5 ms·

seems like Covid might end up having a WWII like impact on some technologies. Tons of accelerated R&D triggered by a massive crisis. Would be nice if we could s

seems like Covid might end up having a WWII like impact on some technologies. Tons of accelerated R&D triggered by a massive crisis. Would be nice if we could salvage something good out of a bad situation

FredPret 5y ago
We usually do! Hunger, sabre-tooth tigers, malaria, war: everything seems to make civilization stronger in the end
- yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
  The very definition of survivorship bias :)
  - wongarsu 5y ago
    What doesn't kill your civilization makes it stronger (or cripples it enough that it slowly fades into irrelevance, with nobody agreeing on the exact cause)
    - marcosdumay 5y ago
      Solving problems makes your civilization stronger. Letting them around while you learn to cope makes it weaker. Nobody agrees on the exact cause because when one is weak enough to fade into irrelevance, there are way too many of those unsolved problems.
      - FredPret 5y ago
        I meant civilization as a giant entity that comprises all of us. There is no “your” civilization. The whole grows steadily stronger and more complex, though the constituent ideologies and individuals fight, grow, and die.
  - FredPret 5y ago
    Reality has a survivorship bias. That’s the idea of Nietzsche’s Will to Power.
  - newsbinator 5y ago
    Some version of the anthropic principle? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
- musicale 5y ago
  IIRC the 14th century was particularly disastrous with both the great famine and the black death wiping out something like 40% and 30% of the population of Europe. In the 17th century the thirty years' war (and associated famines and outbreaks) was similarly devastating. The survivors had more wealth however.
tonmoy 5y ago
The mRNA research was already very well underway before the pandemic. In fact the COVID vaccines were low hanging fruit.
- xiphias2 5y ago
  Why are you so sure about that? From what I saw in last year’s Moderna presentation on R&D day they ramped up vaccines for other infections _because_ it worked so well for COVID, but they were focusing more on therapeutics before, as they thought there’s more money in it and less in preventing infections with vaccines.
- malermeister 5y ago
  I would imagine there's a lot more capital going around in that industry now though :)
  - mikepurvis 5y ago
    Capital and also just straight up mindshare. How many people would have had any idea what mRNA was two years ago? Now it's a kitchen table thing, everyone's seen a dozen explainers on what the basic idea is and how it works. It's firmly associated with new technology, agility, and highly effective vaccination.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Unfortunately, it is also at times oversold and this will do a lot of damage. Vaccines are regularly hyped as miracle medication which in turn causes people to stop following lots of other common sense rules, rather than as one arrow in a whole quiver of tools.
      - mikepurvis 5y ago
        Oh definitely, and there's for sure also the likelihood of the name being hijacked for other technologies that are only peripherally related. See also the zillions of cheapo air purifiers prominently branded to contain "HEPA type" filtration.
cblconfederate 5y ago
So you are saying that one way to solve a problem quick is to create a pandemic around it ... hmm I think the most important takeaway from the pandemic is that accelerated phase 2/3 trials will become the norm
- onychomys 5y ago
  It should probably be noted here that for the mRNA vaccines, the only reason that the trials seemed accelerated is that they were able to find so many infected participants, and so were able to reach their stated endpoints more quickly.
  - xiphias2 5y ago
    I’m not so sure about that. People worked all day and night and through weekends, were much more flexible with streaming data instead of getting it in one big package after it all arrived. I’m extremely thankful for all people who took part in letting me seeing my parents again without masks.
- ksd482 5y ago
  I don’t think that’s what he/she is saying. How did you infer that? What he’s/she’s saying is how to make the best out of a crisis after the fact.
- vlovich123 5y ago
  My understanding is that the only reason this worked for mRNA is that it was basically already at the end point of the development cycle of figuring out which disease to apply it to. It was just waiting for patients to demonstrate efficacy and safety. COVID-19 provided that opportunity. This is not a repeatable model for other new technologies though. Now that mRNA safety has been proven out, the hurdles to applying it to other things are drastically reduced (as they would have been once the first mRNA drug got approved). Similarly, having a ready population pool and an urgent need is not likely to come up again although maybe mRNA drugs in general have a safety profile that might warrant giving them to patients who have no other alternative.
throwawaymanbot 5y ago
Spot on!!

