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The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with R

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
Too bad Germany blundered by making themselves dependent on Russian gas to survive.
- tpush 5y ago
  Germany is not dependent on Russian gas to survive, Russia's just the cheapest source of it.
  - sam_lowry_ 5y ago
    I guess the OP referred to the exit from nuclear power. This exit was a big mistake. Netherlands are rushing up to build new nuclear plants. Belgium seeks ways to reverse its exit plan. France has never stopped beefing up its nuclear industry. Only Germany is behaving irrationally.
patriagreca 5y ago
Shout-out to a fellow imperialist! Let's oust govs that we don't like yaaay
- bovermyer 5y ago
  I think the implication was that the Russian people should decide to oust Putin, rather than an external sovereign power doing it.
ivan_gammel 5y ago
Russia in EU would mean also Russia in NATO. Russia wanted to join NATO in 1990s and the answer of the alliance was "No". IIRC, one of the reasons behind that was that this means direct border with China. China is more important and there were hopes that China will democratize as it integrates itself into global economy, so that was an unnecessary risk. The times have changed, now everyone talks about containment - having Russia as part of the biggest military and economic alliance in history would mean a lot for it. But this also means including a right wing conservative power with the economy of the similar size to Germany, twice more people, nuclear weapons and ideology similar to the one of Poland or Hungary. Making Putin leave (or waiting until he dies) will not be enough to change this.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  I think Russia in the EU would mean no more NATO. NATO is first and foremost a tool of American power in Europe and against Russia. If the geopolitical landscape changed so much that Russia decided to join the EU and was accepted, I think it would have to mean that the EU/Europe had shifted (back) to standing up on its own. > with the economy of the similar size to Germany Russia's economy is not that big. Nominal GDP is between Spain and Italy.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    >NATO is first and foremost a tool of American power in Europe and against Russia Sure, but that's only because Russian and US foreign policy goals are so opposed. Other than their territorial ambitions in Europe this need not be the case.
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      Not 'only'. That's key. Different countries have different interests. Powerful enough countries can remain independent and pursue them as they see fit. The US want to keep control of Europe, that's partly what NATO is for. There's no reason for Russia to be OK with that. In fact no European country should be OK with that but for historically reasons I think they reckon that this is better than the fear of letting the "good old ways" (i.e. France or Germany trying to take over) come back, although Germany has pretty much taken over by peaceful means at this point, especially since Brexit...
newjersey 5y ago
> The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. I don't actually know anything about Russia or Europe or politics in general first hand. However, from listening to a few episodes of the Economist podcast, my impression has been that Putin is stuck. He can't quit because even though he might be above being punished for his crimes, his cronies who have amassed billions are not. These folks will do everything in their power to keep Putin in power or find someone who is better at diverting people's attention from the problems affecting the people in their regular lives. Chechnya, Crimea, Ukraine, ... all these are (in my understanding) in service of the government's attempt at consolidating power at home. > Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything. What is a super sanction? In my (uninformed) opinion, a sanction is a complete sealing of a nation backed by political will and military might, preferably consensus from all the neighbors of the nation. No person and no goods go into or out of the country. No funds get transferred into the country or out of the country. All communications get cut off. Correct me if I am wrong but Europe (I am speaking geographically, so including Ukraine) relies a lot on Russian petroleum and gas? And even if we weaned ourselves off of everything Russian, there is a border between Russia and China PR (mainland China under control of the CCP). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border tl;dr a sanction not enforced by military might is not really a sanction, it is just a silly little non-binding resolution.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  We’ve been slowly boiling Russia with sanctions for the last decade to the point that they’ve developed & implemented plenty of work-arounds.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    It's especially hard when the EU helps undermine them constantly because they're addicted to Russian gas
    - 5y ago
abcd_f 5y ago
Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine for as long as it’s not in Nato. Just like the US didn’t like Russian military presence on Cuba, they don’t want the US presence in Ukraine. It’s all fundamentally dead simple. Russia views Ukraine as a buffer country between itself and the West and will do anything to keep it that way.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine They should probably stop invading more and more of it over time, then.
  - Nasreddin_Hodja 5y ago
    > They should probably stop invading more and more of it over time, then. They should do it for the sake of security of Europe. Ukraine is not capable of controlling "own" territory.
