6 ms·

Australia has been reporting 1 in 10000 rate for myocarditis in 11-17 year olds and is ramping up their campaign to get more high school kids vaccinated. Table

by jaidan 5y ago

Australia has been reporting 1 in 10000 rate for myocarditis in 11-17 year olds and is ramping up their campaign to get more high school kids vaccinated. Table 2: https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-09-12-2021 https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safe... The article linked in another reply (https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-over-moderna-for-people-18-to-24-effective-immediately-1.5605370 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-recommends-pfizer-covid-1...) for Canada suggested they stopped the Moderna Vaccines at a rate of 1 in 28000. I wonder, what rates determine when action is taken?

amelius 5y ago
When the rates become higher than for the virus itself.
- teekert 5y ago
  Ideally yes. But keep in mind that many effect (both of the virus and the vaccines) are still not taken into account. Doing that would mean this exact point would move almost constantly, which would be good imho, but I can imagine this does not fly in general.
eloff 5y ago
Keep in mind the covid-19 has a myocarditis rate of 1 in 25000 according to this same study. 4x higher than with the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine - and that's not counting all the other risks that come with a covid infection - including death.
- MarcoZavala 5y ago
- jcbrand 5y ago
  1 in 10000 isn't much less than 1 in 25000. Also, with the booster regime being implemented, you're going to regularly be taking that risk, whereas people rarely (according to Peter McCullough "never") get reinfected with Covid. People also die from the vaccine. There are 18000 reported deaths from the vaccine in VAERs. Just recently a 12 year old schoolgirl in Cuxhaven, Germany died from the vaccine.
- napier 5y ago
  Undeniable ratio of benefit albeit one that doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs.
  - GameOfFrowns 5y ago
    >doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs. Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit.
    - croes 5y ago
      >Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit. Quite the opposite. The study in South Africa showed a 70% protection against hospitalisation from Omicron, the level is even higher for Delta.
    - scotty79 5y ago
      Please check the charts at the last lage of this document https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v... It seems that three doses can drop down your risk of infection below what being previously infected with covid, or even being infected and then vaccinated with two doses can provide. I think we made a great mistake by not making this vaccine 3 doses from the start.
- HuwytNashi083 5y ago
  That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death. Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'. Also that one may reasonably expect to commit to many vaccinations. Australia, where I am, has already financially committed to more than 9 per capita - if they're buying them, I expect they expect to be using them. That's a lot of rolls of the dice.
  - consp 5y ago
    > which may be very low Looking at the sewage data around here, your low is about 100% as well. There is no place in my country without any exposure so it's just a matter of time.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    Covid-19 has higher rates of death than vaccines too. It’s also highly transmissible. The probability of exposure is very high unless someone is isolating themselves from society entirely.
  - eloff 5y ago
    > That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death. All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher [edit s/than/with] with the virus according to the data, which is excellent now that there are over 6.3 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide. > Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'. Covid is not going anywhere. Over time the probability of being exposed to it approaches 1. The only question is do you want to be vaccinated when that happens?
    - funcDropShadow 5y ago
      > All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher than the virus according to the data I assume you mean lower.
- a_imho 5y ago
  How is 1:25000 4x higher than 1:10000? Isn't it 2.5x less likely? I guess the parent is referring to this piece of data: 8-12 cases per 100,000 doses.
  - ricardobeat 5y ago
    The 1:10000 number is reported by Australia, for young men only, during the first 7 days, characterized as higher than the average. The 1:25000 number is from the study on the general population.
    - a_imho 5y ago
