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I think the Darpa Humanoid Robot Challenge illustrates how far humanoid robots are from a reality [1]. Some reasons I'd speculate for this: 1) The human gait,

I think the Darpa Humanoid Robot Challenge illustrates how far humanoid robots are from a reality [1]. Some reasons I'd speculate for this: 1) The human gait, bipedal motion, is based on a maintain a dynamic balance with the ground - fall forward, catch yourself with one leg and use that catch to fall forward again, catching yourself with your other leg. Most robots "Frankestein walk" - keep a static, put out a leg, touch the ground, transfer the weight - this is inelegant, inefficient and often fails. So far, achieving something like this has been extreme computationally intensive. 2) Human interactions with the world depend on using this dynamic balance to accomplish other things. Without mastery dynamic balance, a two-legged device is inherent precarious and inept. 3) The value of a humanoid robot is in being able to be a drop-in replacement for a human, in a limited capacity. But the problem of robot-human interactions isn't really solved for either self-driving cars or wheeled robots navigating hospitals. 4) Human "hardware" is extraordinarily sensitive, robust and versatile. Vast improvements in robots would be needed to compete. And then you have the software problem. [1] https://www.popsci.com/darpa-robotics-challenge-was-bust-why-darpa-needs-try-again/ https://www.popsci.com/darpa-robotics-challenge-was-bust-why...

liuliu 5y ago
2015 is long time ago, hence the purpose of the article. From my research, I think at least 3 things changed: 1. We are getting much better at sensing the environment and construct realistic representations of these, mostly due to the advances in deep learning and interests in augmented reality. Best of all, many of these solutions are open-source; 2. Comparing to the onboard computations available today, I won't call dynamic walking a "computational expensive" task any more. We have Jetson AGX Xavier, which can do teraflops of floating-point computation; 3. We are better at battery and electric actuators. I think that today's humanoid, even made by universities, can probably perform much better in the same Darpa challenge with reasonable budget (1m or so).
- TaylorAlexander 5y ago
  And if it's Tesla we're talking about, they have extremely powerful custom AI chips already in production in their vehicles, more powerful than AGX Xavier (I have one of those!). Tesla also has what is in my opinion a very good AI system (Dojo) for training machines designed to operate in the real world. I think it could work for a humanoid. And I pointed out in a neighbor comment but both Boston Dynamics and Agility Robotics use dynamic walks, not static walking. I agree they would do much better on the Darpa challenge too. This video from Agility shows some tasks similar to the Darpa challenge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY Tesla is IMO in a good position to do something with humanoids especially if they buy Agility Robotics and slap their AI system into it. We know they can do the manufacturing and Musk does love to buy companies for their tech.
TaylorAlexander 5y ago
I agree with the neighbor comment, 2015 was a long time ago. See the state of the art today: Agility Robotics Digit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY Boston Dynamics Atlas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk Neither of those robots use a static walk. That is obvious enough in the above Boston Dynamics video, but Agility Robotics also just released a little video explaining their (very robust) dynamic walking system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpxrnrR_Tsg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpxrnrR_Tsg It seems clear the basic hardware to do humanoid walking is technologically achievable today. Personally I would think Tesla would be better suited by copying or buying Agility Robotics as Digit is a smaller robot and it looks cheaper than Atlas too. Better for working in a warehouse alongside people as shown in the top video link in this post, and they seem a smaller company than BD and so cheaper to buy. Musk is very happy to buy firms that produce tech his companies need. As far as the software problem, it is a big one to be sure. I don't think they have all the pieces to the puzzle, but I do think Tesla's Dojo AI system has promise for training a machine like a humanoid. Their system is designed to ingest experience and produce neural nets which can navigate in the real world. They may be willing to take a bet, despite the clear risks, on using this system for humanoids. If they buy Agility Robotics, rev the design to add their AI system (which is extremely powerful AI hardware with their own custom processor), they could be in production on prototypes within a year. This all has the disclaimer that success is still very hard and not guaranteed, but then that's the kind of thing Musk loves to throw resources at. Also: I do not work for any companies in this field. I am making a farming robot (see profile).

liuliu 5y ago

2015 is long time ago, hence the purpose of the article. From my research, I think at least 3 things changed: 1. We are getting much better at sensing the environment and construct realistic representations of these, mostly due to the advances in deep learning and interests in augmented reality. Best of all, many of these solutions are open-source; 2. Comparing to the onboard computations available today, I won't call dynamic walking a "computational expensive" task any more. We have Jetson AGX Xavier, which can do teraflops of floating-point computation; 3. We are better at battery and electric actuators. I think that today's humanoid, even made by universities, can probably perform much better in the same Darpa challenge with reasonable budget (1m or so).

TaylorAlexander 5y ago
And if it's Tesla we're talking about, they have extremely powerful custom AI chips already in production in their vehicles, more powerful than AGX Xavier (I have one of those!). Tesla also has what is in my opinion a very good AI system (Dojo) for training machines designed to operate in the real world. I think it could work for a humanoid. And I pointed out in a neighbor comment but both Boston Dynamics and Agility Robotics use dynamic walks, not static walking. I agree they would do much better on the Darpa challenge too. This video from Agility shows some tasks similar to the Darpa challenge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY Tesla is IMO in a good position to do something with humanoids especially if they buy Agility Robotics and slap their AI system into it. We know they can do the manufacturing and Musk does love to buy companies for their tech.

TaylorAlexander 5y ago

I agree with the neighbor comment, 2015 was a long time ago. See the state of the art today: Agility Robotics Digit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jycdks836bY Boston Dynamics Atlas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk Neither of those robots use a static walk. That is obvious enough in the above Boston Dynamics video, but Agility Robotics also just released a little video explaining their (very robust) dynamic walking system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpxrnrR_Tsg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpxrnrR_Tsg It seems clear the basic hardware to do humanoid walking is technologically achievable today. Personally I would think Tesla would be better suited by copying or buying Agility Robotics as Digit is a smaller robot and it looks cheaper than Atlas too. Better for working in a warehouse alongside people as shown in the top video link in this post, and they seem a smaller company than BD and so cheaper to buy. Musk is very happy to buy firms that produce tech his companies need. As far as the software problem, it is a big one to be sure. I don't think they have all the pieces to the puzzle, but I do think Tesla's Dojo AI system has promise for training a machine like a humanoid. Their system is designed to ingest experience and produce neural nets which can navigate in the real world. They may be willing to take a bet, despite the clear risks, on using this system for humanoids. If they buy Agility Robotics, rev the design to add their AI system (which is extremely powerful AI hardware with their own custom processor), they could be in production on prototypes within a year. This all has the disclaimer that success is still very hard and not guaranteed, but then that's the kind of thing Musk loves to throw resources at. Also: I do not work for any companies in this field. I am making a farming robot (see profile).