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As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. I hope it's not a violent one, but who knows at this point. Hopef

As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. I hope it's not a violent one, but who knows at this point. Hopefully it's just a politician with big policy changes. People feel completely disenfranchised. You keep hanging housing over their head but just out of reach like some baby toy, then inflation spikes everything else. What's the point of working even? I don't know the solution, but I don't have a good feeling about the next 10 years.

turbinerneiter 5y ago
This year, the price of the type of place I want to buy rose so fast, that the downpayment increased by more than what I could save this year. I'm top 30% income bracket and save more then a third of my net.
whydid 5y ago
This is why I love to study history, you can almost predict the future by studying the past. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution
- selestify 5y ago
  Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results. You see many of the same trends in history, yes, but also many surprises. History repeats itself, the second time as farce.
  - random_kris 5y ago
    history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes
    - 1500100900 5y ago
      but is it "Gucci Gang" rhymes or "The expense of spirit in a waste of shame" rhymes?
      - random_kris 5y ago
        That is left as an exercise for the reader
- carabiner 5y ago
  I wish I could do this to a useful degree so that I could become a billionaire.
- thatguy0900 5y ago
  I wonder how much time we have left for a real citizen revolution. Is is not difficult to imagine a near future with an automated and mechanized military and police with equipment that cannot go rogue. People in the US like to talk about guns as protections against state tyranny but not many have automated laser point defence for drone attacks.
  - kelseyfrog 5y ago
    A work stoppage is more realistic than direct combat. What are they going to do? Force us to work? For example, with the way supply chains are right now, how much leverage do transportation/logistics workers have to force a change?
    - gentleman11 5y ago
      Strikes are illegal in many industries. So, literally, the answer is yes
      - phreeza 5y ago
        Can't force someone to not strike who never entered the workforce in a meaningful way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JXII https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JXII
      - DnDGrognard 5y ago
        Not many industries and not all strikes have to be legal
      - kelseyfrog 5y ago
        Fascinating! Any more info on which industries and by which means people would be forced to work?
  - mellavora 5y ago
    I miss the days when people were better educated in civics. You are right, people talk about guns as protection against state tyrany, but they forget that the reason it works as protection against the state is because the person bringing violence against the state is willing to become a martyr. The more the state pays in blood, the more it looses it legitimacy.
- kelseyfrog 5y ago
  You may already be a listener, but I've found great joy in listening to Mike Duncan's Revolutions[1]. It makes it easier to pick out what structures, people, and events today might make their way into history books(or podcasts of the future) one hundred years from now should things go pear-shaped. There are many points to be made, but one that tends to go less appreciated is that in the period leading up to the dramatic revolutionary events there isn't a constant increase in tension. There are flare ups of course, but they punctuate years of relative peace. Just because tensions die down for a bit does not mean things are getting fixed. Quite the opposite, it lulls people into complacency. That is, until the systemic deficiencies paired with personalities unable to address them collide and everything falls apart. 1. https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/ https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/
- knowaveragejoe 5y ago
  Ah yes, a violent revolution that achieved none of its stated goals and lead to immense tragedy amongst the people it was ostensibly trying to help.
- goodpoint 5y ago
  Reminder: the level of inequality before the French revolution was *lower* that what it is now.
  - ericd 5y ago
    Another reminder: food was far more expensive then, they had food shortages, and a significant portion of the population could barely afford to eat. It is certainly not worse right now.
- throaway46546 5y ago
  Sometimes it doesn't end as well... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...
vlunkr 5y ago
I don't know, if you hang out in certain parts of the internet, it feels like a revolution is coming, but it reality Bernie still can't win the primaries, so I don't think the numbers are actually there. But I also won't be surprised if the next generation of voters is more socialist-leaning.
- turbinerneiter 5y ago
  The revolution will not come from the left. The "left" elites have forgotten the people, and the left in general is talking more about identity issues than class issues. The revolution will be more Trump than Bernie. Like in the early 1900, where more revolutions where fascist than communist.
  - door103 5y ago
    > The "left" elites have forgotten the people, and the left in general is talking more about identity issues than class issues. You mention this in a discussion about Bernie Sanders? Probably the politician with the most single-minded focus on class politics in the country
    - tobltobs 5y ago
      > The "left" elites Bernie isn't elite and not close to any power circle.
