4 ms·

Ask HN: What might the world look like 100 years from now?

16 points by acqbu 5y ago

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throwaway888abc 5y ago
https://mars.nasa.gov/multimedia/images/ https://mars.nasa.gov/multimedia/images/
- thanatos519 5y ago
  No! Venus by Tuesday!
mikewarot 5y ago
If things go well, it will look much like it does today, except energy production won't be dumping a ton of methane and CO2 into the atmosphere. The value of centralization of physical resources will fall with a resurgence of rail for transportation, combined with even smaller containers for local deliveries. If things don't go well, it will look much like it does today, in the rich parts of the world that are still habitable. The mass migration due to climate change won't be kind to most people, and billions will have starved to death. Or, nuclear war happened, or Covid kept going, and civilization collapsed, like it has so many times before. Unfortunately this time, we've used up the irreplaceable (even on geologic time scales) coal and other fossil fuel deposits, so we would be out of the running, forever, as a multi-planet species. Most people have quite foolish notions about the stability of civilization, even I know I'm an optimist.
- nwah1 5y ago
  Fossil fuels help industrial civilization, but I don't think it is the only option. We can produce fuels from organic matter. We can draw on hydro, wind, and solar energy. Even without advanced processes. Maybe industrial development would be slowed, but I don't think fossil fuels are essential.
  - mikewarot 5y ago
    Everyone hit a brick wall once they ran out of wood close enough to chop and make charcoal out of for iron production. It was coking coal that started off the industrial revolution. Once coal was being mined, it was possible for Newcomen to build his horribly inefficient steam engine. It was many years later Watt improved his model of the engine, but even then it proved impractical until the precision boring of Wilkinson made it possible to seal a steam engine piston against the precision bored cylinder he made. So, you need a huge surplus of fuel, plus time, plus the invention of precision all to happen as preconditions for a steam engine that works anywhere other than at the top of a coal mine.
  - muzani 5y ago
    I remember someone saying that oil will either be too expensive or too cheap. From recent events, it seems like too cheap is the most likely outcome. Nuclear is also picking up fast. The remaining major user of fossil fuel is transportation, and the world has already adopted legislation and other processes to deprecate gas cars. I don't think planes or ships will switch to wind power any time soon though.
- rapjr9 5y ago
  >Unfortunately this time, we've used up the irreplaceable (even on geologic time scales) coal and other fossil fuel deposits, so we would be out of the running, forever, as a multi-planet species. I would take this further. In the past we've been able to kick problems down the road. Many of the problems we now face are actively manifesting and delaying response to them is not going to help, it will just make them worse, faster, now. So long standing problems that have been mostly ignored, can no longer be ignored. We'll either step up and actually fix them, or much will be destroyed. We no longer have a choice to wait. So look at those issues where it is obvious that a response can not be delayed. Those are the areas where either solutions will shape the future, or the destruction that accompanies ignoring them will manifest and shape the future. Some examples might be: obesity, climate crisis, pollution, insect decline, animal decline, decline in the variety of species, ocean acidification, financialization, misuse of commons, invasive pests, superbugs, the current pandemic, and decline in the quality of food. I'm sure you can think of more. Then extrapolate to the futures where we fix a few specific problems, we fix all the problems, we fix most of the problems, we fix none of the problems. Then you'll have a range of likely futures. That tells you how to work towards specific futures or by tracking current trends to predict which futures are most likely. This ignores new innovations of course because you can't easily predict them long term (though short term some things like technology advances are somewhat predictable.) So there will always be wild cards. Another large factor is what people think because what people think is what creates shared reality. This is like trying to predict fads, it mostly can't be done. So it represents another source of wild cards. #MeToo is an example of such a shift. There are some trends here though; there seems to have been a historical trend for populations to become more liberal over time. It doesn't happen fast but it seems to be true everywhere. Fifty years ago China embracing capitalism was unimaginable. People admitting they were gay publicly was not happening. So assuming a slow trend towards liberalism may be predictive. For example, marriage may decline and who you have sex with versus who you share your living quarters with may diverge over the next 100 years. Another example is if you assume the internet still connects most people in the world in 100 years (and even more people gain internet access with time) then that will likely have a homogenizing effect, blending cultures and reducing xenophobia.
