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It's worth considering the relative sizes tho: the Chines government alone holds 11 trillion dollars in treasury bonds[0], the total US debt is about 28T. Ever

It's worth considering the relative sizes tho: the Chines government alone holds 11 trillion dollars in treasury bonds[0], the total US debt is about 28T. Evergrande's USD-denominated debt is 20 billion, even if they wanted to cash it all out rather than just refinance it I doubt it would be such a huge wave. Panicing investors fleeing to the USD safe haven seems more likely to cause trouble. [0] https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-u-s-debt-does-china-own-417016 https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-u-s-debt-does-china-own-... [1] https://www.ft.com/content/7ac2d661-5a63-4768-91a1-182f02b2afa5 https://www.ft.com/content/7ac2d661-5a63-4768-91a1-182f02b2a...

yakz 5y ago
The article says $1.1 trillion, not $11 trillion.
- TechBro8615 5y ago
  The proximity of that number to the cost of the recent infrastructure package has me thinking. Normally we consider printing money to be deflationary to the US economy. But in a global situation like this, if the US prints a dollar for every one that China owns, does that devalue China’s dollar holdings? How does that impact their leverage in negotiating with the US for payback of its (dollar-denominated) debt?
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    "Devalue" compared to what? If both China and the USA are printing money, then they could come out about even, or one could come out ahead of the other. Right now, the USA is printing more money than China, so the exchange rate is 6.38 RMB/USD, which is pretty strong by historic standards.
  - pertymcpert 5y ago
    That's called exporting inflation, and it's one of the huge advantages of the dollar hegemony. Also, China can't negotiate the treasury bonds because those bonds are fixed income securities. They can't suddenly demand early payment.
- riffraff 5y ago
  yes, missed a "." , sorry
alliao 5y ago
let's go to horse's mouth.. https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

yakz 5y ago

The article says $1.1 trillion, not $11 trillion.

TechBro8615 5y ago
The proximity of that number to the cost of the recent infrastructure package has me thinking. Normally we consider printing money to be deflationary to the US economy. But in a global situation like this, if the US prints a dollar for every one that China owns, does that devalue China’s dollar holdings? How does that impact their leverage in negotiating with the US for payback of its (dollar-denominated) debt?
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  "Devalue" compared to what? If both China and the USA are printing money, then they could come out about even, or one could come out ahead of the other. Right now, the USA is printing more money than China, so the exchange rate is 6.38 RMB/USD, which is pretty strong by historic standards.
- pertymcpert 5y ago
  That's called exporting inflation, and it's one of the huge advantages of the dollar hegemony. Also, China can't negotiate the treasury bonds because those bonds are fixed income securities. They can't suddenly demand early payment.
riffraff 5y ago
yes, missed a "." , sorry

alliao 5y ago

let's go to horse's mouth.. https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt