22 ms·

Crypto lobbying is going ballistic

69 points by helsinkiandrew 5y ago

voz_ 5y ago
I can't wait for this bubble to burst so I never have to hear about these tulips again.
- inshadows 5y ago
  I'm enlightened by you expressing your feelings.
- MadSudaca 5y ago
  Maybe it’s be like the dotcom bubble. It’ll burst in a big way, leaving many people broke, then from the aftermath good projects will emerge and will come to redefine the world.
  - unicornmama 5y ago
    Even before the dot com bubble burst, we saw businesses with practical value producing applications of the Internet. Today it’s over 10 years of crypto. I have only observed one application of crypto that touches the real economy - with a relatively obscure token. Everything else, seems to be just be playing financial games inside of crypto, money laundering, side-stepping regulations, speculative meme assets and of course scams. Can you point to an actual application of crypto that touches the real economy? I will be very interested!
    - FDSGSG 5y ago
      >Can you point to an actual application of crypto that touches the real economy? I will be very interested! Yeah, cryptocurrency effectively replaced Liberty Reserve & co.
    - jakub_g 5y ago
      Crypto made producing ransomware a viable business model. Touching real economy in real ways!
      - FDSGSG 5y ago
        Ransomware was a viable business model before cryptocurrency. The beginning of the winlocker boom slightly predates cryptocurrencies, ransomware was already the hottest thing on cybercrime forums before cryptocurrency appeared. Crypto as in cryptography? Maybe.
    - john37386 5y ago
      Ubisoft is adding NFT in its new games. Ubisoft is a real company producing real games with real players all around the world. https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/7/22822410/ubisoft-nfts-quartz-digits-ghost-recon-breakpoint https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/7/22822410/ubisoft-nfts-qua...
      - EdwardDiego 5y ago
        I'm not surprised - people want to buy them, so they'll happily sell them.
      - zombietfk 5y ago
        But is it actually adding anything? Even the article says what they are doing (reselling digital goods) doesn't require any blockchain technology at all.
        Kinrany 5y ago
        It does make the ability to resell inalienable. Of course it's worthless when the game will be shut down in only a few years.
        Avshalom 5y ago
        Sort of. You can sell it but Ubi can just as easily blacklist any ID it feels like, preventing you from actually using anything you bought. Which will probably happen the first time some high profile streamer gets scammed out of his special shirt or whatever.
      - ElonMuskrat 5y ago
        Is this just protifing on a topical craze or does this have staying power? What experience does in-game NFTs offer to players that they otherwise cannot find in traditional database backed assets?
        jfk13 5y ago
        > Is this just protifing on a topical craze Of course. > What experience does in-game NFTs offer to players The warm glow of feeling they're the trendiest kids.
    - beebmam 5y ago
      The black market for pharmaceuticals are greatly touched by cryptocurrency, and that's certainly the "real economy". It's deeply harmful, but it is part of the real economy
      - ElonMuskrat 5y ago
        This is a good point. Black markets are indeed part of the real economy, whether governments and people like it or not. That being said, regulation is inevitible.
      - john37386 5y ago
        You can see the glass half full or half empty. I see it half full.
    - boppo1 5y ago
      I think institutions will adopt it for real-time security settlement. T+3 caused the Robinhood debacle of shutting down retail GME purchasing. As far as I can tell from the congressional hearings, T+3 is because the incumbents feel secure that they have a monopoly on security settlement tech.
      - unicornmama 5y ago
        Fascinating. Hope someone here with experience in settlement and clearing houses could shed some light. I wonder if any new solutions would need to use any existing crypto network or if they can just spin off their own.
    - MadSudaca 5y ago
      I like two projects: One offering decentralized computation and the other one offers the most efficient/cheap transfer of value ever created. I expect both projects or some incarnation of their UVP to radically change the world.
- afc 5y ago
  Since when have you been waiting? What will you do in twenty years if it hasn't burst by then? And in forty? Continue to wait?
  - voz_ 5y ago
    There's not a single problem it solves. A technical solution in search of a problem is a hilariously poor investment, esp when any distributed system will do the same work - but better. And all the "value" stuff on it like NFTs is just a giant ponzi scheme from any way you look at it.
    - gjs278 5y ago
      buying things from nootropic websites where they won’t process credit cards
    - andruby 5y ago
      I do think there is at least one problem that crypto currencies solve better than the status-quo: sending money internationally. It has less regulation than the official channels. Can have better privacy. Can be cheaper. Can be faster. Compared to Western Union, international wire transfers and the likes, sending money home for foreign workers (remittance), seems to be much better with Stellar, or other low-fee crypto currencies. Maybe one more problem that it solves: I bought some crypto early on as a hedge against global politics going to shit (US, Russia or China going into proxy wars) or economics taking a dive (and governments/central banks deciding to devaluate, ...). I totally agree with you on NFT's though. And I don't like the speculation/gambling aspect of crypto currencies.
      - lottin 5y ago
        > It has less regulation than the official channels. If the way it "solves the problem" is by not following the regulations that everybody else has to follow, I don't know if it's actually solving a problem so much as cheating the system.
      - another_story 5y ago
- 5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
  If climate change is finally taken seriously at some point, I hope they get clamped down on very hard. Unlike meth labs and "terrorists", a large mining farm can be traced by power usage. (Unless you're using solar, then go ahead and mine all you want.) Crypto fanatics are doing nothing of any practical value while greatly helping out with destroying our planet. We've been having rolling blackouts recently because of these fuckers. Energy is cheap in my country and they use that. Power lines are not built for that sort of thing. The normal paying consumers are suffering as a result.
  - sktrdie 5y ago
