4 ms·

It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reserv

It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly. It will happen eventually, and then covid will be just another common cold.

ASinclair 5y ago
> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly What selection pressure exists to make it less-deadly? It takes weeks for the virus to kill people and they are most infectious early on.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  The same selection pressure that applies to every other disease. Symptoms make you less likely to spread. Fatalities make you much less likely to spread. Most of the diseases you carry are completely asymptomatic. This is why island populations all get sick when a ship comes in.
  - thedorkknight 5y ago
    Don't most covid deaths happen after you're no longer infectious? I thought a lot of that was from the cytokine storm. But to the other commenter's point, if omicron DID get a more deadly variant that kills you after you've already infected other people due to presymptomatic spread, then why would that variant be likely to die out? It's already reproduced before killing the host
    - Barrin92 5y ago
      it's overall less likely to reproduce because we take measures against covid collectively. What spreads more unhindered, covid or the common cold? A disease that spreads before it's symptomatic may not face negative selection pressure for some individuals, but on the aggregate people wear masks, avoid contact, even entered lockdowns, are more likely to obtain vaccination, and so on. There's a stronger behavioral response to a more deadly covid than there is to one that is entirely harmless. It's not just death that reduces rates of transmission, and it's not just sick or symptomatic people who avoid contact.
dragontamer 5y ago
> It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? We still wiped it out. Smallpox, Measles, Polio. We've wiped out diseases before, and we can do it again if we so try. I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases and are so pessimistic about this subject...
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? It seems unlikely that many cows caught smallpox, given the prevalence of cowpox. Cowpox is a different disease, and was the first vaccine, after which the very concept of "vaccination" is named. Milkmaids had long been known for their immunity to smallpox. If smallpox had been in cows, milkmaids would have been known for universal smallpox exposure instead. > I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases Not a good look.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > Cowpox is a different disease That conferred immunity to smallpox. Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
    - thaumasiotes 5y ago
      > Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. Sure, that's fair. > In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox. Huh? No, it isn't.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Fine. UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?
tehjoker 5y ago
selection pressure is for increasing reproduction. covid spreads before it kills. unless we get radically depopulated this pressure is nonexistant
jcadam 5y ago
> selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly If left alone, yes. We are not leaving it alone.
heavyset_go 5y ago
> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly The selection pressure that sometimes selects for weaker viral variants is stronger viral variants killing their hosts in droves, thus preventing the stronger variants from passing on their genetics to new hosts. That selection pressure doesn't exist, because people are not dropping like flies due to COVID. The virus is free to mutate into something stronger because there is little pressure to stop it.

ASinclair 5y ago

> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly What selection pressure exists to make it less-deadly? It takes weeks for the virus to kill people and they are most infectious early on.

thaumasiotes 5y ago
The same selection pressure that applies to every other disease. Symptoms make you less likely to spread. Fatalities make you much less likely to spread. Most of the diseases you carry are completely asymptomatic. This is why island populations all get sick when a ship comes in.
- thedorkknight 5y ago
  Don't most covid deaths happen after you're no longer infectious? I thought a lot of that was from the cytokine storm. But to the other commenter's point, if omicron DID get a more deadly variant that kills you after you've already infected other people due to presymptomatic spread, then why would that variant be likely to die out? It's already reproduced before killing the host
  - Barrin92 5y ago
    it's overall less likely to reproduce because we take measures against covid collectively. What spreads more unhindered, covid or the common cold? A disease that spreads before it's symptomatic may not face negative selection pressure for some individuals, but on the aggregate people wear masks, avoid contact, even entered lockdowns, are more likely to obtain vaccination, and so on. There's a stronger behavioral response to a more deadly covid than there is to one that is entirely harmless. It's not just death that reduces rates of transmission, and it's not just sick or symptomatic people who avoid contact.

dragontamer 5y ago

> It is the only endgame. The covid virus is not going away. Even if everyone on the planet suddenly got vaccinated simultaneously, the virus has an animal reservoir. You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? We still wiped it out. Smallpox, Measles, Polio. We've wiped out diseases before, and we can do it again if we so try. I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases and are so pessimistic about this subject...

thaumasiotes 5y ago
> You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? It seems unlikely that many cows caught smallpox, given the prevalence of cowpox. Cowpox is a different disease, and was the first vaccine, after which the very concept of "vaccination" is named. Milkmaids had long been known for their immunity to smallpox. If smallpox had been in cows, milkmaids would have been known for universal smallpox exposure instead. > I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases Not a good look.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  > Cowpox is a different disease That conferred immunity to smallpox. Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19. Sure, that's fair. > In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox. Huh? No, it isn't.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Fine. UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?

tehjoker 5y ago

selection pressure is for increasing reproduction. covid spreads before it kills. unless we get radically depopulated this pressure is nonexistant

jcadam 5y ago

> selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly If left alone, yes. We are not leaving it alone.

heavyset_go 5y ago

> Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly The selection pressure that sometimes selects for weaker viral variants is stronger viral variants killing their hosts in droves, thus preventing the stronger variants from passing on their genetics to new hosts. That selection pressure doesn't exist, because people are not dropping like flies due to COVID. The virus is free to mutate into something stronger because there is little pressure to stop it.