      - jordan_curve 5y ago
        What do you mean? He is currently a U.S. Senator. There aren’t many circles more elite or powerful than that.
        anshumankmr 5y ago
        Plus he is a multi-millionaire.
zipiridu 5y ago
Watch Ray Dalio's videos on the long term debt cycle and how the economy works in general. Another interesting topic is what is called the "fourth turning" which sort of says that major changes happen around once a human lifecycle. We are going to have some major economic changes in the next decade, but no one knows how that will look. I think it's 50/50 whether it's violent or not.
- kccqzy 5y ago
  I read the fourth turning book. I couldn't finish it just because how tenuous the argument was. It was also debunked by experts. I find it absolutely not interesting at all.
  - dgb23 5y ago
    What is far more interesting is people seeing through the bullshit. Large parts of our lives have been bureaucratized and oozes with an arrogant and paternalistic ideology that tells us how much we’re worth as if it was a law of nature. Workers find solidarity, meaning and community among peers and realize that we have real power and can have a say in our lives. I expect this to grow and I hope it creates a counterbalance to centralized power structures that are quite frankly often severely detached from reality.
  - angryfeller 5y ago
    Source for the debunk? Who are these experts you speak of?
- futharkshill 5y ago
  You are being overly dramatic. A hundred years ago, workers were treated so bad and had such bad living conditions it makes you sick just to hear about it. THAT lead to some violent revolutions in some countries, most of them young, undemocratic, or unstable. Some of them migrated 2,000 km from their home. People have food, shelter, entertainment.
  - cabraca 5y ago
res0nat0r 5y ago
The only oncoming revolution is the status quo. The Democrats aren't going to pass any voting rights legislation while they have the chance, and are going to allow the GOP to enshrine minority rule for the foreseeable future starting in 2022. A minority of the voting electorate is perfectly fine with this, and are situated such that their votes matter more than the majority to let this happen. There's a reason why the rightwing in the USA have embraced Putin and Eastern European soft dictators within the last 10 years, as it allows for massive government/friends of government grifting and minority suppression as a governing platform with public support.
holografix 5y ago
It already came and half went. It was represented by Donald Trump, the rise of the right in Europe and the alignment of Russia and China for short term push back on the west. DT would never have been elected if _any_ of the architects of the GFC had gone to jail. Imho that was Obama’s biggest mistake. Bailouts could be justifiable and understood by the population, no one going to jail was a betrayal. It caused a tipping point in the erosion of trust in the established political class and in the American democracy. The vitriol directed against Hilary was a symptom of that distrust
- unionpivo 5y ago
  nah this are just precursors of the real thing, whatever it will be. People are sick of status quo. That's why more and more are willing to try anything that will shake things up.
- knowaveragejoe 5y ago
  I'm surprised to find this level of shallow take on HN. No, the rise of the populist right is not the natural reaction, it's just was convenient at the time for various plutocrats to direct energy towards. If that dog caught the metaphorical car, it wouldn't result in an outcome any reasonable person would agree with.
- JohnWhigham 5y ago
  It already came and half went. Yup, and the worse part? Nothing changed. Trump didn't didn't do a single fucking thing of material value to ameliorate the positions of those who voted for him, or the middle class for that matter. And yet he's almost sure to win again in 2024. I think in an astonishingly short amount of time, people in the West forgot what revolution is.
  - lelanthran 5y ago
    > And yet he's almost sure to win again in 2024. Wait, what? He's running again?
    - 5y ago
hungryforcodes 5y ago
Not to dismiss your point -- because it maybe true -- but don't Americans say this like pretty much all the time? Between survivalists to qAnon supporters it's always about revolution in the country. I'm not saying you are part of any of those, but it seems to me that in reality people in the US just adapt and life goes on...
innocentoldguy 5y ago
I feel the same way. I hope I'm wrong, but my prediction is that we will have another civil war in the US within the next 10 years. We cannot continue our current cancel culture and political hatred indefinitely. It will come to a head and people will start killing each other. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but unless we get off our current trajectory, I fear I'm not. I sincerely hope this comment ages more poorly than any comment ever made.
kamaal 5y ago
>>As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. As some one who lives in India, where inflation is perennially high. I can assure you revolution is not coming, in fact not even a protest march. Revolutions needs a lot of hunger and suffering, its not things like milk going from being $9 to $12 a unit. The common man delays things like fighting for almost as long as they can, its only when things just go too far do things like revolution happen. USA is not even remotely close to any such situation.
- fareesh 5y ago
  Culturally, the average person here in India is absolutely clueless about what freedom is. The idea of small government is non-existent in the minds of people. Based on hundreds of conversations with my red state friends, attitudes are very different. You may be right, but the comparison is missing many key details.
