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> It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal rese

> It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? We still wiped it out. Smallpox, Measles, Polio. We've wiped out diseases before, and we can do it again if we so try. I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases and are so pessimistic about this subject...

thaumasiotes 5y ago
> You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? It seems unlikely that many cows caught smallpox, given the prevalence of cowpox. Cowpox is a different disease, and was the first vaccine, after which the very concept of "vaccination" is named. Milkmaids had long been known for their immunity to smallpox. If smallpox had been in cows, milkmaids would have been known for universal smallpox exposure instead. > I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases Not a good look.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > Cowpox is a different disease That conferred immunity to smallpox. Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. Sure, that's fair. > In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox. Huh? No, it isn't.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Fine. UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        Rabies only has animal reservoirs, it isn't spread person-to-person. And it appears that the localities that have eradicated rabies have done so by dropping animal baits with oral vaccines. So... small, mostly deforested island countries may have a good chance against animal-borne viruses that have inexpensive edible vaccines. The wealthiest country in the world hasn't managed to eradicate rabies. Covid isn't going to end this way.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        Leprosy. There's a lot of diseases we've eradicated. Surely something will come along that you don't have an excuse for.
        stickfigure 5y ago
        Do you believe that covid continues because of excuses or weak wills or something psychological? Or that all "diseases" are equivalent? Perhaps I should read more into your confounding of cowpox with smallpox. Leprosy is bacterial and treated with antibiotics. Same with bubonic plague, if that was next on your list.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        > Do you believe that covid continues because of excuses or weak wills or something psychological? I believe COVID19 continues because we have a ~60% vaccination rate in the USA, which is far below the needed vaccination rate to slow down the spread of the disease. A lot of these other diseases brought up have substantial 95%+ vaccination rates, or treatments that can hamper the spread. No disease is equivalent to another. Smallpox and Measles had much higher spread R0 / replication rates. Others are bacterial. Cholera is water-borne and solved with other methodologies.
  - makomk 5y ago
    Cowpox produced strong enough immunity to smallpox that a vaccine likely derived from it completely wiped smallpox off the planet, but it's very much not the same disease - cowpox doesn't spread effectively in humans and is much less deadly. There's just really good cross-immunity between the two that made vaccination possible using 18th-century technology and understanding of science, even though their last common ancestor seems to be way back in prehistory.
firmnoodle 5y ago
Agreed. But I don't hear anyone talking about making a old style COVID vaccine that prevents infection, disease or transmission. That's what's different in this case. We don't currently have what we many of us used to think of as a vaccine.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  The vaccines are 90% effective against the original strain and Alpha to transmission / infection. Efficacy dropped to 60% vs Delta, and drops again to 30% vs Omicron. Boosters seem to rise back up to 90% vs Delta and 75% vs Omicron. That's why so many people are talking about boosters: it has a measurable impact on transmission for Omicron (and Delta).
- rsfern 5y ago
  We are lucky we have vaccines at all; it was never a sure thing. Also, IIRC Sinovac’s Coronavirus vaccine is an “old style” inactivated virus vaccine, and the J&J one is an adenovirus vector vaccine. They are not as effective as the mRNA vaccines.
SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
Those diseases could be (mostly) eradicated because they have incredibly effective vaccines - the CDC quotes 95% for smallpox, 97% for measles, 99-100% for polio. No currently known Covid vaccine is that effective and there's no obvious reason to expect future ones will be.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Its all relative. Measles is 3x more infectious than even Delta. Current vaccines are 95% effective against the original strain, 60% vs Delta, unknown vs Omicron. You boost the vaccine however, and you're back to 90% efficacy vs Delta, and like 75% vs Omicron.
  - SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
    The difference isn't as minor as I think you're suggesting. Compared to 95% efficacy, 90% efficacy means twice as many vaccinated people get sick and 75% efficacy means five times as many get sick. I don't see how eradication programs would work with such a differential, and (relatedly) I don't know of any experts who think it's feasible to eradicate Covid with current technology.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      > I don't see how eradication programs would work with such a differential Its all about R0. If the efficacy (and compliance) is above the 1 / R0 rate, then eradication is possible. As its "efficacy times compliance", the number we wish to maximize is the smaller number. Efficacy may have dropped to 60% (double shot vs Delta), but a 3rd booster brings the efficacy back up to 90%. Compliance however, is stuck around 60% in the USA in general, and a large number of people are refusing to get the booster. As such, compliance is the number we need to work on right now. -------- Going from 90% to 99% vaccine efficacy barely does anything, because our vaccine compliance numbers are so damn low.
stickfigure 5y ago
Measles is making a strong comeback. It's a bit early to declare victory.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Largely in antivax communities though. It's not a problem in any area with high vaccine compliance.

