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I tend to think the abstinence rate would be much lower than with the vaccine. Cancer scares people in a way that COVID doesn't. Many of the anti-vaxxers do n

I tend to think the abstinence rate would be much lower than with the vaccine. Cancer scares people in a way that COVID doesn't. Many of the anti-vaxxers do not perceive COVID as a credible risk, so they let their contrarian/anti-authoritarian/"don't tell me what to do" instincts kick in, because none of it actually matters to them in their mind. When faced with a form of cancer that has a <10% survival rate they will shut up and take the mRNA treatment in a heartbeat.

hackinthebochs 5y ago
The operative word being treatment rather than prophylaxis.
hncurious 5y ago
I agree. It'd be the same with Covid too if the risk was high. Ultimately the reason so many don't want a Covid vaccine is because the risk of hospitalization is only 1.6% and is well below 1% if you're young and otherwise healthy. Or if you already had Covid and have natural immunity you're about as protected as the vaccinated (<1% chance of hospitalization). If the risk of hospitalization or death was 10%? 30%? Almost everyone would want the vaccine except the real hardcore anti-vaxxers. You wouldn't have to mandate or otherwise coerce people to take something if the threat was that credible generally. Few resist the smallpox vaccine, for example.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  The threat is very credible. Just as the misinformation and bullshit campaign is very powerful. To the point where even a credible threat isn't enough to get people to act in their own best interest. With odds approaching 1:400 across the whole population of death and substantially higher of a serious bout of disease it is quite amazing how many people continue to downplay this because of the age factor. If the odds were that good for the lottery I'd be playing.
  - hncurious 5y ago
    The fear campaign is very powerful too. People radically overestimate the risk. A large % of the population overestimates it by 48.4%! "For unvaccinated hospitalization risk, 2% of Democrats responded correctly, compared with 16% of Republicans. In fact, 41% of Democrats replied that at least 50% of unvaccinated people have been hospitalized due to COVID-19." https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimat... But yes, on the other side of it, if a 60 year old obese person isn't taking the vaccine, they're misinformed too. Their risk benefit analysis is off.
    - geekbird 5y ago
      The problem is that many people who think that they are 'healthy' without comorbidities that make covid worse are, quite frankly, deluded. "Nearly 40% of American adults aged 20 and over are obese. 71.6% of adults aged 20 and over are overweight, including obesity." (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2017-2018; Harvard School of Public Health, 2020). So 71.6% of American adults are at elevated risk for severe Covid. Because even just being overweight increases your risk of hospitalization if you get it. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm So IF the unvaccinated have the same demographic profile as general US adults, then 71.6% have an elevated risk of hospitalization if they catch Covid because they are overweight and unvaccinated. You will notice that there is no political affiliation in that conclusion. Also, risk is not actuality, and levels of comorbidities vary from person to person, so population risks and personal risks are different. Now, as to how many have actually had covid and been hospitalized I will admit that there is a perception difference based on political affiliation. But for that data, I will respect the actual statistics, not my perception based on displayed attitudes. Basically, the problem is that a lot of adults think that they aren't fat, or don't know they have high cholesterol, etc. and are declining the vaccine because they are 'healthy'. https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/238272/coronavirus-updates/list-covid-19-high-risk-comorbidities-expanded https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/238272/c...
peddling-brink 5y ago
Exactly. There's a big difference between, "take this jab, then the scary news thing won't get you" and "you're dying. You can die, or take this jab."
raxxorrax 5y ago
An analysis about people reactions to threats would be as devastating and probably even induces such skepticism.

hackinthebochs 5y ago

The operative word being treatment rather than prophylaxis.

hncurious 5y ago

I agree. It'd be the same with Covid too if the risk was high. Ultimately the reason so many don't want a Covid vaccine is because the risk of hospitalization is only 1.6% and is well below 1% if you're young and otherwise healthy. Or if you already had Covid and have natural immunity you're about as protected as the vaccinated (<1% chance of hospitalization). If the risk of hospitalization or death was 10%? 30%? Almost everyone would want the vaccine except the real hardcore anti-vaxxers. You wouldn't have to mandate or otherwise coerce people to take something if the threat was that credible generally. Few resist the smallpox vaccine, for example.

jacquesm 5y ago
The threat is very credible. Just as the misinformation and bullshit campaign is very powerful. To the point where even a credible threat isn't enough to get people to act in their own best interest. With odds approaching 1:400 across the whole population of death and substantially higher of a serious bout of disease it is quite amazing how many people continue to downplay this because of the age factor. If the odds were that good for the lottery I'd be playing.
- hncurious 5y ago
  The fear campaign is very powerful too. People radically overestimate the risk. A large % of the population overestimates it by 48.4%! "For unvaccinated hospitalization risk, 2% of Democrats responded correctly, compared with 16% of Republicans. In fact, 41% of Democrats replied that at least 50% of unvaccinated people have been hospitalized due to COVID-19." https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimat... But yes, on the other side of it, if a 60 year old obese person isn't taking the vaccine, they're misinformed too. Their risk benefit analysis is off.
  - geekbird 5y ago
    The problem is that many people who think that they are 'healthy' without comorbidities that make covid worse are, quite frankly, deluded. "Nearly 40% of American adults aged 20 and over are obese. 71.6% of adults aged 20 and over are overweight, including obesity." (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2017-2018; Harvard School of Public Health, 2020). So 71.6% of American adults are at elevated risk for severe Covid. Because even just being overweight increases your risk of hospitalization if you get it. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm So IF the unvaccinated have the same demographic profile as general US adults, then 71.6% have an elevated risk of hospitalization if they catch Covid because they are overweight and unvaccinated. You will notice that there is no political affiliation in that conclusion. Also, risk is not actuality, and levels of comorbidities vary from person to person, so population risks and personal risks are different. Now, as to how many have actually had covid and been hospitalized I will admit that there is a perception difference based on political affiliation. But for that data, I will respect the actual statistics, not my perception based on displayed attitudes. Basically, the problem is that a lot of adults think that they aren't fat, or don't know they have high cholesterol, etc. and are declining the vaccine because they are 'healthy'. https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/238272/coronavirus-updates/list-covid-19-high-risk-comorbidities-expanded https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/238272/c...

peddling-brink 5y ago

Exactly. There's a big difference between, "take this jab, then the scary news thing won't get you" and "you're dying. You can die, or take this jab."

raxxorrax 5y ago

An analysis about people reactions to threats would be as devastating and probably even induces such skepticism.