKese? So far, I've found no mainlanders yet who would still insisted to take them over. (of course personally, in chat it might be different)

ww520 5y ago

CCP has a much greater control on its people than others can imagine. If they want to give up on Taiwan, they can do it without much trouble. Japan used to be China's mortal enemy. CCP has no trouble normalized relationship with Japan and built "Sino-Japan friendship" [1]. No citizen uprising over this in China, though CCP used Japan as a whipping symbol to flame up nationalism from time to time. Mongolia used to be part of China and it's an independent country now. No one in China made a sound. Vast vast area of Siberia including the city Vladivostok were taken by Russia from China. Under CCP no one made a sound again. In fact, CCP and Soviet/Russia in the 90's signed a treaty to recognize the ceded territory. Again no one in China made a sound, no one overthrowing CCP on that issue. The funny thing is ROC Taiwan doesn't recognize the ceded territory and still claims the land as part of China. Taiwan is a CCP issue; Chinese people really have no say in it. [1] Sino-Japanese Friendship and Trade Treaty

throwaway_1_234 5y ago
[dead]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

fvv 5y ago

China peoples believe what the ccp tell them to believe with their indoctrination, military containment story included Taiwan is a free and democratic coun3tey and a quite decent one in recent history.. bullying a country for for fake historical reunification purposes is not different from religious motivation and the world should take stance

jorblumesea 5y ago

The Chinese people have been indoctrinated by the CCP for decades. So to just chalk it up to the Chinese people demanding invasion is absurd and completely contrary to the facts.