- MagnumOpus 5y ago
  That's falsified by Russia's ongoing metre-by-metre invasion of Georgia[0]. Not a NATO member, and won't become one either. Still Vova Putin saw some Lebensraum and decided it's his for the taking. [0] https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/humanrights/2019/02/05/russias-new-strategy-in-georgia-creeping-occupation/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/humanrights/2019/02/05/russias-new-s...
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
  > Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine Their actions from 2014 until now show otherwise. Ukraine is not a part of NATO but Putin decided to grab Crimea, Donbas, and keep the military activity for over 5 years in order to destabilize the country.
  - abcd_f 5y ago
    Don’t misquote. Current conflict is rooted exactly in Ukraine trying to aligning itself with the West. It would’ve been the EU first, Nato second for them. That would’ve created a massive headache for Russia, including the loss of its only warm port, hence the annexation and the invasion. And now Ukraine is in limbo, because the EU won’t touch it with a wooden pole while it is in an active conflict.
chalcolithic 5y ago
Installing non-warmonger democrats makes sense for non-warmonger nations only.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
  But is Russia a warmongering nation? I'd say most Russians hate war. Maybe more than anyone else because they were the nation that suffered most casualties in World War II. An emergence of a peaceful leader and friendly reactions with the West would mark the beginning of a completely new era in the history of our civilization. And would help both Russia and the West in the face of increasing Chinese power.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    The individual people probably not, but the politicians at the top seem pretty obviously willing to engage in conflicts. Just think about Crimea for a second - when was the last time you saw a country actually annex territory? That is some old school shit (pardon my french) and a real shock to the IR community. Plus their actions in Georgia on a super flimsy pretext, troops in Moldova, etc. I'd say they're pretty warmongering...
    - nzmsv 5y ago
      Annex territory? Turkey, NATO member, 1974 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus) Your parents were alive during that time, so it's not that old school.
  - javajosh 5y ago
    Well now, this is the question isn't it: what's going on with Russia? They've had a (smarter, more violent) version of Trump in power for 20 years, using violence to repress dissent, using fraud to fake poll numbers, cheated so bad at the Olympics they got a forever ban, and state-run media to broadcast propoganda. For the Russians, communism failed, then capitalism failed, and the national economy is the size of Italy suffering from rampant corruption. So what is it? They are deep in the bad corner of the Nash equilibrium, bitter about losing the Cold War, and determined to achieve some vestige of glory using the two levers that remain to them: nukes and gas? (Plus a 3rd lever: world-class hackers and online propagandists.) I find it hard to imagine that in this environment there's much of a middle-class that cares about the best 3rd wave coffee in Moscow and which is the best Montessori school (e.g. the petty problems that remain once you feel safe in your society). Those Russians left for Germany or the US long ago, is my impression.
treme 5y ago
You sound pretty naïve. Putin holding on to power is likely the best outcome for the world vs unknown power vacuum & chaos that will ensue after Putin's gone.
- danlugo92 5y ago
  A peaceful transition can happen, like when the USSR dissolved. Of course I wouldn't like a power vacuum in a country with nukes.
  - nzmsv 5y ago
    There are a lot of Russians who don't support Putin yet will fight to make sure another one of these peaceful transitions doesn't happen in their home. Rampant crime, addictions, brain drain, internal wars - no thank you, please keep this peaceful transition. I think Egypt was the last place that was gifted one of these. I hear it went well for them /s
mytailorisrich 5y ago
Russia is not in the EU because of fundamental geopolitical differences and diverging interests. Changing the Russian government does not change these aspects. The same goes for China, for instance. It is naive to think that a democratic government in China would fundamentally change anything to the geopolitical situation or China's international policy and goals. The government's leanings may influence the means by which a country pursues its geopolitical interests but do not change those interests. Just observe the US.
- VictorPath 5y ago
  I mean we have an example of that, there was a radical change in the Russian government and nothing changed on either side. Destabilizing Russia or China means the West can grab more from the Russian or Chinese people. Look what the West did in China in the 19th century.
b112 5y ago
And how do you enforce this? Another Cuba, 1960s style stand off?
- danlugo92 5y ago
  Cuba is not cut off from "everything", though their massive media campaign has made it appear so. There's flights from the US to Cuba now. You could say, ban any airline that flights to Russia from flying into EU/US, heck, do it on an airplane basis to avoid shell companies and such. Any airplane that touches Russian soil, banned from ever entering any US/EU airspace/soil ever again.
  - b112 5y ago
    No, I mean the stand off, where Soviet ships in transit to Cuba, were blockaded by US warships, almost starting WWIII. And, with China being blocked off, talk about pushing two allies even closer together. Who needs 'the west'?

