19 ms·

China would be much better off if they just gave up on the whole Taiwan charade. I understand how badly they want to put Taiwan under thumb like they did HK, bu

China would be much better off if they just gave up on the whole Taiwan charade. I understand how badly they want to put Taiwan under thumb like they did HK, but Taiwan is really the only issue I foresee with potential to derail China's progress.

gedy 5y ago
Yeah I don't see the point or value at this stage. They control their media tightly, and if they just stopped talking about Taiwan I doubt many people in the mainland would care. They've proven they don't need Taiwan and vice versa.
- manquer 5y ago
  Control of South China sea is far too important for china to ignore Taiwan, also Taiwan's dominance in chip design/manufacturing would give china enormous influence over the world.
- mark_l_watson 5y ago
  +1 thanks for that, now that I think about this issue, that is the way I feel also. A few of my friends think I am overboard when I talk positively about China, but really I am just reacting to how wonderful the people there were when my wife and I travelled in China, and I also really respect their AI tech, their tech in general, and how so many people have moved out of poverty. It is just their current government that I don’t like.
  - imiric 5y ago
    Governments are a reflection of the people. They're not some nebulous, abstract entity; they're literally made and run by people of each country. They're chosen–or in some cases imposed–to represent the people to the world. Even in dictatorships, it is the people that choose for governments to remain in power. When that stops being the case, governments are overthrown, and a new set of people take power. The people of China choose to allow CCP to run their country. If they were so different ideologically the CCP would no longer exist. Countries with orders of magnitude less people struggle to remain united. The fact 1.4 billion people can be represented by the same political party speaks to the strong ideological ties that are shared by most Chinese people. I would argue that those ideologies were implanted by decades of brainwashing and totalitarianism, but how it was achieved doesn't change that fact. So, yes, your experience and likely many others' is with good people. Countries are not exclusively bad or good. We can recognize those good traits that China has as a nation. But it would be wrong to also not criticize the bad aspects, and sweep them under the rug as the CCP constantly tries to do. The rampant economic and moral corruption, overfishing of world's waters and general disregard for animal life and nature, disregard for human life, widespread racism and xenophobia, isolationism, etc. These are not only governmental issues, but part of the modern Chinese culture that taints whatever good aspects we can celebrate. Undoubtedly comparisons to the US will be made, but at least we can criticize bad US aspects (both government and cultural) openly, without random US citizens coming up with defensive arguments. The US government will persecute whistleblowers for airing its dirty laundry, but we've known that for decades. I fear a world where the dominant superpower has such a culture and is closed to criticism—not only because of its oppressive government, but because of its people.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > at least we can criticize bad US aspects (both government and cultural) openly, Yup. > without random US citizens coming up with defensive arguments. Eh... No, usually not.
    - mark_l_watson 5y ago
      Seriously, I wish I had your optimism that governments reflect the people. I really do. In my worldview, and I am likely at least partially wrong, I think that almost all governments are totally controlled by corporate and elite interests - same as news media. I do try to not get too upset by this, and I just try to be a decent person. Really, I am just an average person so what else can I do?
      - imiric 5y ago
        Even if I'm wrong and governments don't reflect the people, my main point is that there are many issues with Chinese culture itself that should be criticized. This common phrase of "I don't like the Chinese government but I like the people" as a way to not appear xenophobic is what I'm arguing against. We definitely should be able to criticize wrong cultural behavior, and China has plenty of that.
    - adrian_b 5y ago