    Afaik most % of mining happens close to the energy source where it can't even be transported or where it's already being wasted. At least that would be the most economically viable solution; hence hopefully what everyone will eventually be doing (doing otherwise would not be rewardable). Actually in a way the market price is not only defined by speculation but also how much "paying for energy" compares to "getting the bitcoin reward". So in a way the market price tells us how much people are willing to pay for energy (globally). But yeah I agree it all sucks that it's going to mess up our planet even more.
    - formerly_proven 5y ago
      You're assuming that miners are paying the full cost of the energy they're using, which is not the case - see all the mining operations in places with subsidized energy, i.e. everyone else is paying some of the price, not to mention the externalities.
    - jakub_g 5y ago
      There's been quite a few reports of unused coal burning power stations being revived and dedicated to mining crypto.
  - donatj 5y ago
    > doing nothing of any practical value while greatly helping out with destroying our planet Serious question, where does this line of thinking end? Gaming rigs use upwards of a thousand watts, no practical value in gaming. Watching sitcoms on a television has no practical value. Phones capable of doing things other than making calls have no practical value, but we charge them all the time. Honestly I think providing an alternative financial system is more practical than most of the other energy intensive things we do these days. The idea that we should do less stuff and be miserable because climate change is fatalist and just silly. We should be building nuclear power plants at a drastic rate to meet supply.
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  I guess it'll never go to zero without legislation... but the Internet's power to make communities from far-flung people mean nowadays we have a community of flat-earthers, as well as a community of rubes, and they'll continue to believe in it as it bubbles up and bursts again and again. The number of rubes you could convince about tulips in Amsterdam was finite, but on the Internet...
  - heurisko 5y ago
    > The number of rubes you could convince about tulips in Amsterdam was finite, but on the Internet... I think a lot of "investors" (gamblers) know it is mostly a scam, but are hoping they're not going to be the ones left without a chair when the music stops.
- roenxi 5y ago
  Bitcoin have to be worth something in the same sense that a leaf of toilet paper isn't actually free - just very cheap. We don't know what the long term fair price of a bitcoin is and it isn't at all obvious that we are in a bubble. For all the naysayers and the evangelists, at this point it is clear that cryptocurrencies have staying power and the broader market (not going to pick out bitcoin specifically) seems likely outlive the US dollar. Decentralised protocols are more reliable than the US government.
  - kazen44 5y ago
    Are decentralised protocols really more reliable? I highly doubt it. The reason the dollar is so strong is because it is backed by a goverment which will use its power to guarantee the dollar does not collapse. The same goes for the Euro, yen, RMB etc. When hyperinflation kicks in, will a decentralised protocol step up and try to curtail it?
    - uh_uh 5y ago
      When hyperinflation kicks in, will the United States military step up and try to curtail it? If so how?
    - throwaway52355 5y ago
      The dollar is strong? Against what? It and all the other fiat currencies were losing their worth for decades.
  - tsimionescu 5y ago
    > For all the naysayers and the evangelists, at this point it is clear that cryptocurrencies have staying power and the broader market (not going to pick out bitcoin specifically) seems likely outlive the US dollar. Decentralised protocols are more reliable than the US government. By what logic do you expect a ~10 year old technology reliant on massive amounts of power in a global warming world, that only started seeing adoption ~5 years ago, will beat the US dollar's ~200 year old lifetime? Not to mention, USD and the US are such a central part of all finance and technology worldwide that it's absurd to imagine Bitcoin would survive a collapse of the US government.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- clippablematt 5y ago
  Hundreds of years after the tulip bubble, tulips are still a big part of Dutch tourism with flower markets being a big attraction in Amsterdam. Because culture doesn’t disappear. So good look with that.
  - Jensson 5y ago
    Crypto bubble bursting just means that all investors leave, not that crypto currencies disappear. So bitcoin would go back to levels it was at before the investment craze 4 years ago, so about 5 years ago? At that point you could buy stuff with it and send people money, but people didn't view it as an investment vehicle.
    - denton-scratch 5y ago
      The blockchain is an append-only structure; it can only grow. The longer the blockchain, the more it costs to process a transaction. So if people divest from bitcoin and the price drops, that won't make bitcoin more suitable for buying stuff. Nothing can make the blockchain shorter.
      - uh_uh 5y ago
        You can truncate it at any point you want. If in 2060, the community collectively decides that the chain is too long, they can just decide that a block from 2040 is the new genesis block.
        denton-scratch 5y ago
        By 2060 I'll have been dead for about 15 years.
- Quindecillion 5y ago
  The altcoin bubble will certainly pop. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere though, so if you include that under your definition of a "tulip", I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.
- vagab0nd 5y ago
  May I offer a solution to your problem? Just buy some bitcoin to hedge your feelings. You win if it goes up. You win if it goes down.
- spurgu 5y ago
  Hasn't it "burst" a handful of times already?
newswasboring 5y ago
https://archive.md/6mYtT https://archive.md/6mYtT
fumblebee 5y ago
https://outline.com/LeTwhC https://outline.com/LeTwhC
janandonly 5y ago
This was unavoidable. We need good regulation to weed out the… weeds. The more focus on actual projects with actually useful products the better for humanity.
throwaway55421 5y ago
The entire point of cryptocurrency is to bypass this stuff. If you're using a regulated exchange, just go and buy Apple shares or use a bank instead. It really is almost completely pointless.
- nomercy400 5y ago
  I think it is less about not having regulations and more about bypassing the current establishment of banks and exchanges. It feels more like a union of those shunned by the current establishment, trying to get a piece of the money pie.
- netcan 5y ago
