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g, do you think the 4% thing is even a realistic recommendation today? I also having doubts that index fund investing is even beating inflation in the long run.

g, do you think the 4% thing is even a realistic recommendation today? I also having doubts that index fund investing is even beating inflation in the long run. SPY VOO etc are just 2 of the giant monetary sinks being fed by passive investment through retirement funds, pensions, etc. being cap weighted smooths out the supply from the continuous influx of new money. its growth is an indicator of monetary supply. I hope folks that have been playing that game are going to be ok when things go a bit strange. Ive never been more bullish on the orange canary in the coal mine.

nullc 5y ago
4% who knows-- at least historically it was a pretty conservative figure--, but if your concern about inflation is the ballooning money supply you should expect broad market investment to at least keep pace with inflation, since you're moving your wealth out of the supply-inflating asset. A really conservative approach for someone like the OP would be to come up with a low watermark level of spending that is enough to live comfortably, invest enough in extremely low risk investments that just keep up with inflation to support that level. Keep their long term obligations within that level of spending... then invest the rest of their money in the market and spend the additional yield discretionarily. Here is a really conservative approach for the OP's figures: Assume OP could live comfortably on 70k/yr in present dollars and that they'll live to 104. They set aside 77*70k=5.39m dollars in extremely low risk investments which merely expected to at-least meet inflation after taxes. They invest the remaining 3.04 million in riskier investments they expect to return more (market indexes, maybe a few companies, a bit of Bitcoin)-- and spend 4%/yr of that pool on discretionary spending, so an extra 120k/yr bringing their total spending budget to 190k. Re-balance every once in a while to keep the nearly-riskless pool at the right size to guarantee their base spending level -- adding to it if it under-performed cost inflation or taking from it when it over-performs. Purchase of a home could be taken out of the base spending pool, so long as care is taken to make sure the the funds needed for its maintenance and property taxes are included in it. If the riskier investments perform well the discretionary spending budget will go up, if they perform poorly they'll at least preserve their base spending level. They could do somewhat better by immediately cutting spending during down markets -- those 4% figures don't assume that you're doing that but someone whos base spending is secured by another pool of assets should have a lot of ability to do so.

nullc 5y ago

4% who knows-- at least historically it was a pretty conservative figure--, but if your concern about inflation is the ballooning money supply you should expect broad market investment to at least keep pace with inflation, since you're moving your wealth out of the supply-inflating asset. A really conservative approach for someone like the OP would be to come up with a low watermark level of spending that is enough to live comfortably, invest enough in extremely low risk investments that just keep up with inflation to support that level. Keep their long term obligations within that level of spending... then invest the rest of their money in the market and spend the additional yield discretionarily. Here is a really conservative approach for the OP's figures: Assume OP could live comfortably on 70k/yr in present dollars and that they'll live to 104. They set aside 77*70k=5.39m dollars in extremely low risk investments which merely expected to at-least meet inflation after taxes. They invest the remaining 3.04 million in riskier investments they expect to return more (market indexes, maybe a few companies, a bit of Bitcoin)-- and spend 4%/yr of that pool on discretionary spending, so an extra 120k/yr bringing their total spending budget to 190k. Re-balance every once in a while to keep the nearly-riskless pool at the right size to guarantee their base spending level -- adding to it if it under-performed cost inflation or taking from it when it over-performs. Purchase of a home could be taken out of the base spending pool, so long as care is taken to make sure the the funds needed for its maintenance and property taxes are included in it. If the riskier investments perform well the discretionary spending budget will go up, if they perform poorly they'll at least preserve their base spending level. They could do somewhat better by immediately cutting spending during down markets -- those 4% figures don't assume that you're doing that but someone whos base spending is secured by another pool of assets should have a lot of ability to do so.