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The talk about the impending russian invasion of Ukraine has been on for a while. Since I'm based in Poland, I'm trying to get as much information as possible,

by mszcz 5y ago

The talk about the impending russian invasion of Ukraine has been on for a while. Since I'm based in Poland, I'm trying to get as much information as possible, as this makes me nervous and will probably affect me in some ways. The one thing I'm wondering is, in the horrible event of invasion of Ukraine, is how it's going to affect the markets and how to protect what little wealth I've got saved up. Anyone got any ideas on that? I do know that this sounds a little tone deaf but it's what I worry about, sorry.

nradov 5y ago
As a long term investor, geographic diversification is always a good idea. For example the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) can be a good way to hedge against risks in Poland. You might not be able to purchase VT specifically, but you probably have access to something similar. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VT https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VT
ivan_gammel 5y ago
The invasion already happened according to the article, it's just Russia lost plausible deniability for it with this document. Full scale invasion to defeat Ukrainian government is very unlikely: Russian military prefers information wars to the offline operations now and makes them part of the strategy. The news about troops deployed on the border are intended to create sense of danger and uncertainty that can be used in the negotiations process to strengthen their position. Public in Russia is now very critical of the government and will not tolerate a new big war: this is the main constraining factor and probably the only one that is really taken into account.
- baud147258 5y ago
  > Full scale invasion to defeat Ukrainian government is very unlikely I don't think that Russia would be even interested to take control of the rest of Ukraine, as the current situation seems to fit their goals: they're keeping control over Crimea, so they're keeping their access to the sea there. And with the Donbass situation, Ukraine won't join NATO anytime soon, so they won't see US bases and missiles being installed next to their borders
  - mszcz 5y ago
    Still, hope for the best, plan for the worst. You guys got any ideas how to protect your assets (no matter how little), how everything will move on the markets if the shit hits the fan? I mean, sure, we can argue will they, won't they. I just don't want to be caught with my pants down if shit really hits the fan.

by mszcz 5y ago

nradov 5y ago

As a long term investor, geographic diversification is always a good idea. For example the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) can be a good way to hedge against risks in Poland. You might not be able to purchase VT specifically, but you probably have access to something similar. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VT https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VT

ivan_gammel 5y ago

The invasion already happened according to the article, it's just Russia lost plausible deniability for it with this document. Full scale invasion to defeat Ukrainian government is very unlikely: Russian military prefers information wars to the offline operations now and makes them part of the strategy. The news about troops deployed on the border are intended to create sense of danger and uncertainty that can be used in the negotiations process to strengthen their position. Public in Russia is now very critical of the government and will not tolerate a new big war: this is the main constraining factor and probably the only one that is really taken into account.

baud147258 5y ago
> Full scale invasion to defeat Ukrainian government is very unlikely I don't think that Russia would be even interested to take control of the rest of Ukraine, as the current situation seems to fit their goals: they're keeping control over Crimea, so they're keeping their access to the sea there. And with the Donbass situation, Ukraine won't join NATO anytime soon, so they won't see US bases and missiles being installed next to their borders
- mszcz 5y ago
  Still, hope for the best, plan for the worst. You guys got any ideas how to protect your assets (no matter how little), how everything will move on the markets if the shit hits the fan? I mean, sure, we can argue will they, won't they. I just don't want to be caught with my pants down if shit really hits the fan.