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Golden Arches Theory was intended as a joke. Trying to "debunk" a joke, does nothing to negate the trend of increased economic cooperation leading to decreased
by pembrook 5y ago
Golden Arches Theory was intended as a joke. Trying to "debunk" a joke, does nothing to negate the trend of increased economic cooperation leading to decreased conflict.
I think the author's own response is fitting to the sentiment in your comment:
I was both amazed and amused by how much the Golden Arches Theory had gotten around and how intensely certain people wanted to prove it wrong. They...insisted that politics, and the never-ending struggle between nation-states, were the immutable defining feature of international affairs, and they were professionally and psychologically threatened by the idea that globalization and economic integration might actually influence geopolitics in some very new and fundamental ways.
The link you posted at the end is a great example of what I'm talking about. The NYT has an incentive to scare you into thinking China is going to take over the US and destroy your way of life and imprison you in some dystopian hellscape. And so we must oppose them at all costs to protect our way of life, and subscribe to the NYT to read more about this growing conflict!
Sounds exactly like the scary bedtime stories Hollywood told us about the USSR during the Cold War. Or the stories Newsweek told us of how Japan was going to dominate and overtake American business in the 1980s. Oh no!
Not saying history will necessarily repeat and China will implode in a USSR-like manor, but, could it be that maybe those fears are just a little overblown?
China is an aging, shrinking population with still a long way to go towards industrializing. And a dictatorship isn't usually a great way to organize a government if your goal is stability.
Are you even willing to consider the possibility that maybe this deal was a mutually beneficial fair trade, with upside for both parties?
- tablespoon 5y ago> Golden Arches Theory was intended as a joke. Trying to "debunk" a joke, does nothing to negate the trend of increased economic cooperation leading to decreased conflict. I think you misunderstand. I wasn't specifically referring to the Golden Arches Theory as bunk, but the more general one you describe. It's bunk because it makes assumptions about motivations and strategies that aren't necessarily true, not because of some specific counterexample to a jokey formulation. In China's case, I don't think it's playing the same "economic cooperation" game you assume it is. If the "decreased conflict" result has any truth behind it, it's because if increased interdependency, but it's pretty clear (for them) that's not a desired end-state, but rather a transitory state on the way to more independence and greater strength. Those I suppose you could still have "decreased conflict" even in that case, as long as other nations remain too dependent on them to be able to object or resist if they want to do something objectionable.
- ngc248 5y agoThis is what people don't understand, the CCP is not playing a co-operation game. They will play a co-operation game until they get what they want from you. After that its the domination game. It's like patriotism, nationalism have become bad words in the USA. The USA and its values are really worth fighting for (am not even from the US), but this thing about "lets not be nationalistic", and if you criticize the CCP you hear "oh let's not be sinophobic" needs to stop. All the 3rd world countries who got into the Belt and Road "co-operation" are really getting belted now.