45 ms·

It would be very easy to scrape Zillow in 2021, sure. But it would have been very difficult to do so in 1970!

wonderwonder 5y ago
sure but they could easily scrape Zillow in 2020 and compare the numbers to 2021. Those numbers would show a ~17% increase. If they are unable to adapt their model to modern data sets then the model is pretty much useless. Edit: General response to the responses. I am not advocating for Zillow to be a source of truth, I was responding to the parent comment of my post and their mention of Zillow. What I am saying is that we are not limited to using methodologies of the past, there are vast datasets and modern data collection methods available to us now that can be used.
- Rebelgecko 5y ago
  Considering the financial issues Zillow is experiencing, I'm not sure that it makes sense to trust their pricing models. Zillow and Opendoor bouncing off of each other has given some neighborhoods the real estate equivalent of Amazon's book about flies that was algorithmically priced at $24 million (https://www.wired.com/2011/04/amazon-flies-24-million/ https://www.wired.com/2011/04/amazon-flies-24-million/)
  - Supermancho 5y ago
    > I'm not sure that it makes sense to trust their pricing models. Zillow, Redfin, etc list at prices that may be inflated, but they always list the purchased pricing as far back as they can and raise estimate to last sale if higher.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    I don't think his point is Zillow specifically, but the housing market as it exists today. Zillow is his example.
  - SilasX 5y ago
    Zillow's model is fine in the aggregate, which is what the parent was suggesting it for. They ran into trouble profiting from it because adverse selection hits them hard -- they'll only be able to buy from the very homeowners whom the model most overpredicts the value of, because of unobservables it can't model. None of that relates the question of whether Zillow, on overage, correctly predicts how much the market, in the aggregate, has moved. I think you're confusing separate issues because they both merge into a narrative of "zillow bad".
- joshuamorton 5y ago
  My rent dropped 20% (for the same unit) in the past year. That wouldn't be reflected on Zillow, but should be considered as part of the cpi, right?
  - kgc 5y ago
    Which city?
- bosie 5y ago
  And when Zillow goes bust or fakes the data etc, what do you do?

sure but they could easily scrape Zillow in 2020 and compare the numbers to 2021. Those numbers would show a ~17% increase. If they are unable to adapt their model to modern data sets then the model is pretty much useless. Edit: General response to the responses. I am not advocating for Zillow to be a source of truth, I was responding to the parent comment of my post and their mention of Zillow. What I am saying is that we are not limited to using methodologies of the past, there are vast datasets and modern data collection methods available to us now that can be used.

Rebelgecko 5y ago
Considering the financial issues Zillow is experiencing, I'm not sure that it makes sense to trust their pricing models. Zillow and Opendoor bouncing off of each other has given some neighborhoods the real estate equivalent of Amazon's book about flies that was algorithmically priced at $24 million (https://www.wired.com/2011/04/amazon-flies-24-million/ https://www.wired.com/2011/04/amazon-flies-24-million/)
- Supermancho 5y ago
  > I'm not sure that it makes sense to trust their pricing models. Zillow, Redfin, etc list at prices that may be inflated, but they always list the purchased pricing as far back as they can and raise estimate to last sale if higher.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  I don't think his point is Zillow specifically, but the housing market as it exists today. Zillow is his example.
- SilasX 5y ago
  Zillow's model is fine in the aggregate, which is what the parent was suggesting it for. They ran into trouble profiting from it because adverse selection hits them hard -- they'll only be able to buy from the very homeowners whom the model most overpredicts the value of, because of unobservables it can't model. None of that relates the question of whether Zillow, on overage, correctly predicts how much the market, in the aggregate, has moved. I think you're confusing separate issues because they both merge into a narrative of "zillow bad".
joshuamorton 5y ago
My rent dropped 20% (for the same unit) in the past year. That wouldn't be reflected on Zillow, but should be considered as part of the cpi, right?
- kgc 5y ago
  Which city?
bosie 5y ago
And when Zillow goes bust or fakes the data etc, what do you do?