Jensson 5y ago
If we go by history, the best guess is "roughly the same as now". The past 100 years weren't like that but that was an atypical period. But some predictions along those lines: - computers stopped getting exponentially faster. - people spend a lot of time in front of screens. - people still die. - energy is as plentiful/scarce as today, just that it is green. - rich people have a lot, the poor scrapes by. - cars drive themselves, but a landmark case where a kid got kidnapped by a car and died of heatstroke lead to laws prohibiting self driving cars to drive without a person sitting in it with a self driving car licence. The exception are corporate cars making deliveries, but that doesn't change much from today.
- muzani 5y ago
  "people still die" Life expectancy was mid 30s in 1900. So extrapolating from this, humans could live to 200. Life didn't really get much better for the old though. Some people are sharp at 60. Some people are only living because they're hooked to all kinds of machines. "energy is as plentiful/scarce as today, just that it is green." Fusion breakthroughs have been coming in, which should drastically change things. There's also the newer more efficient nuclear reactors that Bill Gates has been trying to get into production. I expect energy to go up an order of magnitude within the next 30 years in both cleanliness and quantity. "rich people have a lot, the poor scrapes by." This has been the natural state of things for nearly all of human history. But economists are flagging inequality as a really important problem to solve, not necessarily because it's moral, but because it leads to political instability. We had an anomaly around the 60s though. Maybe it was trying to look good against the commies. Economists argue it could be tax and union policies. Whatever it is, it matter enough politically, that I believe we'll hit a 30 year phase of equality within the next century.
vimy 5y ago
Humanity will have achieved immortality. Dying / Aging will be considered a curable disease. This will have all kinds of societal consequences. Both positive and negative.
rapjr9 5y ago
I take some guidance from this quote from the movie "The Man Who Fell To Earth": "This is 20th century America and we're going to keep it that way" The powerful will resist change that threatens their power. So change will only come via paths the powerful do not control. So look at everything that is not centralized and expect change to start to manifest there. Look at everything centralized and expect it to stay the same. Apply grains of salt as necessary since any generalization will always be imperfect. It's one way to think about long term change though.
timonoko 5y ago
Try to explain the current world to someone from 100 years ago. There are just too many alien concepts. "We all have these small picture plates in our pockets and they are all connected to each other via wireless telegram. And they are connected to libraries too -- you can read any book or newspaper and see any movie on that plate. You need no money as the plate is connected to a bank. You need no house keys, because the door can take orders via telegram." "We can send telegrams to a great big wall and others can browse and read those announcements from anywhere. They are organized so that you can have public discussions on variety of subjects". "Our biggest problem now is that there are too many libraries. Anybody can write a newspaper or book and put it into library. We do not know anymore what is true or false. Official Libraries of Truth are known to have mostly lies." "In the next 100 years we have even bigger problem. More and more people do not live in the real world. They have such devices that they can believe they are living in a made-up story or dream. It is like a drug, they cannot do any work. If you wake them, they can go insane. Soon we have to just let them sleep all the time in large dormitories and storage rooms."
- trinovantes 5y ago
  In the 1920s, airplanes and cars already exist but were not widely used. The other civilization-changing inventions in the last 100 years were probably microprocessor and the internet in the 60s and 70s. Maybe some fringe tech today will be widely used in 2120. It's also possible some tech that hasn't been invented will overtake the world in just a few short years. Of course there were also two world wars in the last 100 years so who knows what will happen.
timonoko 5y ago
Post-Millenials discuss about Distant Future: "Fossil Fuel & Covid". AKA "Mental Myobia"
Jerrrry 5y ago
Shamelessly plugging (professor) Isaac Arthur's brilliant Youtube Channel. Haven't seen anyone else make the most realistic compilation of humanities next 100, 1e6, and 2**4**4 years from now. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g
charlieyu1 5y ago
A boring dystopia. We all thought the world was getting better during 1990s

