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Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norway, Nov to Dec 2021
- asah 5y agoWhoa. Smashed through the vaccines. 74% of a vaxxed+tested 117 person holiday party got Omicron from a single person who visited South Africa and tested negative multiple times.
- akkawwakka 5y agoThis should be a surprise to no one. The vaccines are designed to prevent serious disease, hospitalization, and death. Unfortunately the media has harmfully claimed that the vaccines are “less effective against Omicron” because of the reduction of prevention against any symptomatic disease… which they were never designed to prevent.
- gattilorenz 5y ago> which they were never designed to prevent But that they did reasonably well for the previous variants, and we could greatly benefit from that
- ImaCake 5y agoYeah it is pretty dire news really. Recent experience in Australia demonstrates that vaccines, especially when fresh, work really well to control the spread of Delta. But it looks like Omicron just cuts straight through that protection. A silver lining here is that none of 70 odd people infected were hospitalised. It is plausible the vaccines provided protection from hospitalisation here, but there are better ways that will be measured in coming days/weeks.
- christkv 5y agoOmicron looks like it might have changed the nature of the infection from a lower respiratory infection to an upper respiratory one leading to less serious infections. Let’s hope they are right.
- riffraff 5y agoDo you have a source for this? Everything I've read about omicron until now is "we don't know".
- _y5hn 5y agoIt was in news. It is indicated, meaning "looks like it, but we need more data to confirm thoroughly".
- mormegil 5y agoAs Noah Smith wrote: [0] > it’s easy to delude ourselves into unreasoning optimism in the face of an onrushing threat. It will still be weeks or even months before we know for sure whether Omicron is a step in the hoped-for transformation of Covid into yet another common cold virus, or whether it’s just another deadly super-variant. But interestingly, there is now some research showing a possible mechanism by which Omicron might be both more contagious and less harmful. A new study from the University of Hong Kong shows that Omicron replicates much more quickly than Delta in the upper airways, but much less quickly in the lungs, where Covid does its real damage. The study: https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c... [0]: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-update https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-u...
- NicoJuicy 5y agoPrevious research from Hong Kong mentioned this information. Spreads less in the lung, much more in the nose. Not: this is lab info ( = no human protection kicking in. The title is kinda sensational because of that) https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c...
- unlikelymordant 5y agoIndeed. Unfortunately theres a 2 week delay between a peak in infections, and the peak in hospitalisations. So we'll find out the effect of todays caseload in 2 weeks, unfortunately omicron has a doubling time of between 1.5 and 3 days, so 2 weeks from now its gonna be much worse. I really hope the info about lower hospitalisation rates is correct (across all age groups), or hospitals or gonna be smashed with cases.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- bsaul 5y agoit could actually be even worse : because of the large number of vaccinated people, it could be very possible that the variant actually spreads more on vaccinated people than non-vaccinated ones (saw a stats on that, but the numbers were too low to prove anything). ADE is still a very possible scenario.
- prohobo 5y agoHow does ADE come into this when it's just about transmission? From what I understood, ADE is mostly about severity of illness, and the severity looks to be down across the board.
- bsaul 5y agoi could be using the wrong term. Saw a researcher's work on that (aka : vaccine inducing easier spread of omikron) and thought it was the same as ADE, but i could be wrong.
- nnx 5y agoEven more of a silver lining, according to South African data (and the median age <40yo at this party), it is likely there would be no hospitalisations regardless of vaccination status…
- animal531 5y agoNo, stay calm. Here in South Africa the spread is higher than in any other wave and we also have very low percentages of vaccinations. But even so hospitalizations and deaths have been negligible. When hospitalized it's usually only for a quick stay, and deaths are basically at the same levels as for flu. The hope now is that it really spreads and becomes even milder, while protecting against the more deadly strains by displacing them.
- lottin 5y agoI agree. For all we know, it seems covid has mutated into a common cold virus.
- ImaCake 5y ago1 in a 100 people hospitalised is not the common cold. Those are still worse numbers than the flu. Sure, it probably won't make you very sick, but at a population level omicron is still a disaster.
- divbzero 5y agoThe Health Minister reported that South Africa saw 1.7% hospitalisation in the second week of the omicron wave vs. 19% hospitalisation in the same week of the delta wave [1]. Hoping the trend towards milder disease continues to pan out. [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-...
- rajup 5y agoI’m really confused that no one being hospitalized is “just a silver lining”.
- Jabbles 5y agoTLDR: an interesting discussion of a superspreader event: 117 people, 107 of whom were fully vaccinated, attended a party for 4.5 hours after checking themselves with a rapid antigen test. 66 of them were confirmed to have omicron less than 3 weeks later, the vast majority developing symptoms within 5 days. 15 others had covid that was not confirmed to be omicron.