  Who's point? The whole point of Google, to some people at Google, might have been "don't be evil" at one point in time. Decentralisation was the whole point of the WWW. Different people have different goals. Largely, it's just about making money.
  - spiorf 5y ago
    Exactly. Since making money is the real point, someone bypassed all the bullshit about purpose and literally made a new form of money with properties different from any form of money before. You can like it or not, but it is not going to just stop existing.
    - netcan 5y ago
      Sure. That wasn't a criticism of crypto. Whether one of those properties is "freedom from regulation" is yet to be seen. I personally quite doubt it.
  - throwaway55421 5y ago
    Google is a company, it's not comparable. Companies almost by definition seek to gain at the expense of others, if not initially then a few years in after the honeymoon. I agree that decentralisation is the whole point of the WWW and I use it in that manner, I think people who spend all of their time on one or two centralised platforms are bizarre.
otar 5y ago
A huge thanks to those who don’t hesitate and post archive.org or outline.com links to the partially readable articles. My typical workflow on HN when I see the paid content block/popup on a destination website: 1) Go back 2) Open HN comments 3) Find archive.org or outline.com link 4) Read the content
Yizahi 5y ago
After replacing word "lobby" with "bribe" text becomes easier to understand :)
naruvimama 5y ago
My biggest fear is that institutions & governments jumping into this pyramid scheme, throwing our hard earned money to make billionaires out of snake oil men. Bitcoin was fine as long as it was a small geeky fun currency with actual small transactions. It became a pyramid scheme once speculators jumped in. I am open to government or industry backed crypto or digital currency.
- high_5 5y ago
  I think it's a bait and switch scenario where the institutions build something bitcoin like infrastructure but in reality it's just centralized infrastructure for credit cards 2.0.
- spiorf 5y ago
  > government or industry backed digital currency That's your bank account and credit cards etc.. The whole point of cryptocurrency is to not to be backed or controlled by any single entity.
  - uh_uh 5y ago
    Your bank account and credit cards are not programmable money. They don't have smart contracts where third parties can verify the fairness of the financial instruments you are purchasing. All you have is trust in financial institutions.
    - selfhoster11 5y ago
      The only reason why they aren't programmable, is because banks choose not to expose an API. In fact, even that's not completely true: Starling offers programmable bank accounts in the UK, and there is at least one programmable credit card provider in the US.
      - uh_uh 5y ago
        These are good steps yes. But still, you're at the mercy of fintechs. Also, for this stuff to be really useful, it needs to be standardised worldwide. E.g. Algerian traders should be able to trade with Japanese counterparties by interacting with the same smart contracts.
stefanve 5y ago
total privatisation of the money system, sold as democratization
- gorgoiler 5y ago
  What an excellent and pithy description (assuming you meant this as a criticism.)
  - stefanve 5y ago
    thanks, I did :)
- JanisL 5y ago
  The monetary system in many places was already mostly private, most money is created by commercial banks and we have institutions like central banks with private ownership in many countries.
- clippablematt 5y ago
  State controlled violence backed money vs opt in p2p networks.
- Quindecillion 5y ago
  Bitcoin isn't "private". It's probably the most open and public money that has ever existed. There's no company behind it, no CEO, no marketing team... it's just a protocol for a p2p network. All the other "cryptos"? Sure, regulate them to death. I don't care. Good luck doing that with Bitcoin though.
  - stefanve 5y ago
    the technology is not private, but the coin ownership is. As there is no government institution that can print/create coins and use that as to control inflation, adjust for GDP etc. and set rules on how the newly create money should be used. This leaves supply of coins in the market to people or private institutions that have a lot of them and thus money supply is privatised. And yes banks are private but the money supply is ultimately controlled by the Fed and thus the democratic system is responsible for the money supplies as it appoints the governing body. the p2p network is free to all, just like handing cash money is free to all. Individual freedom is not the same thing as democracy, to much individual freedom is ultimately anti democratic. Because this will always favour the rich and powerful.
streamofdigits 5y ago
revolving doors between government / regulatory roles and private entities that stand to gain massively if they influence the legal regime to legitimize the "minted" wealth. corruption at work, in plain sight. stark analogies with the voucher privatization [0] of the collapsing Soviet Union that created the ruling kleptocracy. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voucher_privatization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voucher_privatization
mudlus 5y ago
Reading the top comments in this thread we are still hilariously early.
- Quindecillion 5y ago
  We're going to see the "tulips" line dragged out for years to come. How long do people think "bubbles" last?
  - sofixa 5y ago
    Depends on the bubble, some have dragged on for decades ( e.g. railways in multiple countries or the Canal Mania in the UK)
  - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
    The answer to that of always: Until there aren't any more "greater fools"
- xiphias2 5y ago
  Adoption rate at this point is about 0.5%. I guess things will start to change here on HN at 10% global adoption rate (5 more years)
  - MilaM 5y ago
    Adoption as what? To do anything useful with Crypto you still need to change it to a real currency on a bank account.
    - xiphias2 5y ago
      I just bought 3 plane tickets with Bitcoin yesterday on cheapair.com. Just because it's not used by everybody, it can be useful for some people. Bitcoin has never failed me while travelling.
      - MilaM 5y ago
reginold 5y ago
The article focuses on three areas 1. stopping crypto assets from being used to launder money 2. taxation of crypto investments. 3. financial regulation: protecting consumers from fraud, reducing systemic risk and ensuring fair competition All of these seem like fair measures. How successful they will be? Exchanges like Coinbase are a key point of regulation. Also regarding the lobbing, "The Economist calculates that crypto firms spent around $5m lobbying the American Senate in the first nine months of 2021". For those more experienced in lobbying, is that a lot?