thaumasiotes 5y ago

> You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? It seems unlikely that many cows caught smallpox, given the prevalence of cowpox. Cowpox is a different disease, and was the first vaccine, after which the very concept of "vaccination" is named. Milkmaids had long been known for their immunity to smallpox. If smallpox had been in cows, milkmaids would have been known for universal smallpox exposure instead. > I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases Not a good look.

dragontamer 5y ago
> Cowpox is a different disease That conferred immunity to smallpox. Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. Sure, that's fair. > In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox. Huh? No, it isn't.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Fine. UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      Rabies only has animal reservoirs, it isn't spread person-to-person. And it appears that the localities that have eradicated rabies have done so by dropping animal baits with oral vaccines. So... small, mostly deforested island countries may have a good chance against animal-borne viruses that have inexpensive edible vaccines. The wealthiest country in the world hasn't managed to eradicate rabies. Covid isn't going to end this way.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Leprosy. There's a lot of diseases we've eradicated. Surely something will come along that you don't have an excuse for.
        stickfigure 5y ago
        Do you believe that covid continues because of excuses or weak wills or something psychological? Or that all "diseases" are equivalent? Perhaps I should read more into your confounding of cowpox with smallpox. Leprosy is bacterial and treated with antibiotics. Same with bubonic plague, if that was next on your list.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        > Do you believe that covid continues because of excuses or weak wills or something psychological? I believe COVID19 continues because we have a ~60% vaccination rate in the USA, which is far below the needed vaccination rate to slow down the spread of the disease. A lot of these other diseases brought up have substantial 95%+ vaccination rates, or treatments that can hamper the spread. No disease is equivalent to another. Smallpox and Measles had much higher spread R0 / replication rates. Others are bacterial. Cholera is water-borne and solved with other methodologies.
- makomk 5y ago
  Cowpox produced strong enough immunity to smallpox that a vaccine likely derived from it completely wiped smallpox off the planet, but it's very much not the same disease - cowpox doesn't spread effectively in humans and is much less deadly. There's just really good cross-immunity between the two that made vaccination possible using 18th-century technology and understanding of science, even though their last common ancestor seems to be way back in prehistory.

firmnoodle 5y ago

Agreed. But I don't hear anyone talking about making a old style COVID vaccine that prevents infection, disease or transmission. That's what's different in this case. We don't currently have what we many of us used to think of as a vaccine.

dragontamer 5y ago
The vaccines are 90% effective against the original strain and Alpha to transmission / infection. Efficacy dropped to 60% vs Delta, and drops again to 30% vs Omicron. Boosters seem to rise back up to 90% vs Delta and 75% vs Omicron. That's why so many people are talking about boosters: it has a measurable impact on transmission for Omicron (and Delta).
rsfern 5y ago
We are lucky we have vaccines at all; it was never a sure thing. Also, IIRC Sinovac’s Coronavirus vaccine is an “old style” inactivated virus vaccine, and the J&J one is an adenovirus vector vaccine. They are not as effective as the mRNA vaccines.

SpicyLemonZest 5y ago

Those diseases could be (mostly) eradicated because they have incredibly effective vaccines - the CDC quotes 95% for smallpox, 97% for measles, 99-100% for polio. No currently known Covid vaccine is that effective and there's no obvious reason to expect future ones will be.

dragontamer 5y ago
Its all relative. Measles is 3x more infectious than even Delta. Current vaccines are 95% effective against the original strain, 60% vs Delta, unknown vs Omicron. You boost the vaccine however, and you're back to 90% efficacy vs Delta, and like 75% vs Omicron.
- SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
  The difference isn't as minor as I think you're suggesting. Compared to 95% efficacy, 90% efficacy means twice as many vaccinated people get sick and 75% efficacy means five times as many get sick. I don't see how eradication programs would work with such a differential, and (relatedly) I don't know of any experts who think it's feasible to eradicate Covid with current technology.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > I don't see how eradication programs would work with such a differential Its all about R0. If the efficacy (and compliance) is above the 1 / R0 rate, then eradication is possible. As its "efficacy times compliance", the number we wish to maximize is the smaller number. Efficacy may have dropped to 60% (double shot vs Delta), but a 3rd booster brings the efficacy back up to 90%. Compliance however, is stuck around 60% in the USA in general, and a large number of people are refusing to get the booster. As such, compliance is the number we need to work on right now. -------- Going from 90% to 99% vaccine efficacy barely does anything, because our vaccine compliance numbers are so damn low.

stickfigure 5y ago

Measles is making a strong comeback. It's a bit early to declare victory.

dragontamer 5y ago
Largely in antivax communities though. It's not a problem in any area with high vaccine compliance.