      There is some truth in what you say that even in a dictatorship the government needs the support of some people to remain in power. The problem is that it is enough for only a small minority to support the government for it to keep the power forever. I have been born in a country occupied by communists and there for many decades an overwhelming majority of the people wished that the current government would be deleted, but nobody could do anything. It is hard to estimate how many people supported the government, but it is very unlikely that they were more than 5% of the total population. Nevertheless, that was enough to make impossible to organize any kind of opposition against the government because any attempt would be reported by informers and the initiators would be eliminated before being able to do any action. Maybe in China there is a majority that supports the CCP, but that certainly is not a rule in dictatorships.
    - 5y ago
- Galanwe 5y ago
  > if they just stopped talking about Taiwan I doubt many people in the mainland would care Not at all. For a mainlander, Taiwan _is_ a region of China, think of it as Hawai for the US. People in the west see Taiwan as a separate country that China tries to forcibly absorb. People in mainland see Taiwan as a region of China that tries to be independent. Also, there is a lot of eyes on the Taiwan case from mainlanders because other regions of China are seen as potential underdogs for independence, due to cultural heritage (and wealth), such as Shangai.
  - dustintrex 5y ago
    And the real shame is that nobody seems to care what the people in Taiwan themselves want. (Which, overwhelmingly, is to be independent and free to go their own way.)
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    For a mainlander, Taiwan _is_ a region of China, think of it as Hawai for the US. Where I live in the Midwest USA, nobody would care if Hawai'i claimed its independence in some not-harmful-to-tourists-nor-threatening-to-military-fuel-depots fashion. That doesn't mean it would be easy. Much as was seen in the original USA annexation of Hawai'i, it is very common for interested parties to create violence where none naturally exists.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      The issue is that Taiwan is military necessary. If the US is allowed an outpost there they will use the encirclement to threaten China's security.
      - mthoms 5y ago
        That’s a pretty bold statement. When has the US ever threatened China’s internal security?
        sudosysgen 5y ago
tenpies 5y ago
[flagged]
- notpachet 5y ago
  Omicron is real. It's having very tangible impacts on the ability of countries to provide necessary healthcare services to their citizens. People who normally should be first in line to receive care (cancer patients and the like) are having their critical services interrupted or deferred. Just because you personally don't see the impact doesn't mean it isn't there.
  - satronaut 5y ago
    Source please? It sounds like the most mild of all the 99.97% survival rate variants of covid. If you don't want to get sick, then stay home, but don't tell me how to live my life
    - ricardobeat 5y ago
      Reduced death rate doesn’t change the fact hospitals are overloaded and you might not be able to get treatment for other emergencies. > stay home > don’t tell me how to live my life I hope you see the irony there. If only it was that simple. You want to be out and about, unvaccinated, putting other people at risk, while the ones who took the vaccine and are trying to stay safe stay home? Yeah right. If you want to live a “free” life you can go setup shop in an island somewhere away from civilization. Total freedom to do whatever you want.
      - uquercia 5y ago
        I got three vaccine jabs and I am totally pro vax. But the unfortunately the majority of scientific data shows that fully vaccinated people still can spread Delta variant, because neither of the current vaccines has been tailored for Delta. For omicron this is probably even worse, since it is even more contagious. So I do not see how the narrative of COVID being spread by unvaccinated is true in the end of 2021.
FooBarWidget 5y ago
It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military containment of China. The whole "first island chain" depends on it. The US knows it, China's life depends on it. There's a reason why this issue has persisted since 1949 and why it's China's "reddest of the red lines".
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  This is exactly right. The people that think China is going after Taiwan for no reason are greatly underestimating the realism of States.
  - Aeolun 5y ago
    I mean, it basically boils down to no reason though. People in China are happy. People in Taiwan are happy. What moron would start a war over it now?
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      No, there are a lot of strategic reasons beyond that. People in China and Taiwan are happy as it is right now, yes. But if the status quo changes, for example if Taiwanese independence is recognized, people will become unhappy.
- nabla9 5y ago