  - kamaal 5y ago
    People who are obese enough to not take take stairs but elevators cant fight revolutions by definition. That is why they have elections, and one way or other democracy fixes most of these problems. Even if the fix is not perfect, or entirely acceptable to everyone. Revolutions are just totally a different thing altogether and you need way more than milk and egg prices going up, or your favorite politician not getting elected to happen.
  - willcipriano 5y ago
    Workers in India have it rough, the concept of releasing letters[0] is quite offensive to my western ear. You give me permission to leave? With H1B it's not much better in the US, lets say your job is taking advantage of you, working you 80 hour weeks, one day you decide that you want to go to your daughters big soccer game and they fire you for it. Find a new job in 30 days (?) or move out of the country. Children in the workhouses during industrial revolution had more mobility. Absolutely bonkers. Clearly designed to be explotative. My Indian peers have been as good as my western ones on average. I understand the motivations, but you guys really don't have to put up with this. If anyone should revolt it's them. [0]https://resume.naukri.com/relieving-letter-format https://resume.naukri.com/relieving-letter-format
mellavora 5y ago
Yeah, on that violent revolution thing. I've been thinking about it alot for the last few years, and then it dawned on me. 6 Jan 2021. The violent revolution will always need a leader. In a democracy, that leader will establish some level of political success. These statements derive directly from the definitions. So what we need to be on the lookout for is a political leader who normalizes mobs and violence, and quasi-political groups/associations which further encourage it. Jan 6 2021 Proud Boys QAnon If you forgive the Goodwin, the example is developments originating in Germany prior to WWII. See for example Kristallnacht, Nov 1938, Vienna, Austria, and the "spontaneous" mobs responsible for large amounts of the violence
- fundad 5y ago
  Yes and many state houses were attacked on Jan 6 the weeks leading up to that, people closed a state legislature. Combine those and public schools with rising violence at private-sector workplaces (YouTube, VTA, clerks shot dead over masks) The revolution is here in the form of workplace violence. Big employers are actually afraid to comment for fear of looking biased against the GOP
- notreallyserio 5y ago
  Jan 6th could have been so much worse if the President had merely asked, that's how close we got. The pieces were in place and one word, perhaps "go" or "now", would have been enough to cause substantially more injuries and deaths.
zucker42 5y ago
I don't think the conditions are close to a large scale revolution in the U.S., especially if you mean a violent revolution. First, there is not a high level of discord in society. Upheavals in the 70s were much more significant than those now. Second, most people blame one or the other political party for our problems, rather than the established order generally, making it more likely people will fight within the bounds of the existing political system.
- ModernMech 5y ago
  > making it more likely people will fight within the bounds of the existing political system. You are aware there was a violent disruption to the peaceful transfer of power last year, right? Since then, predicated on lies, partisans have changed the system to give political parties full control of election results; and the January 6th Committee has essentially uncovered and extensive coup plot that spans the White House, DOJ, and DoD. We are so far outside of the bounds of the system as we know it that it’s scary people don’t recognize it yet. EDIT: I'm going to expand upon this because of the dead comment to me, which calls Jan 6 a "riot". It's clear that there is an effort afoot to minimize the events of Jan 6. This needs to end asap because of what the Jan 6 Committee is uncovering. Jan 6 was not a riot, it was the last stage of a coup plot that started at least the day of the election, before the final results had even been tallied. It's detailed most clearly in the Eastman Memo, authored by John Eastman [0]. The coup plot spanned the White House, Department of Defense, Department of Justice, state legislatures, various members of Congress and the Senate, various lawyers, and of course various paramilitary groups. The plan was: 1) Pence must declare Arizona invalid when counting certificates of the vote. Specifically Arizona because of the closest states, it comes first alphabetically, and so is counted the soonest. 2) Democrats object, so the matter is taken to the House 3) Voting is done by State Delegation according to the Constitution. Republicans control a majority of delegations, so they would vote in Trump, thus ending democracy in America. The problem with this plan was that there was no reason to reject any certificate. There was no fraud on the scale Trump claimed. So they tried to litigate, but that failed because they couldn't prove their allegations. Then they tried to strong-arm state election officials by threatening them with jailtime if they didn't manufacture fraudulent votes. That failed as well. They also tried to convince friendly Republican state legislatures to send an alternate slate of electors. That failed as well. They even went so far as to put pressure on state elections boards and county elections officials. This came in the form of threats and intimidation. Trump put pressure on AG Bill Barr to declare the results suspicious but Barr did the opposite, claimed there was no proof of