6 ms·

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up that we'll get a new wave of a new variant that's [more transmissible more virulent] and will kill 10x more people than alpha through omicron will. That's a probability and not a certainty, but life is probabilistic and our risk level just went up a lot.

marpstar 5y ago
It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long, and COVID is clearly not driving us to extinction.
- panarky 5y ago
  Is it optimism to settle for any outcome that's better than extinction?
- jodrellblank 5y ago
  Are you arguing the equivalent of "something increasing the chance of another world war is not a concern, because previous world wars clearly didn't drive humans to extinction"?
- adventured 5y ago
  > It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long It's not a miracle or anything close to that level of implied bafflement (devoid of being able to explain it rationally). We're excellent survivors overall, and a lot more than that. We're very skilled at resource utilization, we're relatively talented at conceptual thinking, we're competent tool builders on a planet ripe for it, we possess the ability to plan far ahead and understand consequences numerous steps out, we have memory capabilities that are quite effective across most of our lifetimes, most of our species is not particularly violent and is generally good natured & friendly (only a very small fraction of the population will ever commit serious acts of violence), we function quite well together in groups/tribes/cities/nations (compounded, shared outcomes), and so on. It's not particularly complicated, despite the doomsayers that will never stop existing amongst us (their mentality says more about them than it does the human race).
- dham 5y ago
  If the world wasn't so fat and it was 50 years ago, COVID probably would have been nothing, or the Hong Kong Flu.
  - Sargos 5y ago
    The Spanish Flu was over a hundred years ago and hit the world the same way Covid did even though there was no McDonald's or obesity epidemic back then.
    - dham 5y ago
      Yes but Spanish Flu was really really bad. Affected everyone. Covid is not the Spanish Flu or even the Flu. The flu kills children and is indiscriminate. 80% of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are related to weight. We should have prioritized health and Vitamin D in April 2020. At that time it was clear it was mainly affecting overweight people. Of course even almost 2 years later people still don't think that as a whole. They say comorbidities. Just say it like it is... it's mostly fat people. The news and society won't say that.
      - wbsss4412 5y ago
        80% of hospitalizations and death globally or in the US specifically? Globally that is one thing, but if that data point is in the US, then the baseline population is something like 60-70% overweight/obese to begin with. In which case, that elevation from baseline isn’t as significant as implied.
      - ethbr0 5y ago
        There was a world war distracting resources.
        jessaustin 5y ago
        WWI actually caused the epidemic. The first cases appeared in Kansas, and many doughboys were infected at Fort Riley before carrying the illness to Europe. Woodrow Wilson, who lied about staying out of the war until the day after his reelection, may have been the USA president who harmed the world the most.
rajin444 5y ago
How do you reconcile this with the human race existing for so long? I guess you could make the argument global travel has changed things, but I’m not sure.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  I mean, we can strive for more than just existence. The Black Death didn't wipe us out, but that doesn't mean it was fun to undergo.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- lisper 5y ago
  > How do you reconcile this with the human race existing for so long? For a disease to make us go extinct it would have to be highly transmissible and have a fatality rate of close to 100%. Anything less than that, and evolution will produce a generation of humans that are resistant to (or otherwise able to protect themselves from) the disease, and from there the population will replenish itself. The great plague had a fatality rate of 30% and it didn't even come close to threatening our existence as a specie. (In fact, the resulting redistribution of wealth arguably contributed to the advent of the renaissance.)
newbamboo 5y ago
This. When omicron and delta mate and produce offspring, we’re going to be screwed. Deltas virulence + omicron transceptability = the Great Wave of summer 2022. It will be a good year for Pfizer investors and Russia.
- ineedasername 5y ago
  When omicron and delta mate and produce offspring While there can be recombinations of some similar viruses, that's not the common way that viruses propagate, and it's not mating. Point mutations are much more common. And if they do recombine there's no reason to (automatically) expect that the results will be the worst characteristics of both.
mikenew 5y ago
Covid can't just mutate to become more and more transmissible off to infinity. The likelihood of a new variant being able to out compete Omicron is lower than a variant that can out compete Delta. There's also selection pressure towards milder disease, because someone with milder disease is more likely to be out in the world spreading it than they are to be quarantined at home. The probability of a more transmissible, more virulent strain just went down, not up. It certainly isn't zero, but "more transmissible less virulent" is exactly how viruses tend to evolve. Mutations are a dice roll and it there's no way to be sure of anything, but being a little optimistic is completely appropriate.
- panarky 5y ago
  > selection pressure How does selection pressure work when the disease is spread by people with no symptoms?