numair 5y ago
Since this seems to be yet another HN comment thread filled with people who feel really smart for dismissing the potential of cryptographic digital currencies and the emerging liquid market for these digital assets, I'll just copy and paste my thoughts (which I might end up having to do often, since these sort of crypto-hate-fests are now popping up on HN at a rate of several per day): > Money moves fast in the crypto world. It’s “minted.” It’s “burned.” It’s earned. It’s hacked. It’s fundraised. It’s parked into a failed DAO. It’s gambled away. It’s up on a 100x leveraged return. It’s wiped out in a margin call. It’s up 20% — oh wait, now it’s flash-crashed down 30%. It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — and it’s exactly what the global economy needs. We need ways to convince capital to move around in new and weird ways. We need to get money into the hands of different sets of hands way more often than we’ve been doing. We need to experiment, to be right, to be wrong, to be doing things with money. That’s what capital productivity is all about. Money isn’t supposed to sit in a bank feeling “safe;” it’s supposed to be running around, acting young and risky, learning new things and creating new opportunities. https://numair.medium.com/the-intelligent-case-for-crypto-43e60cfb57f3 https://numair.medium.com/the-intelligent-case-for-crypto-43...
- Gys 5y ago
  > Money isn’t supposed to sit in a bank feeling “safe;” it’s supposed to be running around, acting young and risky, learning new things and creating new opportunities. But how is this different for crypto currencies compared to fiat currencies? From what I understand by far most crypto capital does not move at all?
  - numair 5y ago
    Quite the opposite. Check the moves on the exchanges, and you’ll see that the velocity of capital is truly unmatched. This is exactly why lots of very serious asset managers and quant shops have jumped in — crypto is becoming the major leagues, and making TradFi look like a minor league game, scary-fast.
- vanusa 5y ago
  That’s what capital productivity is all about. No, it's about investing money (and other resources) into endeavors that create actual goods and and services. The crypto world is (absent a few marginal use cases) almost entirely about derivatives and speculation - and of course money laundering and ransomware. That is to to say: the very opposite of the intrinsic purpose (to the extent that it has one) of capital. It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — and it’s exactly what the global economy needs. I have an even better catchphrase for you: "It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — in other words, pure nihilism, baby! And it’s exactly what the global economy needs."
gvv 5y ago
Great, all the campaign funds should be auditable on the blockchain for full transparency.
aj_g 5y ago
It would be an interesting experiment if commenting on all crypto related articles required you to disclose how many dollars(/euros/whatever) you have invested in crypto.
- reginold 5y ago
  Worth an experiment, even as simple as "I own crypto" - Disclosure: I own crypto
- webinvest 5y ago
  What would you hope to gain with that knowledge in each scenario?
pezzana 5y ago
> The industry has gained political capital, too. In America, the congressional Blockchain Caucus counts 35 lawmakers as members. Cynthia Lummis, a senator from Wyoming, has received a big chunk of her 2026 campaign contributions from individuals linked to crypto firms. Last month she said she opposed Jerome Powell’s reappointment as head of the Federal Reserve because of the central bank’s “political approach to digital assets”. In October 2020 the Chamber of Digital Commerce’s political-action committee gave $50 worth of bitcoin to every member of Congress. A constant refrain from those heavily invested in the financial system is that governments will "make Bitcoin illegal." What's missing from this perspective is the possibility that as Bitcoin becomes more widely-recognized and doesn't vaporize in a puff of schadenfreude, it gains powerful supporters who can ensure that the clampdown never happens. Ironically, there are those using Bitcoin who would like to see nothing less than a total ban of Bitcoin use in the US. They see this as final proof of the utility, value proposition, and when the ban fails to work, vindication.
CynicusRex 5y ago
History rhymes, therefore, one can predict the future. To quote myself: Greed is the elephant in the room. Whether it's cash, gold, or an NFT of Elon Musk's flatulence, no matter the currency, as long as humans can't evolve beyond their greedy nature nothing will change. All bitcoin has done is strengthen this vice and make yet another group of rich people, who, as usual, will do anything to preserve and increase their wealth. For example Max Keiser ripping a ten dollar bill saying he will just buy politicians [21]. Or the next quote by some bitcoin millionaire on an online forum I used to frequent: “I've always used Bitcoin as an insurance against corrupted governments by private companies. The tip is to move to a country where the government is corrupted by crypto holders! ... and you don't have to move to small island to do that. There is plenty of rich country doing so.” —Name-I-won't-mention, living in France, 2021. That doesn't spell confidence nor competence for the next “elite”, does it. Neither did I for that matter. As soon as I felt being rich was within my grasp I began to think selfishly: “No way I'm giving any of this to governments.” Which is fine in truly oppressed countries. But if one inhabits a developed country, chances are that being able to afford crypto“currencies” to begin with is the result of the fortunate circumstances that you or your parents enjoyed because of, among other things, good governance. Whether your ego likes it or not, most success is due to luck [22][23]. In the end, governments aren't inherently bad, but the people in it can be. And if they can be corrupted by bitcoin then we are merely running uphill on the Titanic. “Strong currencies are not the solution to poor governance. Good governance and democracy makes a country and its currency strong. Not vice versa.” —halukakin, HackerNews, 2021. —https://www.cynicusrex.com/file/cryptocultscience.html https://www.cynicusrex.com/file/cryptocultscience.html
unstatusthequo 5y ago
I feel like HN as a whole has a lot of people who are sad they weren’t in crypto in 2012 and take a strong stance against it now since they missed the train. Oh, mining is a big waste of electricity, but your SaaS/PaaS/IaaS cloud whatever isn’t. Come on.
dgm885 5y ago
In this thread, ignorance…..is going ballistic.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