      Indeed and the context is vaccination for high school kids. I mean, if they are observing some outliers maybe that should be investigated first rather than brushed aside?
  - eloff 5y ago
    The 1:10000 number is not from this study. The highest number in this study was 1:100,000.
- Aerroon 5y ago
  >On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine Is it though? I may not be infected by covid and not be subjected to the risk, but if I get the vaccine then I'm definitely subjecting myself to the risk. x * (1/25000) vs 1.0 * (1/100000) If the probability of catching covid (x) is less than 25% then the risk of myocarditis would be greater from the vaccine, no? Edit: what happens when you get the vaccine and then get covid? Do the current figures include that?
  - gjulianm 5y ago
    Given that COVID seems to be on the path to be endemic, you should consider X to be close to 100%.
    - roenxi 5y ago
      Given the booster programs currently being recommended in Australia, it is entirely possible that I will be getting 3x vaccine doses before being exposed to COVID. 25% chance of getting myocarditis would make the risk comparable to normal COVID for me. And that is assuming the vaccine is highly effective. There do seem to be questions about that, given the ongoing mutation and variants. I'd still rather get vaccinated, but I do question whether people are being obstinate about seriously discussing the pro- and con- on this topic.
  - croes 5y ago
    It's a little bit more complicated. The severity of the mycarditis from the vaccines and corona differ.
  - funcDropShadow 5y ago
    It is true that you might not get Covid-19 any time soon. But depending on where you live the chances might be quite high in the next months. At least that is the conclusion I draw for myself, living in Germany, considering the likely immunity evading behavior of the omicron variant, its growth rate in other countries, and the unwillingness of a lot of people to follow simple hygiene rules and social distancing.
  - 5y ago
- antocv 5y ago
  What is the death rate from COVID-19 for those younger than 40 and healthy that is with no underlying health issues such as immunodeficiency or diabetes? Seriously asking, its like the modern web has thrown such a question into a kakfaesque hole.
  - funcDropShadow 5y ago
    That depends on many factors. To answer this question you have to consider at least the country you are leaving in. It also depends on your environment and the timing, e.g. when hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases, they might discharge a younger person to early from the hospital or don't look deep enough. If you want to answer this question for your country look at the official government numbers, I assume the CDC has those numbers for the US, the RKI publishes these numbers for Germany, etc. A generic Google search will find the most attention seeking site claiming stuff mildly related to your question.
    - antocv 5y ago
      CDC equivalent does not publish the numbers of deaths without health-issues, we only see total deaths per age group. Below 40, the official stats say 43 males have died of which are 6 boys below 19 years old. The population is about 10 million. What if those dead had underlying genetic diseases or diabetes or hypertension?
  - ImaCake 5y ago
    My attempt at googling this produces an abundance of answers. They are not the best answers, but they do give some good indications. Here is an ABS article that appears in second place on DuckDuckGo Aust [0]. If you want really solid numbers I suggest you look for research papers. Here is one based on Melbourne’s first wave which we have basically complete information on [1]. In conclusion, its not particularly hard to find this data with a few searches on your favourite search engine. 0. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 1. https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-021-01314-w https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...
- uyunte 5y ago
  > you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine I hate this kind of advice. It is like nutritional advice. "eat less omega 6", etc. None of it applies to any one person. What if I don't interact with humans and live on an island? What if I am a certain age, etc.
  - j2bax 5y ago
    If you live on an island in complete isolation chances are you wouldn’t care too much about general recommendations intended for the majority.
  - eloff 5y ago
    I'd say you're missing the forest for the trees. You'd be hard pressed to come up with a realistic scenario where I would advise you that your odds are indeed better without the vaccine.
- hammon 5y ago
  True, but if I remember well 95% of covid cases are asymptomatic depending on the age...