fraud, and he quit because he was smart enough to realize what was going on. All of this failed because people were just doing their job of running elections in an apolitical matter. After those efforts, Pence was still wavering on whether to declare Arizona invalid. He needed more pretext so Trump leaned on the Justice department. No one there would open the demanded pretextual investigation except Jeffrey Clark , who was several rungs down the order of succession for acting AG after Barr left. Trump wanted to make him acting AG to open the investigation, but essentially every senior member of the DOJ threatened to quit if he did that, thus ruining the pretext of the investigation, so that failed. So how do you execute the Eastman memo without Pence? Disrupt the proceedings. The Jan 6. counting of electoral votes is the last stop in the Presidential selection process. If you delay that, you're in extraconstitutional territory. Think of it like a buffer overflow. You're in undefined space where the rules are made by those in power. And guess who had power at the time? Thus the plan became to hold the Capitol as long as possible in the event that Pence failed to do what Trump wanted. The plan was to generate a great crowd at the ellipse, whip them to a frenzy, point them at the capitol, and if Pence certified Arizona, to then call him out on twitter. Within the crowd they threaded several paramilitary groups including the Prod Boys, Oath Keepers, and 3%ers. While the vast majority of people were not there with any specific goal, there were groups there with the premeditated intent of breaching and occupying the Capitol. But to penetrate all of the security, they needed a mob. You can see these paramilitary groups slithering through the riot crowd like a snake through water in many of the videos from that day. They move in formation and came prepared with uniforms and equipment. Their goal was not to kill anyone, but it was to occupy the capitol for as long as possible. That's why they didn't come with an arsenal, because they knew as soon as the guns come out on one side, they come out on the other side. To hold the Capitol for as long as possible, they would have to delay the National Guard from showing up. Thus, right after the election when Sec. Esper refused to call the election fraudulent, he was fired and replaced (essentially) with a Trump loyalist Kash Patel. That's why you keep hearing the phrase 187 minutes from the Jan 6 Committee. Because for 3 hours almost, Kash Patel did nothing as far as sending the National Guard, and he did nothing because he was ordered to do nothing (or as it may be more likely, wasn't ordered to do anything, despite urgent need, a dereliction of duty). Why? What were they trying to do during this time. Well: 1) they were seeing how bad it was going to get. The worse it gets, the better a justification for extraordinary uses of power. 2) They were continuing to lean on state legislatures during this time to send alternate slates of electors. Giuliani and Sen. Mo Brooks were texting at the time, with Rudy telling him to stall as long as possible. 3) They were waiting for Pence to evacuate the building, but he refused. Ultimately this part of the plan failed because of sheer luck. If any hostages were taken, it probably would have worked. This is why many want Officer Goodman as Time person of the year, because he singlehandedly goaded the mob away from the Senate chambers where he knew many members were hiding. -- Now take a step back. What have I just described? I've detailed the efforts of a sitting President to use his powers as President to fraudulently remain in power despite an opponent being duly elected under the system in place. That's a literal autocoup. That's not a mere riot. That's how democracies die. If that plan had worked, that's the end of Constitutional order in America. So how does this plan work in the future? Well: 1) make voting harder. Georgia flipped blue this year because there was surge of minority support in a few key counties by just enough votes. Make voting harder in just those counties, and next time maybe it won't flip by just enough votes. These efforts have been passed into law. 2) Spread FUD about voting. This justifies unbounded skepticism of any election result, no matter how above board. This has been going on for a year and now a large portion of our country believe there was fraud in the 2020 election. 3) Take partisan control of state elections. A lot of the above could have been avoided if Georgia had just "found" missing votes like Trump had asked in the first place. Or if Barr had concluded there was basis for an investigation. Or if state legislatures had just "decided" to send electors they preferred as opposed to ones the voters preferred. For example, Fulton County, which saw no fraud and which has been under non-partisan control forever, is now under partisan Republican control by people who are very sure there was fraud in the 2020 election, even though they can't identify any in Fulton County. But they are there to make sure there is never any fraud again. Which we all need to take to mean that they are there to make sure that a Democrat never wins Georgia again in a close decision. There's no other way to interpret this effort. Now you can call any results fraudulent, send any electors you want to the counting of the certificates, and leave it up to the Supreme Court to decide. Fingers crossed! [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memorandums https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memorandums
comeonseriously 5y ago
> As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. I keep telling people something has to give soon. The pressures at the fault line are rising.