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago

Too bad Germany blundered by making themselves dependent on Russian gas to survive.

tpush 5y ago
Germany is not dependent on Russian gas to survive, Russia's just the cheapest source of it.
- sam_lowry_ 5y ago
  I guess the OP referred to the exit from nuclear power. This exit was a big mistake. Netherlands are rushing up to build new nuclear plants. Belgium seeks ways to reverse its exit plan. France has never stopped beefing up its nuclear industry. Only Germany is behaving irrationally.

patriagreca 5y ago

Shout-out to a fellow imperialist! Let's oust govs that we don't like yaaay

bovermyer 5y ago
I think the implication was that the Russian people should decide to oust Putin, rather than an external sovereign power doing it.

ivan_gammel 5y ago

Russia in EU would mean also Russia in NATO. Russia wanted to join NATO in 1990s and the answer of the alliance was "No". IIRC, one of the reasons behind that was that this means direct border with China. China is more important and there were hopes that China will democratize as it integrates itself into global economy, so that was an unnecessary risk. The times have changed, now everyone talks about containment - having Russia as part of the biggest military and economic alliance in history would mean a lot for it. But this also means including a right wing conservative power with the economy of the similar size to Germany, twice more people, nuclear weapons and ideology similar to the one of Poland or Hungary. Making Putin leave (or waiting until he dies) will not be enough to change this.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
I think Russia in the EU would mean no more NATO. NATO is first and foremost a tool of American power in Europe and against Russia. If the geopolitical landscape changed so much that Russia decided to join the EU and was accepted, I think it would have to mean that the EU/Europe had shifted (back) to standing up on its own. > with the economy of the similar size to Germany Russia's economy is not that big. Nominal GDP is between Spain and Italy.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  >NATO is first and foremost a tool of American power in Europe and against Russia Sure, but that's only because Russian and US foreign policy goals are so opposed. Other than their territorial ambitions in Europe this need not be the case.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    Not 'only'. That's key. Different countries have different interests. Powerful enough countries can remain independent and pursue them as they see fit. The US want to keep control of Europe, that's partly what NATO is for. There's no reason for Russia to be OK with that. In fact no European country should be OK with that but for historically reasons I think they reckon that this is better than the fear of letting the "good old ways" (i.e. France or Germany trying to take over) come back, although Germany has pretty much taken over by peaceful means at this point, especially since Brexit...

newjersey 5y ago

> The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. I don't actually know anything about Russia or Europe or politics in general first hand. However, from listening to a few episodes of the Economist podcast, my impression has been that Putin is stuck. He can't quit because even though he might be above being punished for his crimes, his cronies who have amassed billions are not. These folks will do everything in their power to keep Putin in power or find someone who is better at diverting people's attention from the problems affecting the people in their regular lives. Chechnya, Crimea, Ukraine, ... all these are (in my understanding) in service of the government's attempt at consolidating power at home. > Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything. What is a super sanction? In my (uninformed) opinion, a sanction is a complete sealing of a nation backed by political will and military might, preferably consensus from all the neighbors of the nation. No person and no goods go into or out of the country. No funds get transferred into the country or out of the country. All communications get cut off. Correct me if I am wrong but Europe (I am speaking geographically, so including Ukraine) relies a lot on Russian petroleum and gas? And even if we weaned ourselves off of everything Russian, there is a border between Russia and China PR (mainland China under control of the CCP). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border tl;dr a sanction not enforced by military might is not really a sanction, it is just a silly little non-binding resolution.

elliekelly 5y ago
We’ve been slowly boiling Russia with sanctions for the last decade to the point that they’ve developed & implemented plenty of work-arounds.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  It's especially hard when the EU helps undermine them constantly because they're addicted to Russian gas
  - 5y ago