16 points by acqbu 5y ago

...

throwaway888abc 5y ago

https://mars.nasa.gov/multimedia/images/ https://mars.nasa.gov/multimedia/images/

thanatos519 5y ago
No! Venus by Tuesday!

mikewarot 5y ago

If things go well, it will look much like it does today, except energy production won't be dumping a ton of methane and CO2 into the atmosphere. The value of centralization of physical resources will fall with a resurgence of rail for transportation, combined with even smaller containers for local deliveries. If things don't go well, it will look much like it does today, in the rich parts of the world that are still habitable. The mass migration due to climate change won't be kind to most people, and billions will have starved to death. Or, nuclear war happened, or Covid kept going, and civilization collapsed, like it has so many times before. Unfortunately this time, we've used up the irreplaceable (even on geologic time scales) coal and other fossil fuel deposits, so we would be out of the running, forever, as a multi-planet species. Most people have quite foolish notions about the stability of civilization, even I know I'm an optimist.

nwah1 5y ago
Fossil fuels help industrial civilization, but I don't think it is the only option. We can produce fuels from organic matter. We can draw on hydro, wind, and solar energy. Even without advanced processes. Maybe industrial development would be slowed, but I don't think fossil fuels are essential.
- mikewarot 5y ago
  Everyone hit a brick wall once they ran out of wood close enough to chop and make charcoal out of for iron production. It was coking coal that started off the industrial revolution. Once coal was being mined, it was possible for Newcomen to build his horribly inefficient steam engine. It was many years later Watt improved his model of the engine, but even then it proved impractical until the precision boring of Wilkinson made it possible to seal a steam engine piston against the precision bored cylinder he made. So, you need a huge surplus of fuel, plus time, plus the invention of precision all to happen as preconditions for a steam engine that works anywhere other than at the top of a coal mine.
- muzani 5y ago
  I remember someone saying that oil will either be too expensive or too cheap. From recent events, it seems like too cheap is the most likely outcome. Nuclear is also picking up fast. The remaining major user of fossil fuel is transportation, and the world has already adopted legislation and other processes to deprecate gas cars. I don't think planes or ships will switch to wind power any time soon though.
rapjr9 5y ago
>Unfortunately this time, we've used up the irreplaceable (even on geologic time scales) coal and other fossil fuel deposits, so we would be out of the running, forever, as a multi-planet species. I would take this further. In the past we've been able to kick problems down the road. Many of the problems we now face are actively manifesting and delaying response to them is not going to help, it will just make them worse, faster, now. So long standing problems that have been mostly ignored, can no longer be ignored. We'll either step up and actually fix them, or much will be destroyed. We no longer have a choice to wait. So look at those issues where it is obvious that a response can not be delayed. Those are the areas where either solutions will shape the future, or the destruction that accompanies ignoring them will manifest and shape the future. Some examples might be: obesity, climate crisis, pollution, insect decline, animal decline, decline in the variety of species, ocean acidification, financialization, misuse of commons, invasive pests, superbugs, the current pandemic, and decline in the quality of food. I'm sure you can think of more. Then extrapolate to the futures where we fix a few specific problems, we fix all the problems, we fix most of the problems, we fix none of the problems. Then you'll have a range of likely futures. That tells you how to work towards specific futures or by tracking current trends to predict which futures are most likely. This ignores new innovations of course because you can't easily predict them long term (though short term some things like technology advances are somewhat predictable.) So there will always be wild cards. Another large factor is what people think because what people think is what creates shared reality. This is like trying to predict fads, it mostly can't be done. So it represents another source of wild cards. #MeToo is an example of such a shift. There are some trends here though; there seems to have been a historical trend for populations to become more liberal over time. It doesn't happen fast but it seems to be true everywhere. Fifty years ago China embracing capitalism was unimaginable. People admitting they were gay publicly was not happening. So assuming a slow trend towards liberalism may be predictive. For example, marriage may decline and who you have sex with versus who you share your living quarters with may diverge over the next 100 years. Another example is if you assume the internet still connects most people in the world in 100 years (and even more people gain internet access with time) then that will likely have a homogenizing effect, blending cultures and reducing xenophobia.