voz_ 5y ago

I can't wait for this bubble to burst so I never have to hear about these tulips again.

inshadows 5y ago
I'm enlightened by you expressing your feelings.
MadSudaca 5y ago
Maybe it’s be like the dotcom bubble. It’ll burst in a big way, leaving many people broke, then from the aftermath good projects will emerge and will come to redefine the world.
- unicornmama 5y ago
  Even before the dot com bubble burst, we saw businesses with practical value producing applications of the Internet. Today it’s over 10 years of crypto. I have only observed one application of crypto that touches the real economy - with a relatively obscure token. Everything else, seems to be just be playing financial games inside of crypto, money laundering, side-stepping regulations, speculative meme assets and of course scams. Can you point to an actual application of crypto that touches the real economy? I will be very interested!
  - FDSGSG 5y ago
    >Can you point to an actual application of crypto that touches the real economy? I will be very interested! Yeah, cryptocurrency effectively replaced Liberty Reserve & co.
  - jakub_g 5y ago
    Crypto made producing ransomware a viable business model. Touching real economy in real ways!
    - FDSGSG 5y ago
      Ransomware was a viable business model before cryptocurrency. The beginning of the winlocker boom slightly predates cryptocurrencies, ransomware was already the hottest thing on cybercrime forums before cryptocurrency appeared. Crypto as in cryptography? Maybe.
  - john37386 5y ago
    Ubisoft is adding NFT in its new games. Ubisoft is a real company producing real games with real players all around the world. https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/7/22822410/ubisoft-nfts-quartz-digits-ghost-recon-breakpoint https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/7/22822410/ubisoft-nfts-qua...
    - EdwardDiego 5y ago
      I'm not surprised - people want to buy them, so they'll happily sell them.
    - zombietfk 5y ago
      But is it actually adding anything? Even the article says what they are doing (reselling digital goods) doesn't require any blockchain technology at all.
      - Kinrany 5y ago
        It does make the ability to resell inalienable. Of course it's worthless when the game will be shut down in only a few years.
        Avshalom 5y ago
        Sort of. You can sell it but Ubi can just as easily blacklist any ID it feels like, preventing you from actually using anything you bought. Which will probably happen the first time some high profile streamer gets scammed out of his special shirt or whatever.
    - ElonMuskrat 5y ago
      Is this just protifing on a topical craze or does this have staying power? What experience does in-game NFTs offer to players that they otherwise cannot find in traditional database backed assets?
      - jfk13 5y ago
        > Is this just protifing on a topical craze Of course. > What experience does in-game NFTs offer to players The warm glow of feeling they're the trendiest kids.
  - beebmam 5y ago
    The black market for pharmaceuticals are greatly touched by cryptocurrency, and that's certainly the "real economy". It's deeply harmful, but it is part of the real economy
    - ElonMuskrat 5y ago
      This is a good point. Black markets are indeed part of the real economy, whether governments and people like it or not. That being said, regulation is inevitible.
    - john37386 5y ago
      You can see the glass half full or half empty. I see it half full.
  - boppo1 5y ago
    I think institutions will adopt it for real-time security settlement. T+3 caused the Robinhood debacle of shutting down retail GME purchasing. As far as I can tell from the congressional hearings, T+3 is because the incumbents feel secure that they have a monopoly on security settlement tech.
    - unicornmama 5y ago
      Fascinating. Hope someone here with experience in settlement and clearing houses could shed some light. I wonder if any new solutions would need to use any existing crypto network or if they can just spin off their own.
  - MadSudaca 5y ago
    I like two projects: One offering decentralized computation and the other one offers the most efficient/cheap transfer of value ever created. I expect both projects or some incarnation of their UVP to radically change the world.
afc 5y ago
Since when have you been waiting? What will you do in twenty years if it hasn't burst by then? And in forty? Continue to wait?
- voz_ 5y ago
  There's not a single problem it solves. A technical solution in search of a problem is a hilariously poor investment, esp when any distributed system will do the same work - but better. And all the "value" stuff on it like NFTs is just a giant ponzi scheme from any way you look at it.
  - gjs278 5y ago
    buying things from nootropic websites where they won’t process credit cards
  - andruby 5y ago
    I do think there is at least one problem that crypto currencies solve better than the status-quo: sending money internationally. It has less regulation than the official channels. Can have better privacy. Can be cheaper. Can be faster. Compared to Western Union, international wire transfers and the likes, sending money home for foreign workers (remittance), seems to be much better with Stellar, or other low-fee crypto currencies. Maybe one more problem that it solves: I bought some crypto early on as a hedge against global politics going to shit (US, Russia or China going into proxy wars) or economics taking a dive (and governments/central banks deciding to devaluate, ...). I totally agree with you on NFT's though. And I don't like the speculation/gambling aspect of crypto currencies.
    - lottin 5y ago
      > It has less regulation than the official channels. If the way it "solves the problem" is by not following the regulations that everybody else has to follow, I don't know if it's actually solving a problem so much as cheating the system.
    - another_story 5y ago
5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
If climate change is finally taken seriously at some point, I hope they get clamped down on very hard. Unlike meth labs and "terrorists", a large mining farm can be traced by power usage. (Unless you're using solar, then go ahead and mine all you want.) Crypto fanatics are doing nothing of any practical value while greatly helping out with destroying our planet. We've been having rolling blackouts recently because of these fuckers. Energy is cheap in my country and they use that. Power lines are not built for that sort of thing. The normal paying consumers are suffering as a result.
