I'm not sure I buy this. The main driver of the industrial revolution was intellectual: the emergence of science, classical liberalism, mercantilism, and modern

I'm not sure I buy this. The main driver of the industrial revolution was intellectual: the emergence of science, classical liberalism, mercantilism, and modern economics. All this was in place before anything really took off. Industrialization without fossil fuels would scale much more slowly with wood being used at first and then probably crops being grown for energy (biofuel). Once we figured out electricity we'd have large scale hydropower and wind power. Then we'd figure out either photovoltaics or nuclear fission, at which point we'd be off to the races. My guess is we'd be almost 100% nuclear and hydro powered right now with use of photovoltaics growing. Stable power grids would probably take longer to emerge, but we figured out simple rechargeable batteries (lead-acid) fairly early. People would probably have banks of these in their homes to power minimal lighting and things like radios, TVs, etc. at night and run their appliances at specified times when the grid was at high power. You'd probably see a food system less dependent on refrigeration until stable grids emerged. On extremely long historical timescales I suppose depletion of other elements is possible, but things like iron are incredibly common in Earth's crust. I'd be concerned more about rare elements.