abcd_f 5y ago

Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine for as long as it’s not in Nato. Just like the US didn’t like Russian military presence on Cuba, they don’t want the US presence in Ukraine. It’s all fundamentally dead simple. Russia views Ukraine as a buffer country between itself and the West and will do anything to keep it that way.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine They should probably stop invading more and more of it over time, then.
- Nasreddin_Hodja 5y ago
  > They should probably stop invading more and more of it over time, then. They should do it for the sake of security of Europe. Ukraine is not capable of controlling "own" territory.
MagnumOpus 5y ago
That's falsified by Russia's ongoing metre-by-metre invasion of Georgia[0]. Not a NATO member, and won't become one either. Still Vova Putin saw some Lebensraum and decided it's his for the taking. [0] https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/humanrights/2019/02/05/russias-new-strategy-in-georgia-creeping-occupation/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/humanrights/2019/02/05/russias-new-s...
hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
> Russia doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine Their actions from 2014 until now show otherwise. Ukraine is not a part of NATO but Putin decided to grab Crimea, Donbas, and keep the military activity for over 5 years in order to destabilize the country.
- abcd_f 5y ago
  Don’t misquote. Current conflict is rooted exactly in Ukraine trying to aligning itself with the West. It would’ve been the EU first, Nato second for them. That would’ve created a massive headache for Russia, including the loss of its only warm port, hence the annexation and the invasion. And now Ukraine is in limbo, because the EU won’t touch it with a wooden pole while it is in an active conflict.

chalcolithic 5y ago

Installing non-warmonger democrats makes sense for non-warmonger nations only.

hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
But is Russia a warmongering nation? I'd say most Russians hate war. Maybe more than anyone else because they were the nation that suffered most casualties in World War II. An emergence of a peaceful leader and friendly reactions with the West would mark the beginning of a completely new era in the history of our civilization. And would help both Russia and the West in the face of increasing Chinese power.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  The individual people probably not, but the politicians at the top seem pretty obviously willing to engage in conflicts. Just think about Crimea for a second - when was the last time you saw a country actually annex territory? That is some old school shit (pardon my french) and a real shock to the IR community. Plus their actions in Georgia on a super flimsy pretext, troops in Moldova, etc. I'd say they're pretty warmongering...
  - nzmsv 5y ago
    Annex territory? Turkey, NATO member, 1974 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus) Your parents were alive during that time, so it's not that old school.
- javajosh 5y ago
  Well now, this is the question isn't it: what's going on with Russia? They've had a (smarter, more violent) version of Trump in power for 20 years, using violence to repress dissent, using fraud to fake poll numbers, cheated so bad at the Olympics they got a forever ban, and state-run media to broadcast propoganda. For the Russians, communism failed, then capitalism failed, and the national economy is the size of Italy suffering from rampant corruption. So what is it? They are deep in the bad corner of the Nash equilibrium, bitter about losing the Cold War, and determined to achieve some vestige of glory using the two levers that remain to them: nukes and gas? (Plus a 3rd lever: world-class hackers and online propagandists.) I find it hard to imagine that in this environment there's much of a middle-class that cares about the best 3rd wave coffee in Moscow and which is the best Montessori school (e.g. the petty problems that remain once you feel safe in your society). Those Russians left for Germany or the US long ago, is my impression.

treme 5y ago

You sound pretty naïve. Putin holding on to power is likely the best outcome for the world vs unknown power vacuum & chaos that will ensue after Putin's gone.

danlugo92 5y ago
A peaceful transition can happen, like when the USSR dissolved. Of course I wouldn't like a power vacuum in a country with nukes.
- nzmsv 5y ago
  There are a lot of Russians who don't support Putin yet will fight to make sure another one of these peaceful transitions doesn't happen in their home. Rampant crime, addictions, brain drain, internal wars - no thank you, please keep this peaceful transition. I think Egypt was the last place that was gifted one of these. I hear it went well for them /s

mytailorisrich 5y ago

Russia is not in the EU because of fundamental geopolitical differences and diverging interests. Changing the Russian government does not change these aspects. The same goes for China, for instance. It is naive to think that a democratic government in China would fundamentally change anything to the geopolitical situation or China's international policy and goals. The government's leanings may influence the means by which a country pursues its geopolitical interests but do not change those interests. Just observe the US.

VictorPath 5y ago
I mean we have an example of that, there was a radical change in the Russian government and nothing changed on either side. Destabilizing Russia or China means the West can grab more from the Russian or Chinese people. Look what the West did in China in the 19th century.

b112 5y ago

And how do you enforce this? Another Cuba, 1960s style stand off?

danlugo92 5y ago
Cuba is not cut off from "everything", though their massive media campaign has made it appear so. There's flights from the US to Cuba now. You could say, ban any airline that flights to Russia from flying into EU/US, heck, do it on an airplane basis to avoid shell companies and such. Any airplane that touches Russian soil, banned from ever entering any US/EU airspace/soil ever again.
- b112 5y ago
  No, I mean the stand off, where Soviet ships in transit to Cuba, were blockaded by US warships, almost starting WWIII. And, with China being blocked off, talk about pushing two allies even closer together. Who needs 'the west'?