turbinerneiter 5y ago

This year, the price of the type of place I want to buy rose so fast, that the downpayment increased by more than what I could save this year. I'm top 30% income bracket and save more then a third of my net.

whydid 5y ago

This is why I love to study history, you can almost predict the future by studying the past. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution

selestify 5y ago
Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results. You see many of the same trends in history, yes, but also many surprises. History repeats itself, the second time as farce.
- random_kris 5y ago
  history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes
  - 1500100900 5y ago
    but is it "Gucci Gang" rhymes or "The expense of spirit in a waste of shame" rhymes?
    - random_kris 5y ago
      That is left as an exercise for the reader
carabiner 5y ago
I wish I could do this to a useful degree so that I could become a billionaire.
thatguy0900 5y ago
I wonder how much time we have left for a real citizen revolution. Is is not difficult to imagine a near future with an automated and mechanized military and police with equipment that cannot go rogue. People in the US like to talk about guns as protections against state tyranny but not many have automated laser point defence for drone attacks.
- kelseyfrog 5y ago
  A work stoppage is more realistic than direct combat. What are they going to do? Force us to work? For example, with the way supply chains are right now, how much leverage do transportation/logistics workers have to force a change?
  - gentleman11 5y ago
    Strikes are illegal in many industries. So, literally, the answer is yes
    - phreeza 5y ago
      Can't force someone to not strike who never entered the workforce in a meaningful way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JXII https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JXII
    - DnDGrognard 5y ago
      Not many industries and not all strikes have to be legal
    - kelseyfrog 5y ago
      Fascinating! Any more info on which industries and by which means people would be forced to work?
- mellavora 5y ago
  I miss the days when people were better educated in civics. You are right, people talk about guns as protection against state tyrany, but they forget that the reason it works as protection against the state is because the person bringing violence against the state is willing to become a martyr. The more the state pays in blood, the more it looses it legitimacy.
kelseyfrog 5y ago
You may already be a listener, but I've found great joy in listening to Mike Duncan's Revolutions[1]. It makes it easier to pick out what structures, people, and events today might make their way into history books(or podcasts of the future) one hundred years from now should things go pear-shaped. There are many points to be made, but one that tends to go less appreciated is that in the period leading up to the dramatic revolutionary events there isn't a constant increase in tension. There are flare ups of course, but they punctuate years of relative peace. Just because tensions die down for a bit does not mean things are getting fixed. Quite the opposite, it lulls people into complacency. That is, until the systemic deficiencies paired with personalities unable to address them collide and everything falls apart. 1. https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/ https://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/revolutions_podcast/
knowaveragejoe 5y ago
Ah yes, a violent revolution that achieved none of its stated goals and lead to immense tragedy amongst the people it was ostensibly trying to help.
goodpoint 5y ago
Reminder: the level of inequality before the French revolution was *lower* that what it is now.
- ericd 5y ago
  Another reminder: food was far more expensive then, they had food shortages, and a significant portion of the population could barely afford to eat. It is certainly not worse right now.
throaway46546 5y ago
Sometimes it doesn't end as well... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...

vlunkr 5y ago

I don't know, if you hang out in certain parts of the internet, it feels like a revolution is coming, but it reality Bernie still can't win the primaries, so I don't think the numbers are actually there. But I also won't be surprised if the next generation of voters is more socialist-leaning.

turbinerneiter 5y ago
The revolution will not come from the left. The "left" elites have forgotten the people, and the left in general is talking more about identity issues than class issues. The revolution will be more Trump than Bernie. Like in the early 1900, where more revolutions where fascist than communist.
- door103 5y ago
  > The "left" elites have forgotten the people, and the left in general is talking more about identity issues than class issues. You mention this in a discussion about Bernie Sanders? Probably the politician with the most single-minded focus on class politics in the country
  - tobltobs 5y ago
    > The "left" elites Bernie isn't elite and not close to any power circle.
    - jordan_curve 5y ago
      What do you mean? He is currently a U.S. Senator. There aren’t many circles more elite or powerful than that.
      - anshumankmr 5y ago
        Plus he is a multi-millionaire.