- sktrdie 5y ago
  Afaik most % of mining happens close to the energy source where it can't even be transported or where it's already being wasted. At least that would be the most economically viable solution; hence hopefully what everyone will eventually be doing (doing otherwise would not be rewardable). Actually in a way the market price is not only defined by speculation but also how much "paying for energy" compares to "getting the bitcoin reward". So in a way the market price tells us how much people are willing to pay for energy (globally). But yeah I agree it all sucks that it's going to mess up our planet even more.
  - formerly_proven 5y ago
    You're assuming that miners are paying the full cost of the energy they're using, which is not the case - see all the mining operations in places with subsidized energy, i.e. everyone else is paying some of the price, not to mention the externalities.
  - jakub_g 5y ago
    There's been quite a few reports of unused coal burning power stations being revived and dedicated to mining crypto.
- donatj 5y ago
  > doing nothing of any practical value while greatly helping out with destroying our planet Serious question, where does this line of thinking end? Gaming rigs use upwards of a thousand watts, no practical value in gaming. Watching sitcoms on a television has no practical value. Phones capable of doing things other than making calls have no practical value, but we charge them all the time. Honestly I think providing an alternative financial system is more practical than most of the other energy intensive things we do these days. The idea that we should do less stuff and be miserable because climate change is fatalist and just silly. We should be building nuclear power plants at a drastic rate to meet supply.
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
I guess it'll never go to zero without legislation... but the Internet's power to make communities from far-flung people mean nowadays we have a community of flat-earthers, as well as a community of rubes, and they'll continue to believe in it as it bubbles up and bursts again and again. The number of rubes you could convince about tulips in Amsterdam was finite, but on the Internet...
- heurisko 5y ago
  > The number of rubes you could convince about tulips in Amsterdam was finite, but on the Internet... I think a lot of "investors" (gamblers) know it is mostly a scam, but are hoping they're not going to be the ones left without a chair when the music stops.
roenxi 5y ago
Bitcoin have to be worth something in the same sense that a leaf of toilet paper isn't actually free - just very cheap. We don't know what the long term fair price of a bitcoin is and it isn't at all obvious that we are in a bubble. For all the naysayers and the evangelists, at this point it is clear that cryptocurrencies have staying power and the broader market (not going to pick out bitcoin specifically) seems likely outlive the US dollar. Decentralised protocols are more reliable than the US government.
- kazen44 5y ago
  Are decentralised protocols really more reliable? I highly doubt it. The reason the dollar is so strong is because it is backed by a goverment which will use its power to guarantee the dollar does not collapse. The same goes for the Euro, yen, RMB etc. When hyperinflation kicks in, will a decentralised protocol step up and try to curtail it?
  - uh_uh 5y ago
    When hyperinflation kicks in, will the United States military step up and try to curtail it? If so how?
  - throwaway52355 5y ago
    The dollar is strong? Against what? It and all the other fiat currencies were losing their worth for decades.
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  > For all the naysayers and the evangelists, at this point it is clear that cryptocurrencies have staying power and the broader market (not going to pick out bitcoin specifically) seems likely outlive the US dollar. Decentralised protocols are more reliable than the US government. By what logic do you expect a ~10 year old technology reliant on massive amounts of power in a global warming world, that only started seeing adoption ~5 years ago, will beat the US dollar's ~200 year old lifetime? Not to mention, USD and the US are such a central part of all finance and technology worldwide that it's absurd to imagine Bitcoin would survive a collapse of the US government.
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clippablematt 5y ago
Hundreds of years after the tulip bubble, tulips are still a big part of Dutch tourism with flower markets being a big attraction in Amsterdam. Because culture doesn’t disappear. So good look with that.
- Jensson 5y ago
  Crypto bubble bursting just means that all investors leave, not that crypto currencies disappear. So bitcoin would go back to levels it was at before the investment craze 4 years ago, so about 5 years ago? At that point you could buy stuff with it and send people money, but people didn't view it as an investment vehicle.
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    The blockchain is an append-only structure; it can only grow. The longer the blockchain, the more it costs to process a transaction. So if people divest from bitcoin and the price drops, that won't make bitcoin more suitable for buying stuff. Nothing can make the blockchain shorter.
    - uh_uh 5y ago
      You can truncate it at any point you want. If in 2060, the community collectively decides that the chain is too long, they can just decide that a block from 2040 is the new genesis block.
      - denton-scratch 5y ago
        By 2060 I'll have been dead for about 15 years.
Quindecillion 5y ago
The altcoin bubble will certainly pop. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere though, so if you include that under your definition of a "tulip", I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.
vagab0nd 5y ago
May I offer a solution to your problem? Just buy some bitcoin to hedge your feelings. You win if it goes up. You win if it goes down.
spurgu 5y ago
Hasn't it "burst" a handful of times already?