- hef19898 5y agoAs long as we don't know that the infected people isolated for three weeks, we do have a pretty high margin of error here. Also, we would have to seperete the infected into unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Only then can we reliably tell anything.
- christkv 5y agoI’m going to assume some off the antigen tests were faulty or could not pick up the new variant.
- richardwhiuk 5y agoLikely false negative, or taken prior to symptom incubation, or somehow the guest evaded taking one at all.
- checkyoursudo 5y agoOr just user error, though that could fall into a technical reading of "guest evaded taking one at all".
- _Microft 5y agoAntigen tests detect something different from the spike protein und can find Omicron variant cases just fine. You can read more about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_rapid_antigen_test#New_COVID-19_strains https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_rapid_antigen_test#Ne...
- tapland 5y ago
- knaik94 5y agoMy takeaway from this at an individual level is get a booster shot as soon as possible if you haven't already. Can we estimate the severity of this variant on an unvaccinated population based on the symptoms seen in the vaccinated?
- prohobo 5y agoSo far evidence indicates, and I'm hoping this is true, that it's about 1/3rd as severe as Delta. South Africa (25% vaccinated?) reports much fewer people going on ventilators or even going to the hospital. Not sure what a booster shot is going to do for you unless you're particularly vulnerable.
- mmsimanga 5y agoJust to add far less people have been vaccinated in South Africa. I have heard figures between 25% and 40% at the most optimistic. Booster shots only recently approved. Omicron impact seems way less severe than in the first 3 waves we had. Government hasn't instituted any new restrictions. We still ware masks everywhere but that's about it. It is still early days but some anecdotal articles from front-line care workers indicate it is milder [0]. [0]https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/omicron-symptoms-far-milder-netcare-ceo-says/ https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/omicron-...
- fsh 5y agoBefore Omicron, South Africa had COVID under control with very little measures and a low vaccination rate. The only reasonable explanation is that a large fraction of the population has already been infected and acquired immunity that way. This means that data from South Africa is probably not a good measure for how dangerous Omicron is for people without prior immunity.
- mmsimanga 5y agoYes you are right. Figures of as many as 80%[1] of the population probably has had Covid have the quoted for a while now. So guess the question the SA government has to ask themselves is do they go ahead with the booster shots. For now Covid restrictions are at their lowest since the initial lock down in 2020. I suppose we will know in another month or two when there is enough data. [1]https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/deaths-data-shows-80-of-south-africans-may-have-had-covid/ https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/deaths-data-shows-...
- labster 5y agoI eagerly await the travel ban on Norway. In late December 2019, my family and myself, in California, caught a really bad respiratory illness. I isolated as soon as I got symptoms, but everyone else got it anyway. It was tested to not be influenza. One of us spent a day in the hospital. And I wonder if it was in fact COVID. Most papers suggest it hadn’t made it to the US yet. But here we are with a variant that caused outbreaks on other continents a week after first detection, and testing is everywhere. With all our supposed defenses and travel bans, this is the best we can do? Anyway, no way to know for sure now. We’ve all had three doses so we would have a strong immune response.
- richardwhiuk 5y agoTravel bans are being removed for Omicron as most countries already have intra-community spread anyway.
- ssl232 5y agoThat hasn't stopped Germany announcing new restrictions on visitors from the UK from tonight. Notably tests in the UK are free and the public are encouraged to do 2-3 tests per week, versus Germany where tests were up until recently chargeable, and there is a shortage of test kits. Makes you wonder whether the difference in cases between the two is really that stark.
- orra 5y agoI’m sure in a few weeks we will discover there was already widespread domestic transmission of Omicron, in Germany. When Omicron was initially discovered, the United Kingdom promptly closed its borders to several African countries—but oddly not whiter infected countries like The Netherlands. This was of course pointless politicking, and did nothing to stop the spread of Omicron in the UK, which was already established. If only the UK had instead chosen to implement decent sick pay, or immediately ramp up the booster program, or implement work from hone guidance. Instead the UK let it rip fir three weeks, before suddenly panicking.
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- lancebeet 5y agoEvents like these make the ethics of using vaccine passes (for e.g. entering stores or restaurants) a more interesting question. If the vaccine doesn't significantly stop the spread of the disease but does reduce the risk of hospitalization, then the true purpose of vaccine passes seems to be as a device for socially pressuring individuals into taking the vaccine to reduce the burden on the healthcare system, rather than a measure to control the spread of the disease.
- cedilla 5y agoNothing changed. Of course the aim of vaccination campaigns is to reduce harm. What a bizarre strawman argument. Protecting the health care system was always express goal.