marpstar 5y ago

It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long, and COVID is clearly not driving us to extinction.

panarky 5y ago
Is it optimism to settle for any outcome that's better than extinction?
jodrellblank 5y ago
Are you arguing the equivalent of "something increasing the chance of another world war is not a concern, because previous world wars clearly didn't drive humans to extinction"?
adventured 5y ago
> It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long It's not a miracle or anything close to that level of implied bafflement (devoid of being able to explain it rationally). We're excellent survivors overall, and a lot more than that. We're very skilled at resource utilization, we're relatively talented at conceptual thinking, we're competent tool builders on a planet ripe for it, we possess the ability to plan far ahead and understand consequences numerous steps out, we have memory capabilities that are quite effective across most of our lifetimes, most of our species is not particularly violent and is generally good natured & friendly (only a very small fraction of the population will ever commit serious acts of violence), we function quite well together in groups/tribes/cities/nations (compounded, shared outcomes), and so on. It's not particularly complicated, despite the doomsayers that will never stop existing amongst us (their mentality says more about them than it does the human race).
dham 5y ago
If the world wasn't so fat and it was 50 years ago, COVID probably would have been nothing, or the Hong Kong Flu.
- Sargos 5y ago
  The Spanish Flu was over a hundred years ago and hit the world the same way Covid did even though there was no McDonald's or obesity epidemic back then.
  - dham 5y ago
    Yes but Spanish Flu was really really bad. Affected everyone. Covid is not the Spanish Flu or even the Flu. The flu kills children and is indiscriminate. 80% of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are related to weight. We should have prioritized health and Vitamin D in April 2020. At that time it was clear it was mainly affecting overweight people. Of course even almost 2 years later people still don't think that as a whole. They say comorbidities. Just say it like it is... it's mostly fat people. The news and society won't say that.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      80% of hospitalizations and death globally or in the US specifically? Globally that is one thing, but if that data point is in the US, then the baseline population is something like 60-70% overweight/obese to begin with. In which case, that elevation from baseline isn’t as significant as implied.
    - ethbr0 5y ago
      There was a world war distracting resources.
      - jessaustin 5y ago
        WWI actually caused the epidemic. The first cases appeared in Kansas, and many doughboys were infected at Fort Riley before carrying the illness to Europe. Woodrow Wilson, who lied about staying out of the war until the day after his reelection, may have been the USA president who harmed the world the most.

rajin444 5y ago

How do you reconcile this with the human race existing for so long? I guess you could make the argument global travel has changed things, but I’m not sure.

ceejayoz 5y ago
I mean, we can strive for more than just existence. The Black Death didn't wipe us out, but that doesn't mean it was fun to undergo.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
lisper 5y ago
> How do you reconcile this with the human race existing for so long? For a disease to make us go extinct it would have to be highly transmissible and have a fatality rate of close to 100%. Anything less than that, and evolution will produce a generation of humans that are resistant to (or otherwise able to protect themselves from) the disease, and from there the population will replenish itself. The great plague had a fatality rate of 30% and it didn't even come close to threatening our existence as a specie. (In fact, the resulting redistribution of wealth arguably contributed to the advent of the renaissance.)

newbamboo 5y ago

This. When omicron and delta mate and produce offspring, we’re going to be screwed. Deltas virulence + omicron transceptability = the Great Wave of summer 2022. It will be a good year for Pfizer investors and Russia.

ineedasername 5y ago
When omicron and delta mate and produce offspring While there can be recombinations of some similar viruses, that's not the common way that viruses propagate, and it's not mating. Point mutations are much more common. And if they do recombine there's no reason to (automatically) expect that the results will be the worst characteristics of both.

mikenew 5y ago

Covid can't just mutate to become more and more transmissible off to infinity. The likelihood of a new variant being able to out compete Omicron is lower than a variant that can out compete Delta. There's also selection pressure towards milder disease, because someone with milder disease is more likely to be out in the world spreading it than they are to be quarantined at home. The probability of a more transmissible, more virulent strain just went down, not up. It certainly isn't zero, but "more transmissible less virulent" is exactly how viruses tend to evolve. Mutations are a dice roll and it there's no way to be sure of anything, but being a little optimistic is completely appropriate.

panarky 5y ago
> selection pressure How does selection pressure work when the disease is spread by people with no symptoms?