18 ms·

I think we in the west need something like a 'doctrine of the foregone conclusion'. Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want t

by jmacd 5y ago

I think we in the west need something like a 'doctrine of the foregone conclusion'. Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want to face the eventuality, we do things like negotiate or perseverate our denials all while the situation escalates. If NATO and the west are ready and willing to defend Ukraine (I suspect we are not), in which case a significant increase in our own presence would have made sense much earlier. If we are not willing, then the Ukrainians really should be told that and given an opportunity to negotiate or find their own way. I'm not sure that Cold War style standoffs via obscurity work the way they used to, there is just too much information available. The job is not to hide information or turn a blind eye to it, but rather to create as much or more activity and information as the opposing side.

rich_sasha 5y ago
I suspect Ukraine was told quite clearly what they can expect, and as you say, it comes short of NATO boots on the ground, or wings in the sky. I'd say no one ever really wants to defend an ally, it's more of a pros-and-cons balance. For smaller countries, solidarity within NATO is building goodwill capital for when they need help (e.g. with allies following US into Afghanistan). For large countries, this is part of their empire-building: showing allies you support them makes them more favourably disposed to you. All-around, even for the US, it raises the bar for anyone contemplating an attack on a NATO member. Ukraine is a colleague but not an ally, so these don't really apply as much. That said, the West wants an independent, pro-western Ukraine (just not enough to fight a direct war with Russia over), and seems unusually resolute, so I wouldn't be surprised if some truly punitive actions were to be taken. Exclusion from SWIFT was one proposal, interfering with Russian energy exports would be catastrophic for Russia. The latter is very difficult for Europe in winter, but who knows; the US could open the tap with their gas, also if the whole thing gets delayed by a few months, it could be a very different perspective.
- DoingIsLearning 5y ago
  > The latter is very difficult for Europe in winter The latter is very difficult for Germany in winter. Let's call a spade a spade and stop bundling the EU27 with Germany's energy policy and geo-political failures.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    There's plenty of countries heavily dependent on Russian gas, Germany being one. I get it, from Spain it looks very different, but this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector#Natural_gas_deliveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_... shows how many countries depend on Russian gas. This should have been scary to Europe for at least a decade now, but sadly wasn't.
    - aa-jv 5y ago
      Europeans don't hate Russians as much as Americans do - probably because they've actually got Russians visiting and know that Russia doesn't really represent the threat that the American military-industrial complex needs you to believe is real in order to justify their trillion dollar misadventures and further subjugation of NATO member states into puppetry. In fact, a lot of Europeans would like to see peace made with Russia. A Europe united with Russia would be the one superpower even China could do little to contain ..
      - TheGigaChad 5y ago
        Lol, idiot. The more you know Russians - the more you hate them.
      - eptcyka 5y ago
        Coming from a post-soviet country, Europeans certainly have a diverse opinion of Russia, but most of it is negative. I don't see how peace could be made given their aggressive foreign policy and continued advances on all fronts that are acceptable. They're pushing their propaganda very hard across the border, and are leaning in hard on the russian speaking populations left in post-soviet countries to screw around.
        aa-jv 5y ago
        > I don't see how peace could be made Its certainly not going to be possible for as long as member citizens of Western nations think they have the moral authority to tell Russia what to do .. they really, really don't have that moral authority, especially given the last twenty years of massacring of innocent people that the West continues to sweep under the rug and justify with bleats .. The Russian people know how many innocent human beings are massacred by American war machines every day, even if Americans don't.