- prohobo 5y agoNot even true in the frame you're attempting to talk about it: the vaccines were touted to stop transmission up until August 2021 or so, when people realized they didn't and started backsliding into touting the protection of the healthcare system. Also, what a bizarre sidestep of the actual issue being talked about: vaccine passes.
- caoilte 5y agoReduce transmission. Nobody serious ever said they would stop transmissions because they were found not to during their testing last year.
- prohobo 5y agoStop lying. We can't solve any problems if you keep denying reality. - Up until mid-2021 people still thought "transmission was exceptionally rare" in vaccinated individuals: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vacci... - Biden said it would stop transmissions: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-if-vaccinated-wont-get-covid/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-if-vaccinated-wont-g... - Fauci said it would stop transmissions: https://web.archive.org/web/20210604093134/https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/90445 https://web.archive.org/web/20210604093134/https://www.medpa... This is late stage narrative from 2021. In 2020 they were still questioning whether "breakthrough infections" were real. The narrative shifts over time, but if you know how to use a search engine you'll see it clear as day.
- BrazzVuvuzela 5y agoOmnicron is a blessing in disguise; the unvaccinated get it, more likely than not don't get hospitalized, but develop an immune response to it regardless. In other words, it effectively vaccinates the unvaccinated. I say let 'er rip, then let's all get on with our lives.
- divbzero 5y agoThat would be the least bad outcome given an already miserable pandemic. How omicron pans out in reality will depend on the balance between increased rate of spread and decreased severity. Hospitals could still be overwhelmed if the balance tips in the wrong direction.
- BrazzVuvuzela 5y agoHospital system collapse is the most pessimistic outcome. Hospitals have spent the past two years not bulking up their personnel and infrastructure, so I don't think even the medical industry earnestly considers that a serious threat. The most realistic worse case scenario is the unvaccinated get triaged out of the hospital system.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y agoThere's not convincing data that this is any better for vaccinated people than Delta. They're just more likely to get it. In neither case were vaccinated people highly likely to get hospitalized, ventilated, or die. In no world should we be celebrating people getting sick. Omicron is resistant to previous infection. It will likely mutate into something resistant to previous infection to itself. It's good vaccinated people aren't dying. We still shouldn't cheerlead them getting Covid.
- BrazzVuvuzela 5y agoI'm not cheer-leading vaccinated people getting it, I'm cheer-leading unvaccinated people getting it, conditional on it not being bad enough to hospitalize them.
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- nverno 5y ago> Among the 81 cases, the most common symptoms were cough (83%), followed by runny/stuffy nose (78%), fatigue/lethargy (74%), sore throat (72%), headache (68%) and fever (54%) Sounds like the symptoms of a typical cold. I guess most of us will get this one in the next year or two, oh well. Interesting case study, though- I find these analyses of outbreaks in common situations to be the most useful information about this stuff.
- headsoup 5y agoAnd no one of course goes to hospital from a cold (sarcasm), but if a few do from Omicron it'll be code red again and off we go. If Omicron is a fizzer and with Trump out of office what are the media going to do to keep bringing in all those precious views?
- flipbrad 5y agoN is low; average age under 40; and probably fairly fit and healthy relative to wider population (it was a workplace party). Also, this was in Oslo, so potentially not tremendously ethnically diverse either. Seeing low hospitalisation in a setting like this might be expected whatever the covid variant - I think it's somewhat dangerous to try and learn about Omicron severity from a study like this.
- roenxi 5y agoIt is far too early to say. The symptoms of COVID also sound like a pretty typical cold until the body count starts to overwhelm the hospital system. I'd at least wait until this cohort have recovered and have a confirmed average illness duration before drawing conclusions.
- mupuff1234 5y agoWhat I don't get is how come almost 2 years into this pandemic and yet it seems that the data collection pipelines are still very localized at best. It's been a few weeks and more than 100k cases of the new variant - How come we "still need more data" to have a high probability model of it's behavior?
- nycdatasci 5y agoGreat point. Of course, part of the delay here is due to the time it takes for outcomes to manifest. Omicron has only been a variant of concern for four weeks. I think a high percentage of deaths from prior variants took at least four weeks. That being said, data collection is fragmented and quality is inexcusably terrible across the board. I’m personally aware of multiple similar holiday superspreader stories in NYC. Two weeks after said events (an eternity in omicron terms) CDC was still reporting ~40 total cases of omicron nationally and there was no mention of these events in the press. Outcomes were very similar to those in the Norway event.
- jansan 5y agoI am very optimistic about Omicron, but I think we need a better categorization for non-hospitalized cases. My wife had COVID-19 in April 2020 and although she was not hospitalized, she stayed in bed for two weeks and had problems with her lungs for four more months. I really hope these cases are rare for Omicron, but I just want to point out that not being hospitalized is not necessarily the same as a mild cold and more data would be helpful.