zipiridu 5y ago

Watch Ray Dalio's videos on the long term debt cycle and how the economy works in general. Another interesting topic is what is called the "fourth turning" which sort of says that major changes happen around once a human lifecycle. We are going to have some major economic changes in the next decade, but no one knows how that will look. I think it's 50/50 whether it's violent or not.

kccqzy 5y ago
I read the fourth turning book. I couldn't finish it just because how tenuous the argument was. It was also debunked by experts. I find it absolutely not interesting at all.
- dgb23 5y ago
  What is far more interesting is people seeing through the bullshit. Large parts of our lives have been bureaucratized and oozes with an arrogant and paternalistic ideology that tells us how much we’re worth as if it was a law of nature. Workers find solidarity, meaning and community among peers and realize that we have real power and can have a say in our lives. I expect this to grow and I hope it creates a counterbalance to centralized power structures that are quite frankly often severely detached from reality.
- angryfeller 5y ago
  Source for the debunk? Who are these experts you speak of?
futharkshill 5y ago
You are being overly dramatic. A hundred years ago, workers were treated so bad and had such bad living conditions it makes you sick just to hear about it. THAT lead to some violent revolutions in some countries, most of them young, undemocratic, or unstable. Some of them migrated 2,000 km from their home. People have food, shelter, entertainment.
- cabraca 5y ago

res0nat0r 5y ago

The only oncoming revolution is the status quo. The Democrats aren't going to pass any voting rights legislation while they have the chance, and are going to allow the GOP to enshrine minority rule for the foreseeable future starting in 2022. A minority of the voting electorate is perfectly fine with this, and are situated such that their votes matter more than the majority to let this happen. There's a reason why the rightwing in the USA have embraced Putin and Eastern European soft dictators within the last 10 years, as it allows for massive government/friends of government grifting and minority suppression as a governing platform with public support.

holografix 5y ago

It already came and half went. It was represented by Donald Trump, the rise of the right in Europe and the alignment of Russia and China for short term push back on the west. DT would never have been elected if _any_ of the architects of the GFC had gone to jail. Imho that was Obama’s biggest mistake. Bailouts could be justifiable and understood by the population, no one going to jail was a betrayal. It caused a tipping point in the erosion of trust in the established political class and in the American democracy. The vitriol directed against Hilary was a symptom of that distrust

unionpivo 5y ago
nah this are just precursors of the real thing, whatever it will be. People are sick of status quo. That's why more and more are willing to try anything that will shake things up.
knowaveragejoe 5y ago
I'm surprised to find this level of shallow take on HN. No, the rise of the populist right is not the natural reaction, it's just was convenient at the time for various plutocrats to direct energy towards. If that dog caught the metaphorical car, it wouldn't result in an outcome any reasonable person would agree with.
JohnWhigham 5y ago
It already came and half went. Yup, and the worse part? Nothing changed. Trump didn't didn't do a single fucking thing of material value to ameliorate the positions of those who voted for him, or the middle class for that matter. And yet he's almost sure to win again in 2024. I think in an astonishingly short amount of time, people in the West forgot what revolution is.
- lelanthran 5y ago
  > And yet he's almost sure to win again in 2024. Wait, what? He's running again?
  - 5y ago

hungryforcodes 5y ago

Not to dismiss your point -- because it maybe true -- but don't Americans say this like pretty much all the time? Between survivalists to qAnon supporters it's always about revolution in the country. I'm not saying you are part of any of those, but it seems to me that in reality people in the US just adapt and life goes on...

innocentoldguy 5y ago

I feel the same way. I hope I'm wrong, but my prediction is that we will have another civil war in the US within the next 10 years. We cannot continue our current cancel culture and political hatred indefinitely. It will come to a head and people will start killing each other. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but unless we get off our current trajectory, I fear I'm not. I sincerely hope this comment ages more poorly than any comment ever made.

kamaal 5y ago

>>As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. As some one who lives in India, where inflation is perennially high. I can assure you revolution is not coming, in fact not even a protest march. Revolutions needs a lot of hunger and suffering, its not things like milk going from being $9 to $12 a unit. The common man delays things like fighting for almost as long as they can, its only when things just go too far do things like revolution happen. USA is not even remotely close to any such situation.