  Chinese Communist Party has tied it's legitimacy into uniting China. Xi has doubled down on it. Giving up would destabilize the party. It's and identity question for China. Chinese law ways that China must go to the war if peaceful unification is not possible. Even Chinese people seem to think that Taiwanese want to be part of China. In reality support for unification is about 4% of the population. The official One China Policy exists to prevent immediate start of war.
m0llusk 5y ago
Massive economic bubble, dams failing across the country, no real government accountability, doctors getting lynched if their patients die, and the list goes on
croes 5y ago
And then HK, then Tibet, then ... I doubt that China doesn't think of this possibility.
nindalf 5y ago
Edit: apologies to anyone who read my comment analysing the situation and assumed that I’m some kind of warmonger. At no point did I advocate for Taiwan to be annexed. I merely pointed out that China really wants to and they’re stronger than ever in 2021. Shoutout to the dude who implied I’m a Nazi for saying this. Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. - Diplomatic advantage. Only 14 tiny, inconsequential countries + the Vatican recognise Taiwan as a country. Everyone else acknowledges that there is “One China”. - Military advantage. Taiwan struggles to man their military. In any case the investment in the PLA in the last 10 years means no military can stand up to it except for America. Except America is at peak war weariness with the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan. They’re comfortable with Sabre rattling but it’s clear they won’t draw the sabre from the scabbard. - Economic advantage. Every country in the world needs China. China doesn’t need any single country. See how they bullied Australia and Canada successfully. This dependence on China is at an all time high. It could maybe diminish, but it’s unlikely. And Taiwan is a more compelling prize than ever. - Political incentive. The leader who integrates Taiwan will enjoy unquestioned power for the rest of their life. Xi Jinping is often described as the strongest leader of China since Mao. This would be his opportunity to become more powerful than Mao by doing something he couldn’t. Unify China and importantly, face down America and show the world who’s #1. - Economic incentive. 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy. TSMC in particular the most pivotal supplier for most of the worlds critical industries. If Taiwan could be annexed and TSMC brought under state control, China would have a bargaining chip of unparalleled power.
- ChemSpider 5y ago
  You post really shows the power and danger of nationalism. You sound like Germany 1938.
  - Diesel555 5y ago
    > You sound like Germany 1938. The author was just pointing out China's incentives. Any negotiator, a person analyzing international relation theory, or any policy maker must do this. He doesn't sound like Germany 1938. He sounds like a person trying to analyze a power dynamic. The Congressional Research Service tries to boil down complicated issues for Congressional members in public, short reports. Here is the one on Taiwan that discusses Taiwan and China in two pages (and has Lithuania). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 They do talk about China's perspective on the second page. They do not ignore it. They do not sound like Germany 1938.
asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
Why would they give up when they are winning? I personally would be really surprised if Taiwan is still independent in fifty years. I wouldn't be surprised if the situation comes to a head much sooner than that.
strogonoff 5y ago
Looks like CCP painted itself into a corner. Internally it has fostered the narrative that Taiwan is a renegade that should be brought to order for so long that citizens themselves now call for that. Walking that all back is tricky and would take a while since the government is worried about own popularity.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
kaonashi 5y ago
It's part of their country, but I guess western powers still can't give up the ghost of trying to recolonize China.
LatteLazy 5y ago
I'm pretty anti China (or rather anti the CCP). But this is the same everywhere: leaders keep foreign conflicts burning to distract from domestic issues and shore up domestic support. The UK (my country) does it with 1001 places (Greece and the Elgin Marbles, Argentina and the Falklands, German and WW1 and WW2, France and, well, everything). The US does it with Iran and Cuba. China does it with all it's neighbors. It's childish and short-termist and dangerous. But it works. That's what this is. It's Winnie the Pooh rallying support, not an actual political position.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