by jaidan 5y ago

amelius 5y ago

When the rates become higher than for the virus itself.

teekert 5y ago
Ideally yes. But keep in mind that many effect (both of the virus and the vaccines) are still not taken into account. Doing that would mean this exact point would move almost constantly, which would be good imho, but I can imagine this does not fly in general.

eloff 5y ago

Keep in mind the covid-19 has a myocarditis rate of 1 in 25000 according to this same study. 4x higher than with the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine - and that's not counting all the other risks that come with a covid infection - including death.

MarcoZavala 5y ago
jcbrand 5y ago
1 in 10000 isn't much less than 1 in 25000. Also, with the booster regime being implemented, you're going to regularly be taking that risk, whereas people rarely (according to Peter McCullough "never") get reinfected with Covid. People also die from the vaccine. There are 18000 reported deaths from the vaccine in VAERs. Just recently a 12 year old schoolgirl in Cuxhaven, Germany died from the vaccine.
napier 5y ago
Undeniable ratio of benefit albeit one that doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs.
- GameOfFrowns 5y ago
  >doesn’t necessarily bode well for the six monthly booster subscription necessary in absence of airborne transmission interrupting NPIs. Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit.
  - croes 5y ago
    >Especially considering that the current booster shots are proven to be quite ineffective against the Delta and even less against the current Omicron mutation. Seemingly all of the risk, with none of the benefit. Quite the opposite. The study in South Africa showed a 70% protection against hospitalisation from Omicron, the level is even higher for Delta.
  - scotty79 5y ago
    Please check the charts at the last lage of this document https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v... It seems that three doses can drop down your risk of infection below what being previously infected with covid, or even being infected and then vaccinated with two doses can provide. I think we made a great mistake by not making this vaccine 3 doses from the start.
HuwytNashi083 5y ago
That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death. Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'. Also that one may reasonably expect to commit to many vaccinations. Australia, where I am, has already financially committed to more than 9 per capita - if they're buying them, I expect they expect to be using them. That's a lot of rolls of the dice.
- consp 5y ago
  > which may be very low Looking at the sewage data around here, your low is about 100% as well. There is no place in my country without any exposure so it's just a matter of time.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  Covid-19 has higher rates of death than vaccines too. It’s also highly transmissible. The probability of exposure is very high unless someone is isolating themselves from society entirely.
- eloff 5y ago
  > That's also not counting all the other risks that come with vaccination - including death. All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher [edit s/than/with] with the virus according to the data, which is excellent now that there are over 6.3 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide. > Also that individuals have variable probability of exposure to and infection with the virus, which may be very low, while vaccination carries a 100% 'probability'. Covid is not going anywhere. Over time the probability of being exposed to it approaches 1. The only question is do you want to be vaccinated when that happens?
  - funcDropShadow 5y ago
    > All of which are one or more orders of magnitude higher than the virus according to the data I assume you mean lower.
a_imho 5y ago
How is 1:25000 4x higher than 1:10000? Isn't it 2.5x less likely? I guess the parent is referring to this piece of data: 8-12 cases per 100,000 doses.
- ricardobeat 5y ago
  The 1:10000 number is reported by Australia, for young men only, during the first 7 days, characterized as higher than the average. The 1:25000 number is from the study on the general population.
  - a_imho 5y ago
    Indeed and the context is vaccination for high school kids. I mean, if they are observing some outliers maybe that should be investigated first rather than brushed aside?
- eloff 5y ago
  The 1:10000 number is not from this study. The highest number in this study was 1:100,000.
Aerroon 5y ago
>On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine Is it though? I may not be infected by covid and not be subjected to the risk, but if I get the vaccine then I'm definitely subjecting myself to the risk. x * (1/25000) vs 1.0 * (1/100000) If the probability of catching covid (x) is less than 25% then the risk of myocarditis would be greater from the vaccine, no? Edit: what happens when you get the vaccine and then get covid? Do the current figures include that?
- gjulianm 5y ago
  Given that COVID seems to be on the path to be endemic, you should consider X to be close to 100%.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    Given the booster programs currently being recommended in Australia, it is entirely possible that I will be getting 3x vaccine doses before being exposed to COVID. 25% chance of getting myocarditis would make the risk comparable to normal COVID for me. And that is assuming the vaccine is highly effective. There do seem to be questions about that, given the ongoing mutation and variants. I'd still rather get vaccinated, but I do question whether people are being obstinate about seriously discussing the pro- and con- on this topic.
- croes 5y ago
  It's a little bit more complicated. The severity of the mycarditis from the vaccines and corona differ.
- funcDropShadow 5y ago
  It is true that you might not get Covid-19 any time soon. But depending on where you live the chances might be quite high in the next months. At least that is the conclusion I draw for myself, living in Germany, considering the likely immunity evading behavior of the omicron variant, its growth rate in other countries, and the unwillingness of a lot of people to follow simple hygiene rules and social distancing.
- 5y ago
antocv 5y ago
What is the death rate from COVID-19 for those younger than 40 and healthy that is with no underlying health issues such as immunodeficiency or diabetes? Seriously asking, its like the modern web has thrown such a question into a kakfaesque hole.
- funcDropShadow 5y ago
  That depends on many factors. To answer this question you have to consider at least the country you are leaving in. It also depends on your environment and the timing, e.g. when hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid cases, they might discharge a younger person to early from the hospital or don't look deep enough. If you want to answer this question for your country look at the official government numbers, I assume the CDC has those numbers for the US, the RKI publishes these numbers for Germany, etc. A generic Google search will find the most attention seeking site claiming stuff mildly related to your question.
  - antocv 5y ago
    CDC equivalent does not publish the numbers of deaths without health-issues, we only see total deaths per age group. Below 40, the official stats say 43 males have died of which are 6 boys below 19 years old. The population is about 10 million. What if those dead had underlying genetic diseases or diabetes or hypertension?
- ImaCake 5y ago
  My attempt at googling this produces an abundance of answers. They are not the best answers, but they do give some good indications. Here is an ABS article that appears in second place on DuckDuckGo Aust [0]. If you want really solid numbers I suggest you look for research papers. Here is one based on Melbourne’s first wave which we have basically complete information on [1]. In conclusion, its not particularly hard to find this data with a few searches on your favourite search engine. 0. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1 1. https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-021-01314-w https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...
uyunte 5y ago
> you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine I hate this kind of advice. It is like nutritional advice. "eat less omega 6", etc. None of it applies to any one person. What if I don't interact with humans and live on an island? What if I am a certain age, etc.
- j2bax 5y ago
  If you live on an island in complete isolation chances are you wouldn’t care too much about general recommendations intended for the majority.
- eloff 5y ago
  I'd say you're missing the forest for the trees. You'd be hard pressed to come up with a realistic scenario where I would advise you that your odds are indeed better without the vaccine.
hammon 5y ago
True, but if I remember well 95% of covid cases are asymptomatic depending on the age...