fareesh 5y ago
Culturally, the average person here in India is absolutely clueless about what freedom is. The idea of small government is non-existent in the minds of people. Based on hundreds of conversations with my red state friends, attitudes are very different. You may be right, but the comparison is missing many key details.
- kamaal 5y ago
  People who are obese enough to not take take stairs but elevators cant fight revolutions by definition. That is why they have elections, and one way or other democracy fixes most of these problems. Even if the fix is not perfect, or entirely acceptable to everyone. Revolutions are just totally a different thing altogether and you need way more than milk and egg prices going up, or your favorite politician not getting elected to happen.
- willcipriano 5y ago
  Workers in India have it rough, the concept of releasing letters[0] is quite offensive to my western ear. You give me permission to leave? With H1B it's not much better in the US, lets say your job is taking advantage of you, working you 80 hour weeks, one day you decide that you want to go to your daughters big soccer game and they fire you for it. Find a new job in 30 days (?) or move out of the country. Children in the workhouses during industrial revolution had more mobility. Absolutely bonkers. Clearly designed to be explotative. My Indian peers have been as good as my western ones on average. I understand the motivations, but you guys really don't have to put up with this. If anyone should revolt it's them. [0]https://resume.naukri.com/relieving-letter-format https://resume.naukri.com/relieving-letter-format

mellavora 5y ago

Yeah, on that violent revolution thing. I've been thinking about it alot for the last few years, and then it dawned on me. 6 Jan 2021. The violent revolution will always need a leader. In a democracy, that leader will establish some level of political success. These statements derive directly from the definitions. So what we need to be on the lookout for is a political leader who normalizes mobs and violence, and quasi-political groups/associations which further encourage it. Jan 6 2021 Proud Boys QAnon If you forgive the Goodwin, the example is developments originating in Germany prior to WWII. See for example Kristallnacht, Nov 1938, Vienna, Austria, and the "spontaneous" mobs responsible for large amounts of the violence

fundad 5y ago
Yes and many state houses were attacked on Jan 6 the weeks leading up to that, people closed a state legislature. Combine those and public schools with rising violence at private-sector workplaces (YouTube, VTA, clerks shot dead over masks) The revolution is here in the form of workplace violence. Big employers are actually afraid to comment for fear of looking biased against the GOP
notreallyserio 5y ago
Jan 6th could have been so much worse if the President had merely asked, that's how close we got. The pieces were in place and one word, perhaps "go" or "now", would have been enough to cause substantially more injuries and deaths.

zucker42 5y ago

I don't think the conditions are close to a large scale revolution in the U.S., especially if you mean a violent revolution. First, there is not a high level of discord in society. Upheavals in the 70s were much more significant than those now. Second, most people blame one or the other political party for our problems, rather than the established order generally, making it more likely people will fight within the bounds of the existing political system.