gedy 5y ago

Yeah I don't see the point or value at this stage. They control their media tightly, and if they just stopped talking about Taiwan I doubt many people in the mainland would care. They've proven they don't need Taiwan and vice versa.

manquer 5y ago
Control of South China sea is far too important for china to ignore Taiwan, also Taiwan's dominance in chip design/manufacturing would give china enormous influence over the world.
mark_l_watson 5y ago
+1 thanks for that, now that I think about this issue, that is the way I feel also. A few of my friends think I am overboard when I talk positively about China, but really I am just reacting to how wonderful the people there were when my wife and I travelled in China, and I also really respect their AI tech, their tech in general, and how so many people have moved out of poverty. It is just their current government that I don’t like.
- imiric 5y ago
  Governments are a reflection of the people. They're not some nebulous, abstract entity; they're literally made and run by people of each country. They're chosen–or in some cases imposed–to represent the people to the world. Even in dictatorships, it is the people that choose for governments to remain in power. When that stops being the case, governments are overthrown, and a new set of people take power. The people of China choose to allow CCP to run their country. If they were so different ideologically the CCP would no longer exist. Countries with orders of magnitude less people struggle to remain united. The fact 1.4 billion people can be represented by the same political party speaks to the strong ideological ties that are shared by most Chinese people. I would argue that those ideologies were implanted by decades of brainwashing and totalitarianism, but how it was achieved doesn't change that fact. So, yes, your experience and likely many others' is with good people. Countries are not exclusively bad or good. We can recognize those good traits that China has as a nation. But it would be wrong to also not criticize the bad aspects, and sweep them under the rug as the CCP constantly tries to do. The rampant economic and moral corruption, overfishing of world's waters and general disregard for animal life and nature, disregard for human life, widespread racism and xenophobia, isolationism, etc. These are not only governmental issues, but part of the modern Chinese culture that taints whatever good aspects we can celebrate. Undoubtedly comparisons to the US will be made, but at least we can criticize bad US aspects (both government and cultural) openly, without random US citizens coming up with defensive arguments. The US government will persecute whistleblowers for airing its dirty laundry, but we've known that for decades. I fear a world where the dominant superpower has such a culture and is closed to criticism—not only because of its oppressive government, but because of its people.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > at least we can criticize bad US aspects (both government and cultural) openly, Yup. > without random US citizens coming up with defensive arguments. Eh... No, usually not.
  - mark_l_watson 5y ago
    Seriously, I wish I had your optimism that governments reflect the people. I really do. In my worldview, and I am likely at least partially wrong, I think that almost all governments are totally controlled by corporate and elite interests - same as news media. I do try to not get too upset by this, and I just try to be a decent person. Really, I am just an average person so what else can I do?
    - imiric 5y ago
      Even if I'm wrong and governments don't reflect the people, my main point is that there are many issues with Chinese culture itself that should be criticized. This common phrase of "I don't like the Chinese government but I like the people" as a way to not appear xenophobic is what I'm arguing against. We definitely should be able to criticize wrong cultural behavior, and China has plenty of that.
  - adrian_b 5y ago
    There is some truth in what you say that even in a dictatorship the government needs the support of some people to remain in power. The problem is that it is enough for only a small minority to support the government for it to keep the power forever. I have been born in a country occupied by communists and there for many decades an overwhelming majority of the people wished that the current government would be deleted, but nobody could do anything. It is hard to estimate how many people supported the government, but it is very unlikely that they were more than 5% of the total population. Nevertheless, that was enough to make impossible to organize any kind of opposition against the government because any attempt would be reported by informers and the initiators would be eliminated before being able to do any action. Maybe in China there is a majority that supports the CCP, but that certainly is not a rule in dictatorships.
  - 5y ago
Galanwe 5y ago
> if they just stopped talking about Taiwan I doubt many people in the mainland would care Not at all. For a mainlander, Taiwan _is_ a region of China, think of it as Hawai for the US. People in the west see Taiwan as a separate country that China tries to forcibly absorb. People in mainland see Taiwan as a region of China that tries to be independent. Also, there is a lot of eyes on the Taiwan case from mainlanders because other regions of China are seen as potential underdogs for independence, due to cultural heritage (and wealth), such as Shangai.
- dustintrex 5y ago
  And the real shame is that nobody seems to care what the people in Taiwan themselves want. (Which, overwhelmingly, is to be independent and free to go their own way.)
- jessaustin 5y ago
  For a mainlander, Taiwan _is_ a region of China, think of it as Hawai for the US. Where I live in the Midwest USA, nobody would care if Hawai'i claimed its independence in some not-harmful-to-tourists-nor-threatening-to-military-fuel-depots fashion. That doesn't mean it would be easy. Much as was seen in the original USA annexation of Hawai'i, it is very common for interested parties to create violence where none naturally exists.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    The issue is that Taiwan is military necessary. If the US is allowed an outpost there they will use the encirclement to threaten China's security.
    - mthoms 5y ago
      That’s a pretty bold statement. When has the US ever threatened China’s internal security?
      - sudosysgen 5y ago

tenpies 5y ago

[flagged]

notpachet 5y ago
Omicron is real. It's having very tangible impacts on the ability of countries to provide necessary healthcare services to their citizens. People who normally should be first in line to receive care (cancer patients and the like) are having their critical services interrupted or deferred. Just because you personally don't see the impact doesn't mean it isn't there.
- satronaut 5y ago
  Source please? It sounds like the most mild of all the 99.97% survival rate variants of covid. If you don't want to get sick, then stay home, but don't tell me how to live my life
  - ricardobeat 5y ago
    Reduced death rate doesn’t change the fact hospitals are overloaded and you might not be able to get treatment for other emergencies. > stay home > don’t tell me how to live my life I hope you see the irony there. If only it was that simple. You want to be out and about, unvaccinated, putting other people at risk, while the ones who took the vaccine and are trying to stay safe stay home? Yeah right. If you want to live a “free” life you can go setup shop in an island somewhere away from civilization. Total freedom to do whatever you want.
    - uquercia 5y ago
      I got three vaccine jabs and I am totally pro vax. But the unfortunately the majority of scientific data shows that fully vaccinated people still can spread Delta variant, because neither of the current vaccines has been tailored for Delta. For omicron this is probably even worse, since it is even more contagious. So I do not see how the narrative of COVID being spread by unvaccinated is true in the end of 2021.