FredPret 5y ago

We usually do! Hunger, sabre-tooth tigers, malaria, war: everything seems to make civilization stronger in the end

yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
The very definition of survivorship bias :)
- wongarsu 5y ago
  What doesn't kill your civilization makes it stronger (or cripples it enough that it slowly fades into irrelevance, with nobody agreeing on the exact cause)
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    Solving problems makes your civilization stronger. Letting them around while you learn to cope makes it weaker. Nobody agrees on the exact cause because when one is weak enough to fade into irrelevance, there are way too many of those unsolved problems.
    - FredPret 5y ago
      I meant civilization as a giant entity that comprises all of us. There is no “your” civilization. The whole grows steadily stronger and more complex, though the constituent ideologies and individuals fight, grow, and die.
- FredPret 5y ago
  Reality has a survivorship bias. That’s the idea of Nietzsche’s Will to Power.
- newsbinator 5y ago
  Some version of the anthropic principle? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
musicale 5y ago
IIRC the 14th century was particularly disastrous with both the great famine and the black death wiping out something like 40% and 30% of the population of Europe. In the 17th century the thirty years' war (and associated famines and outbreaks) was similarly devastating. The survivors had more wealth however.

tonmoy 5y ago

The mRNA research was already very well underway before the pandemic. In fact the COVID vaccines were low hanging fruit.

xiphias2 5y ago
Why are you so sure about that? From what I saw in last year’s Moderna presentation on R&D day they ramped up vaccines for other infections _because_ it worked so well for COVID, but they were focusing more on therapeutics before, as they thought there’s more money in it and less in preventing infections with vaccines.
malermeister 5y ago
I would imagine there's a lot more capital going around in that industry now though :)
- mikepurvis 5y ago
  Capital and also just straight up mindshare. How many people would have had any idea what mRNA was two years ago? Now it's a kitchen table thing, everyone's seen a dozen explainers on what the basic idea is and how it works. It's firmly associated with new technology, agility, and highly effective vaccination.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Unfortunately, it is also at times oversold and this will do a lot of damage. Vaccines are regularly hyped as miracle medication which in turn causes people to stop following lots of other common sense rules, rather than as one arrow in a whole quiver of tools.
    - mikepurvis 5y ago
      Oh definitely, and there's for sure also the likelihood of the name being hijacked for other technologies that are only peripherally related. See also the zillions of cheapo air purifiers prominently branded to contain "HEPA type" filtration.

cblconfederate 5y ago

So you are saying that one way to solve a problem quick is to create a pandemic around it ... hmm I think the most important takeaway from the pandemic is that accelerated phase 2/3 trials will become the norm

onychomys 5y ago
It should probably be noted here that for the mRNA vaccines, the only reason that the trials seemed accelerated is that they were able to find so many infected participants, and so were able to reach their stated endpoints more quickly.
- xiphias2 5y ago
  I’m not so sure about that. People worked all day and night and through weekends, were much more flexible with streaming data instead of getting it in one big package after it all arrived. I’m extremely thankful for all people who took part in letting me seeing my parents again without masks.
ksd482 5y ago
I don’t think that’s what he/she is saying. How did you infer that? What he’s/she’s saying is how to make the best out of a crisis after the fact.
vlovich123 5y ago
My understanding is that the only reason this worked for mRNA is that it was basically already at the end point of the development cycle of figuring out which disease to apply it to. It was just waiting for patients to demonstrate efficacy and safety. COVID-19 provided that opportunity. This is not a repeatable model for other new technologies though. Now that mRNA safety has been proven out, the hurdles to applying it to other things are drastically reduced (as they would have been once the first mRNA drug got approved). Similarly, having a ready population pool and an urgent need is not likely to come up again although maybe mRNA drugs in general have a safety profile that might warrant giving them to patients who have no other alternative.

throwawaymanbot 5y ago

Spot on!!