ModernMech 5y ago
> making it more likely people will fight within the bounds of the existing political system. You are aware there was a violent disruption to the peaceful transfer of power last year, right? Since then, predicated on lies, partisans have changed the system to give political parties full control of election results; and the January 6th Committee has essentially uncovered and extensive coup plot that spans the White House, DOJ, and DoD. We are so far outside of the bounds of the system as we know it that it’s scary people don’t recognize it yet. EDIT: I'm going to expand upon this because of the dead comment to me, which calls Jan 6 a "riot". It's clear that there is an effort afoot to minimize the events of Jan 6. This needs to end asap because of what the Jan 6 Committee is uncovering. Jan 6 was not a riot, it was the last stage of a coup plot that started at least the day of the election, before the final results had even been tallied. It's detailed most clearly in the Eastman Memo, authored by John Eastman [0]. The coup plot spanned the White House, Department of Defense, Department of Justice, state legislatures, various members of Congress and the Senate, various lawyers, and of course various paramilitary groups. The plan was: 1) Pence must declare Arizona invalid when counting certificates of the vote. Specifically Arizona because of the closest states, it comes first alphabetically, and so is counted the soonest. 2) Democrats object, so the matter is taken to the House 3) Voting is done by State Delegation according to the Constitution. Republicans control a majority of delegations, so they would vote in Trump, thus ending democracy in America. The problem with this plan was that there was no reason to reject any certificate. There was no fraud on the scale Trump claimed. So they tried to litigate, but that failed because they couldn't prove their allegations. Then they tried to strong-arm state election officials by threatening them with jailtime if they didn't manufacture fraudulent votes. That failed as well. They also tried to convince friendly Republican state legislatures to send an alternate slate of electors. That failed as well. They even went so far as to put pressure on state elections boards and county elections officials. This came in the form of threats and intimidation. Trump put pressure on AG Bill Barr to declare the results suspicious but Barr did the opposite, claimed there was no proof of fraud, and he quit because he was smart enough to realize what was going on. All of this failed because people were just doing their job of running elections in an apolitical matter. After those efforts, Pence was still wavering on whether to declare Arizona invalid. He needed more pretext so Trump leaned on the Justice department. No one there would open the demanded pretextual investigation except Jeffrey Clark , who was several rungs down the order of succession for acting AG after Barr left. Trump wanted to make him acting AG to open the investigation, but essentially every senior member of the DOJ threatened to quit if he did that, thus ruining the pretext of the investigation, so that failed. So how do you execute the Eastman memo without Pence? Disrupt the proceedings. The Jan 6. counting of electoral votes is the last stop in the Presidential selection process. If you delay that, you're in extraconstitutional territory. Think of it like a buffer overflow. You're in undefined space where the rules are made by those in power. And guess who had power at the time? Thus the plan became to hold the Capitol as long as possible in the event that Pence failed to do what Trump wanted. The plan was to generate a great crowd at the ellipse, whip them to a frenzy, point them at the capitol, and if Pence certified Arizona, to then call him out on twitter. Within the crowd they threaded several paramilitary groups including the Prod Boys, Oath Keepers, and 3%ers. While the vast majority of people were not there with any specific goal, there were groups there with the premeditated intent of breaching and occupying the Capitol. But to penetrate all of the security, they needed a mob. You can see these paramilitary groups slithering through the riot crowd like a snake through water in many of the videos from that day. They move in formation and came prepared with uniforms and equipment. Their goal was not to kill anyone, but it was to occupy the capitol for as long as possible. That's why they didn't come with an arsenal, because they knew as soon as the guns come out on one side, they come out on the other side. To hold the Capitol for as long as possible, they would have to delay the National Guard from showing up. Thus, right after the election when Sec. Esper refused to call the election fraudulent, he was fired and replaced (essentially) with a Trump loyalist Kash Patel. That's why you keep hearing the phrase 187 minutes from the Jan 6 Committee. Because for 3 hours almost, Kash Patel did nothing as far as sending the National Guard, and he did nothing because he was ordered to do nothing (or as it may be more likely, wasn't ordered to do anything, despite urgent need, a dereliction of duty). Why? What were they trying to do during this time. Well: 1) they were seeing how bad it was going to get. The worse it gets, the better a justification for extraordinary uses of power. 2) They were continuing to lean on state legislatures during this time to send alternate slates of electors. Giuliani and Sen. Mo Brooks were texting at the time, with Rudy telling him to stall as long as possible. 3) They were waiting for Pence to evacuate the building, but he refused. Ultimately this part of the plan failed because of sheer luck. If any hostages were taken, it probably would have worked. This is why many want Officer Goodman as Time person of the year, because he singlehandedly goaded the mob away from the Senate chambers where he knew many members were hiding. -- Now take a step back. What have I just described? I've detailed the efforts of a sitting President to use his powers as President to fraudulently remain in power despite an opponent being duly elected under the system in place. That's a literal autocoup. That's not a mere riot. That's how democracies die. If that plan had worked, that's the end of Constitutional order in America. So how does this plan work in the future? Well: 1) make voting harder. Georgia flipped blue this year because there was surge of minority support in a few key counties by just enough votes. Make voting harder in just those counties, and next time maybe it won't flip by just enough votes. These efforts have been passed into law. 2) Spread FUD about voting. This justifies unbounded skepticism of any election result, no matter how above board. This has been going on for a year and now a large portion of our country believe there was fraud in the 2020 election. 3) Take partisan control of state elections. A lot of the above could have been avoided if Georgia had just "found" missing votes like Trump had asked in the first place. Or if Barr had concluded there was basis for an investigation. Or if state legislatures had just "decided" to send electors they preferred as opposed to ones the voters preferred. For example, Fulton County, which saw no fraud and which has been under non-partisan control forever, is now under partisan Republican control by people who are very sure there was fraud in the 2020 election, even though they can't identify any in Fulton County. But they are there to make sure there is never any fraud again. Which we all need to take to mean that they are there to make sure that a Democrat never wins Georgia again in a close decision. There's no other way to interpret this effort. Now you can call any results fraudulent, send any electors you want to the counting of the certificates, and leave it up to the Supreme Court to decide. Fingers crossed! [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memorandums https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memorandums

comeonseriously 5y ago

> As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. I keep telling people something has to give soon. The pressures at the fault line are rising.