FooBarWidget 5y ago

It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military containment of China. The whole "first island chain" depends on it. The US knows it, China's life depends on it. There's a reason why this issue has persisted since 1949 and why it's China's "reddest of the red lines".

sudosysgen 5y ago
This is exactly right. The people that think China is going after Taiwan for no reason are greatly underestimating the realism of States.
- Aeolun 5y ago
  I mean, it basically boils down to no reason though. People in China are happy. People in Taiwan are happy. What moron would start a war over it now?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    No, there are a lot of strategic reasons beyond that. People in China and Taiwan are happy as it is right now, yes. But if the status quo changes, for example if Taiwanese independence is recognized, people will become unhappy.
nabla9 5y ago
Chinese Communist Party has tied it's legitimacy into uniting China. Xi has doubled down on it. Giving up would destabilize the party. It's and identity question for China. Chinese law ways that China must go to the war if peaceful unification is not possible. Even Chinese people seem to think that Taiwanese want to be part of China. In reality support for unification is about 4% of the population. The official One China Policy exists to prevent immediate start of war.

m0llusk 5y ago

Massive economic bubble, dams failing across the country, no real government accountability, doctors getting lynched if their patients die, and the list goes on

croes 5y ago

And then HK, then Tibet, then ... I doubt that China doesn't think of this possibility.

nindalf 5y ago

Edit: apologies to anyone who read my comment analysing the situation and assumed that I’m some kind of warmonger. At no point did I advocate for Taiwan to be annexed. I merely pointed out that China really wants to and they’re stronger than ever in 2021. Shoutout to the dude who implied I’m a Nazi for saying this. Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. - Diplomatic advantage. Only 14 tiny, inconsequential countries + the Vatican recognise Taiwan as a country. Everyone else acknowledges that there is “One China”. - Military advantage. Taiwan struggles to man their military. In any case the investment in the PLA in the last 10 years means no military can stand up to it except for America. Except America is at peak war weariness with the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan. They’re comfortable with Sabre rattling but it’s clear they won’t draw the sabre from the scabbard. - Economic advantage. Every country in the world needs China. China doesn’t need any single country. See how they bullied Australia and Canada successfully. This dependence on China is at an all time high. It could maybe diminish, but it’s unlikely. And Taiwan is a more compelling prize than ever. - Political incentive. The leader who integrates Taiwan will enjoy unquestioned power for the rest of their life. Xi Jinping is often described as the strongest leader of China since Mao. This would be his opportunity to become more powerful than Mao by doing something he couldn’t. Unify China and importantly, face down America and show the world who’s #1. - Economic incentive. 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy. TSMC in particular the most pivotal supplier for most of the worlds critical industries. If Taiwan could be annexed and TSMC brought under state control, China would have a bargaining chip of unparalleled power.

ChemSpider 5y ago
You post really shows the power and danger of nationalism. You sound like Germany 1938.
- Diesel555 5y ago
  > You sound like Germany 1938. The author was just pointing out China's incentives. Any negotiator, a person analyzing international relation theory, or any policy maker must do this. He doesn't sound like Germany 1938. He sounds like a person trying to analyze a power dynamic. The Congressional Research Service tries to boil down complicated issues for Congressional members in public, short reports. Here is the one on Taiwan that discusses Taiwan and China in two pages (and has Lithuania). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10275 They do talk about China's perspective on the second page. They do not ignore it. They do not sound like Germany 1938.

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago

Why would they give up when they are winning? I personally would be really surprised if Taiwan is still independent in fifty years. I wouldn't be surprised if the situation comes to a head much sooner than that.

strogonoff 5y ago

Looks like CCP painted itself into a corner. Internally it has fostered the narrative that Taiwan is a renegade that should be brought to order for so long that citizens themselves now call for that. Walking that all back is tricky and would take a while since the government is worried about own popularity.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

kaonashi 5y ago

It's part of their country, but I guess western powers still can't give up the ghost of trying to recolonize China.

LatteLazy 5y ago

I'm pretty anti China (or rather anti the CCP). But this is the same everywhere: leaders keep foreign conflicts burning to distract from domestic issues and shore up domestic support. The UK (my country) does it with 1001 places (Greece and the Elgin Marbles, Argentina and the Falklands, German and WW1 and WW2, France and, well, everything). The US does it with Iran and Cuba. China does it with all it's neighbors. It's childish and short-termist and dangerous. But it works. That's what this is. It's Winnie the Pooh rallying support, not an actual political position.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]