Jensson 5y ago

If we go by history, the best guess is "roughly the same as now". The past 100 years weren't like that but that was an atypical period. But some predictions along those lines: - computers stopped getting exponentially faster. - people spend a lot of time in front of screens. - people still die. - energy is as plentiful/scarce as today, just that it is green. - rich people have a lot, the poor scrapes by. - cars drive themselves, but a landmark case where a kid got kidnapped by a car and died of heatstroke lead to laws prohibiting self driving cars to drive without a person sitting in it with a self driving car licence. The exception are corporate cars making deliveries, but that doesn't change much from today.

muzani 5y ago
"people still die" Life expectancy was mid 30s in 1900. So extrapolating from this, humans could live to 200. Life didn't really get much better for the old though. Some people are sharp at 60. Some people are only living because they're hooked to all kinds of machines. "energy is as plentiful/scarce as today, just that it is green." Fusion breakthroughs have been coming in, which should drastically change things. There's also the newer more efficient nuclear reactors that Bill Gates has been trying to get into production. I expect energy to go up an order of magnitude within the next 30 years in both cleanliness and quantity. "rich people have a lot, the poor scrapes by." This has been the natural state of things for nearly all of human history. But economists are flagging inequality as a really important problem to solve, not necessarily because it's moral, but because it leads to political instability. We had an anomaly around the 60s though. Maybe it was trying to look good against the commies. Economists argue it could be tax and union policies. Whatever it is, it matter enough politically, that I believe we'll hit a 30 year phase of equality within the next century.

vimy 5y ago

Humanity will have achieved immortality. Dying / Aging will be considered a curable disease. This will have all kinds of societal consequences. Both positive and negative.

rapjr9 5y ago

I take some guidance from this quote from the movie "The Man Who Fell To Earth": "This is 20th century America and we're going to keep it that way" The powerful will resist change that threatens their power. So change will only come via paths the powerful do not control. So look at everything that is not centralized and expect change to start to manifest there. Look at everything centralized and expect it to stay the same. Apply grains of salt as necessary since any generalization will always be imperfect. It's one way to think about long term change though.

timonoko 5y ago

Try to explain the current world to someone from 100 years ago. There are just too many alien concepts. "We all have these small picture plates in our pockets and they are all connected to each other via wireless telegram. And they are connected to libraries too -- you can read any book or newspaper and see any movie on that plate. You need no money as the plate is connected to a bank. You need no house keys, because the door can take orders via telegram." "We can send telegrams to a great big wall and others can browse and read those announcements from anywhere. They are organized so that you can have public discussions on variety of subjects". "Our biggest problem now is that there are too many libraries. Anybody can write a newspaper or book and put it into library. We do not know anymore what is true or false. Official Libraries of Truth are known to have mostly lies." "In the next 100 years we have even bigger problem. More and more people do not live in the real world. They have such devices that they can believe they are living in a made-up story or dream. It is like a drug, they cannot do any work. If you wake them, they can go insane. Soon we have to just let them sleep all the time in large dormitories and storage rooms."

trinovantes 5y ago
In the 1920s, airplanes and cars already exist but were not widely used. The other civilization-changing inventions in the last 100 years were probably microprocessor and the internet in the 60s and 70s. Maybe some fringe tech today will be widely used in 2120. It's also possible some tech that hasn't been invented will overtake the world in just a few short years. Of course there were also two world wars in the last 100 years so who knows what will happen.

timonoko 5y ago

Post-Millenials discuss about Distant Future: "Fossil Fuel & Covid". AKA "Mental Myobia"

Jerrrry 5y ago

Shamelessly plugging (professor) Isaac Arthur's brilliant Youtube Channel. Haven't seen anyone else make the most realistic compilation of humanities next 100, 1e6, and 2**4**4 years from now. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g

charlieyu1 5y ago

A boring dystopia. We all thought the world was getting better during 1990s