thejackgoode 5y ago
I think this information and clarity exists and is private in the countries' domains of external affairs. Publicly there is always a facade that needs to be held. I am sure some smart people can prove that it's very hard or impossible for any reasonably sized society to function with complete transparency.
3pt14159 5y ago
The west will not protect Ukraine for two giant reasons. 1. Russia has gas over Germany. 2. Amassing troops on Russia's boarder without an alliance with Ukraine is politically challenging. 3. America is sick of war and doesn't have a good looking balance sheet. 4. China is the new meta. Taiwan is tough enough. 5. Joining Nato is a process starts with have a certain level of democratic freedom and market economy that Ukraine is in the process of attaining. If we defend them right now, then it undermines the reforms we want them to make before joining. Once they're in, they're our problem. 6. Covid and knock-on effects is still the focus. Doesn't mean I love it, but it's the reality. Personally I'd do things differently, but I don't exactly have presidential intelligence reports now do I?
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  The US will not defend Taiwan. China will shut off exports to the US immediately and then we'll have a worse shortage crisis than we do now.
- baud147258 5y ago
  For joining NATO, isn't there also a requirement on territorial integrity which makes Ukraine joining impossible as long as the Donbass situation persists?
  - mc32 5y ago
    If that’s the case. How did West Germany join NATO given they had no control over the DDR? Looks like you could just declare you have territorial integrity and you’re set, irrespective of reality.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      West Germany and the DDR were two separate countries.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    I haven't heard about it, but sounds plausible. That said, if there was political will, it would probably be fine, or there would be a special clause, or sth. For example, West Germany joined NATO (founding member?), even though clearly the country was divided; West Germany didn't, AFAIK, make format territorial claims on East Germany, but they clearly saw themselves as a legitimate state with an occupied territory.
markx2 5y ago
> Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want to face the eventuality, we do things like negotiate or perseverate our denials all while the situation escalates. There was an opinion piece on 9 Dec in The Daily Telegraph which points out that the West have 3 potential flashpoints: - Russia and Ukraine - China and Taiwan - Iran and their nuclear enrichment The West can only hope that the three foreign countries do not decide to coordinate action. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightmare-war-three-fronts/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightm...
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  I don't see Iran being a flashpoint. Israel is clearly capable of defending itself and we want nothing to do with that godforsaken sandbox. I do see Iran capitalizing on other distractions because they know they get cut no slack on slow news days. Frankly it would probably be for the best if they were nuclear armed because it would keep them and Israel from fighting as much.
enkid 5y ago
Ukraine knows the limits of Western support and is not asking for Western military in Ukraine. What they are asking for is arms sales, training, and economic assistance to deter Russia, which the West is doing, but should continue to step up.
shusaku 5y ago
The west wants to sell military equipment to Ukraine. It’s the same reason Taiwan being in danger is front page news. The cash cow of Afghanistan is gone.
mclightning 5y ago
"foregone conclusion" that's a dignifying way to say "walk the walk, as well as talking the talk", or "put one's money where one's mouth is", or "be consistent", "show of will"
nzmsv 5y ago
Isn't this "doctrine of the foregone conclusion" exactly how the west operates? Not too long ago there was an invasion of Iraq over some WMDs that unnamed "intelligence sources" were absolutely certain were about to be used for some horrible things. These were never found. Now these same "intelligence services" are the only source of information that Russia is preparing for an invasion. If you were Russian, hearing this would make you very scared indeed (and it does).