newswasboring 5y ago

https://archive.md/6mYtT https://archive.md/6mYtT

fumblebee 5y ago

https://outline.com/LeTwhC https://outline.com/LeTwhC

janandonly 5y ago

This was unavoidable. We need good regulation to weed out the… weeds. The more focus on actual projects with actually useful products the better for humanity.

throwaway55421 5y ago

The entire point of cryptocurrency is to bypass this stuff. If you're using a regulated exchange, just go and buy Apple shares or use a bank instead. It really is almost completely pointless.

nomercy400 5y ago
I think it is less about not having regulations and more about bypassing the current establishment of banks and exchanges. It feels more like a union of those shunned by the current establishment, trying to get a piece of the money pie.
netcan 5y ago
Who's point? The whole point of Google, to some people at Google, might have been "don't be evil" at one point in time. Decentralisation was the whole point of the WWW. Different people have different goals. Largely, it's just about making money.
- spiorf 5y ago
  Exactly. Since making money is the real point, someone bypassed all the bullshit about purpose and literally made a new form of money with properties different from any form of money before. You can like it or not, but it is not going to just stop existing.
  - netcan 5y ago
    Sure. That wasn't a criticism of crypto. Whether one of those properties is "freedom from regulation" is yet to be seen. I personally quite doubt it.
- throwaway55421 5y ago
  Google is a company, it's not comparable. Companies almost by definition seek to gain at the expense of others, if not initially then a few years in after the honeymoon. I agree that decentralisation is the whole point of the WWW and I use it in that manner, I think people who spend all of their time on one or two centralised platforms are bizarre.

otar 5y ago

A huge thanks to those who don’t hesitate and post archive.org or outline.com links to the partially readable articles. My typical workflow on HN when I see the paid content block/popup on a destination website: 1) Go back 2) Open HN comments 3) Find archive.org or outline.com link 4) Read the content

Yizahi 5y ago

After replacing word "lobby" with "bribe" text becomes easier to understand :)

naruvimama 5y ago

My biggest fear is that institutions & governments jumping into this pyramid scheme, throwing our hard earned money to make billionaires out of snake oil men. Bitcoin was fine as long as it was a small geeky fun currency with actual small transactions. It became a pyramid scheme once speculators jumped in. I am open to government or industry backed crypto or digital currency.

high_5 5y ago
I think it's a bait and switch scenario where the institutions build something bitcoin like infrastructure but in reality it's just centralized infrastructure for credit cards 2.0.
spiorf 5y ago
> government or industry backed digital currency That's your bank account and credit cards etc.. The whole point of cryptocurrency is to not to be backed or controlled by any single entity.
- uh_uh 5y ago
  Your bank account and credit cards are not programmable money. They don't have smart contracts where third parties can verify the fairness of the financial instruments you are purchasing. All you have is trust in financial institutions.
  - selfhoster11 5y ago
    The only reason why they aren't programmable, is because banks choose not to expose an API. In fact, even that's not completely true: Starling offers programmable bank accounts in the UK, and there is at least one programmable credit card provider in the US.
    - uh_uh 5y ago
      These are good steps yes. But still, you're at the mercy of fintechs. Also, for this stuff to be really useful, it needs to be standardised worldwide. E.g. Algerian traders should be able to trade with Japanese counterparties by interacting with the same smart contracts.

stefanve 5y ago

total privatisation of the money system, sold as democratization

gorgoiler 5y ago
What an excellent and pithy description (assuming you meant this as a criticism.)
- stefanve 5y ago
  thanks, I did :)
JanisL 5y ago
The monetary system in many places was already mostly private, most money is created by commercial banks and we have institutions like central banks with private ownership in many countries.
clippablematt 5y ago
State controlled violence backed money vs opt in p2p networks.
Quindecillion 5y ago
Bitcoin isn't "private". It's probably the most open and public money that has ever existed. There's no company behind it, no CEO, no marketing team... it's just a protocol for a p2p network. All the other "cryptos"? Sure, regulate them to death. I don't care. Good luck doing that with Bitcoin though.
- stefanve 5y ago
  the technology is not private, but the coin ownership is. As there is no government institution that can print/create coins and use that as to control inflation, adjust for GDP etc. and set rules on how the newly create money should be used. This leaves supply of coins in the market to people or private institutions that have a lot of them and thus money supply is privatised. And yes banks are private but the money supply is ultimately controlled by the Fed and thus the democratic system is responsible for the money supplies as it appoints the governing body. the p2p network is free to all, just like handing cash money is free to all. Individual freedom is not the same thing as democracy, to much individual freedom is ultimately anti democratic. Because this will always favour the rich and powerful.

streamofdigits 5y ago

revolving doors between government / regulatory roles and private entities that stand to gain massively if they influence the legal regime to legitimize the "minted" wealth. corruption at work, in plain sight. stark analogies with the voucher privatization [0] of the collapsing Soviet Union that created the ruling kleptocracy. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voucher_privatization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voucher_privatization

mudlus 5y ago

Reading the top comments in this thread we are still hilariously early.

Quindecillion 5y ago
We're going to see the "tulips" line dragged out for years to come. How long do people think "bubbles" last?
- sofixa 5y ago
  Depends on the bubble, some have dragged on for decades ( e.g. railways in multiple countries or the Canal Mania in the UK)
- mohanmcgeek 5y ago
  The answer to that of always: Until there aren't any more "greater fools"
xiphias2 5y ago
Adoption rate at this point is about 0.5%. I guess things will start to change here on HN at 10% global adoption rate (5 more years)
- MilaM 5y ago
  Adoption as what? To do anything useful with Crypto you still need to change it to a real currency on a bank account.
  - xiphias2 5y ago
    I just bought 3 plane tickets with Bitcoin yesterday on cheapair.com. Just because it's not used by everybody, it can be useful for some people. Bitcoin has never failed me while travelling.
    - MilaM 5y ago

reginold 5y ago

The article focuses on three areas 1. stopping crypto assets from being used to launder money 2. taxation of crypto investments. 3. financial regulation: protecting consumers from fraud, reducing systemic risk and ensuring fair competition All of these seem like fair measures. How successful they will be? Exchanges like Coinbase are a key point of regulation. Also regarding the lobbing, "The Economist calculates that crypto firms spent around $5m lobbying the American Senate in the first nine months of 2021". For those more experienced in lobbying, is that a lot?

numair 5y ago

Since this seems to be yet another HN comment thread filled with people who feel really smart for dismissing the potential of cryptographic digital currencies and the emerging liquid market for these digital assets, I'll just copy and paste my thoughts (which I might end up having to do often, since these sort of crypto-hate-fests are now popping up on HN at a rate of several per day): > Money moves fast in the crypto world. It’s “minted.” It’s “burned.” It’s earned. It’s hacked. It’s fundraised. It’s parked into a failed DAO. It’s gambled away. It’s up on a 100x leveraged return. It’s wiped out in a margin call. It’s up 20% — oh wait, now it’s flash-crashed down 30%. It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — and it’s exactly what the global economy needs. We need ways to convince capital to move around in new and weird ways. We need to get money into the hands of different sets of hands way more often than we’ve been doing. We need to experiment, to be right, to be wrong, to be doing things with money. That’s what capital productivity is all about. Money isn’t supposed to sit in a bank feeling “safe;” it’s supposed to be running around, acting young and risky, learning new things and creating new opportunities. https://numair.medium.com/the-intelligent-case-for-crypto-43e60cfb57f3 https://numair.medium.com/the-intelligent-case-for-crypto-43...

Gys 5y ago
> Money isn’t supposed to sit in a bank feeling “safe;” it’s supposed to be running around, acting young and risky, learning new things and creating new opportunities. But how is this different for crypto currencies compared to fiat currencies? From what I understand by far most crypto capital does not move at all?
- numair 5y ago
  Quite the opposite. Check the moves on the exchanges, and you’ll see that the velocity of capital is truly unmatched. This is exactly why lots of very serious asset managers and quant shops have jumped in — crypto is becoming the major leagues, and making TradFi look like a minor league game, scary-fast.
vanusa 5y ago
That’s what capital productivity is all about. No, it's about investing money (and other resources) into endeavors that create actual goods and and services. The crypto world is (absent a few marginal use cases) almost entirely about derivatives and speculation - and of course money laundering and ransomware. That is to to say: the very opposite of the intrinsic purpose (to the extent that it has one) of capital. It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — and it’s exactly what the global economy needs. I have an even better catchphrase for you: "It’s unstable, risky, prone to failure — in other words, pure nihilism, baby! And it’s exactly what the global economy needs."

gvv 5y ago

Great, all the campaign funds should be auditable on the blockchain for full transparency.

aj_g 5y ago

It would be an interesting experiment if commenting on all crypto related articles required you to disclose how many dollars(/euros/whatever) you have invested in crypto.

reginold 5y ago
Worth an experiment, even as simple as "I own crypto" - Disclosure: I own crypto
webinvest 5y ago
What would you hope to gain with that knowledge in each scenario?

pezzana 5y ago

> The industry has gained political capital, too. In America, the congressional Blockchain Caucus counts 35 lawmakers as members. Cynthia Lummis, a senator from Wyoming, has received a big chunk of her 2026 campaign contributions from individuals linked to crypto firms. Last month she said she opposed Jerome Powell’s reappointment as head of the Federal Reserve because of the central bank’s “political approach to digital assets”. In October 2020 the Chamber of Digital Commerce’s political-action committee gave $50 worth of bitcoin to every member of Congress. A constant refrain from those heavily invested in the financial system is that governments will "make Bitcoin illegal." What's missing from this perspective is the possibility that as Bitcoin becomes more widely-recognized and doesn't vaporize in a puff of schadenfreude, it gains powerful supporters who can ensure that the clampdown never happens. Ironically, there are those using Bitcoin who would like to see nothing less than a total ban of Bitcoin use in the US. They see this as final proof of the utility, value proposition, and when the ban fails to work, vindication.

CynicusRex 5y ago

History rhymes, therefore, one can predict the future. To quote myself: Greed is the elephant in the room. Whether it's cash, gold, or an NFT of Elon Musk's flatulence, no matter the currency, as long as humans can't evolve beyond their greedy nature nothing will change. All bitcoin has done is strengthen this vice and make yet another group of rich people, who, as usual, will do anything to preserve and increase their wealth. For example Max Keiser ripping a ten dollar bill saying he will just buy politicians [21]. Or the next quote by some bitcoin millionaire on an online forum I used to frequent: “I've always used Bitcoin as an insurance against corrupted governments by private companies. The tip is to move to a country where the government is corrupted by crypto holders! ... and you don't have to move to small island to do that. There is plenty of rich country doing so.” —Name-I-won't-mention, living in France, 2021. That doesn't spell confidence nor competence for the next “elite”, does it. Neither did I for that matter. As soon as I felt being rich was within my grasp I began to think selfishly: “No way I'm giving any of this to governments.” Which is fine in truly oppressed countries. But if one inhabits a developed country, chances are that being able to afford crypto“currencies” to begin with is the result of the fortunate circumstances that you or your parents enjoyed because of, among other things, good governance. Whether your ego likes it or not, most success is due to luck [22][23]. In the end, governments aren't inherently bad, but the people in it can be. And if they can be corrupted by bitcoin then we are merely running uphill on the Titanic. “Strong currencies are not the solution to poor governance. Good governance and democracy makes a country and its currency strong. Not vice versa.” —halukakin, HackerNews, 2021. —https://www.cynicusrex.com/file/cryptocultscience.html https://www.cynicusrex.com/file/cryptocultscience.html

unstatusthequo 5y ago

I feel like HN as a whole has a lot of people who are sad they weren’t in crypto in 2012 and take a strong stance against it now since they missed the train. Oh, mining is a big waste of electricity, but your SaaS/PaaS/IaaS cloud whatever isn’t. Come on.

dgm885 5y ago

In this thread, ignorance…..is going ballistic.

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