by jmacd 5y ago

rich_sasha 5y ago

I suspect Ukraine was told quite clearly what they can expect, and as you say, it comes short of NATO boots on the ground, or wings in the sky. I'd say no one ever really wants to defend an ally, it's more of a pros-and-cons balance. For smaller countries, solidarity within NATO is building goodwill capital for when they need help (e.g. with allies following US into Afghanistan). For large countries, this is part of their empire-building: showing allies you support them makes them more favourably disposed to you. All-around, even for the US, it raises the bar for anyone contemplating an attack on a NATO member. Ukraine is a colleague but not an ally, so these don't really apply as much. That said, the West wants an independent, pro-western Ukraine (just not enough to fight a direct war with Russia over), and seems unusually resolute, so I wouldn't be surprised if some truly punitive actions were to be taken. Exclusion from SWIFT was one proposal, interfering with Russian energy exports would be catastrophic for Russia. The latter is very difficult for Europe in winter, but who knows; the US could open the tap with their gas, also if the whole thing gets delayed by a few months, it could be a very different perspective.

DoingIsLearning 5y ago
> The latter is very difficult for Europe in winter The latter is very difficult for Germany in winter. Let's call a spade a spade and stop bundling the EU27 with Germany's energy policy and geo-political failures.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  There's plenty of countries heavily dependent on Russian gas, Germany being one. I get it, from Spain it looks very different, but this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector#Natural_gas_deliveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_... shows how many countries depend on Russian gas. This should have been scary to Europe for at least a decade now, but sadly wasn't.
  - aa-jv 5y ago
    Europeans don't hate Russians as much as Americans do - probably because they've actually got Russians visiting and know that Russia doesn't really represent the threat that the American military-industrial complex needs you to believe is real in order to justify their trillion dollar misadventures and further subjugation of NATO member states into puppetry. In fact, a lot of Europeans would like to see peace made with Russia. A Europe united with Russia would be the one superpower even China could do little to contain ..
    - TheGigaChad 5y ago
      Lol, idiot. The more you know Russians - the more you hate them.
    - eptcyka 5y ago
      Coming from a post-soviet country, Europeans certainly have a diverse opinion of Russia, but most of it is negative. I don't see how peace could be made given their aggressive foreign policy and continued advances on all fronts that are acceptable. They're pushing their propaganda very hard across the border, and are leaning in hard on the russian speaking populations left in post-soviet countries to screw around.
      - aa-jv 5y ago
        > I don't see how peace could be made Its certainly not going to be possible for as long as member citizens of Western nations think they have the moral authority to tell Russia what to do .. they really, really don't have that moral authority, especially given the last twenty years of massacring of innocent people that the West continues to sweep under the rug and justify with bleats .. The Russian people know how many innocent human beings are massacred by American war machines every day, even if Americans don't.

thejackgoode 5y ago

I think this information and clarity exists and is private in the countries' domains of external affairs. Publicly there is always a facade that needs to be held. I am sure some smart people can prove that it's very hard or impossible for any reasonably sized society to function with complete transparency.

3pt14159 5y ago

The west will not protect Ukraine for two giant reasons. 1. Russia has gas over Germany. 2. Amassing troops on Russia's boarder without an alliance with Ukraine is politically challenging. 3. America is sick of war and doesn't have a good looking balance sheet. 4. China is the new meta. Taiwan is tough enough. 5. Joining Nato is a process starts with have a certain level of democratic freedom and market economy that Ukraine is in the process of attaining. If we defend them right now, then it undermines the reforms we want them to make before joining. Once they're in, they're our problem. 6. Covid and knock-on effects is still the focus. Doesn't mean I love it, but it's the reality. Personally I'd do things differently, but I don't exactly have presidential intelligence reports now do I?

MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
The US will not defend Taiwan. China will shut off exports to the US immediately and then we'll have a worse shortage crisis than we do now.
baud147258 5y ago
For joining NATO, isn't there also a requirement on territorial integrity which makes Ukraine joining impossible as long as the Donbass situation persists?
- mc32 5y ago
  If that’s the case. How did West Germany join NATO given they had no control over the DDR? Looks like you could just declare you have territorial integrity and you’re set, irrespective of reality.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    West Germany and the DDR were two separate countries.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  I haven't heard about it, but sounds plausible. That said, if there was political will, it would probably be fine, or there would be a special clause, or sth. For example, West Germany joined NATO (founding member?), even though clearly the country was divided; West Germany didn't, AFAIK, make format territorial claims on East Germany, but they clearly saw themselves as a legitimate state with an occupied territory.

markx2 5y ago

> Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want to face the eventuality, we do things like negotiate or perseverate our denials all while the situation escalates. There was an opinion piece on 9 Dec in The Daily Telegraph which points out that the West have 3 potential flashpoints: - Russia and Ukraine - China and Taiwan - Iran and their nuclear enrichment The West can only hope that the three foreign countries do not decide to coordinate action. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightmare-war-three-fronts/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightm...

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
I don't see Iran being a flashpoint. Israel is clearly capable of defending itself and we want nothing to do with that godforsaken sandbox. I do see Iran capitalizing on other distractions because they know they get cut no slack on slow news days. Frankly it would probably be for the best if they were nuclear armed because it would keep them and Israel from fighting as much.

enkid 5y ago

Ukraine knows the limits of Western support and is not asking for Western military in Ukraine. What they are asking for is arms sales, training, and economic assistance to deter Russia, which the West is doing, but should continue to step up.

shusaku 5y ago

The west wants to sell military equipment to Ukraine. It’s the same reason Taiwan being in danger is front page news. The cash cow of Afghanistan is gone.

mclightning 5y ago

"foregone conclusion" that's a dignifying way to say "walk the walk, as well as talking the talk", or "put one's money where one's mouth is", or "be consistent", "show of will"

nzmsv 5y ago

Isn't this "doctrine of the foregone conclusion" exactly how the west operates? Not too long ago there was an invasion of Iraq over some WMDs that unnamed "intelligence sources" were absolutely certain were about to be used for some horrible things. These were never found. Now these same "intelligence services" are the only source of information that Russia is preparing for an invasion. If you were Russian, hearing this would make you very scared indeed (and it does).