4 ms·

Before some "wise guy" comes to parrot about how "correlation does not imply causation" [1], please, take some time to read the article as it has some valuable

Before some "wise guy" comes to parrot about how "correlation does not imply causation" [1], please, take some time to read the article as it has some valuable information. [1]: We've all heard that already, it doesn't impress anyone anymore.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
uniqueuid 5y ago
And it's not even in the article title. In fact, the text says " Figure 1A compares the annual incidence of the disease and the household equipment rate in several countries. There is a temporal correlation between these variables." A temporal correlation is something entirely different to a cross-sectional correlation (arrow of time etc.)
- DantesKite 5y ago
  I tried researching what a temporal correlation is. Do you have short explanation for it?
  - uniqueuid 5y ago
    Temporal correlations are a family of things, since there are many degrees of freedom to choose what to compare with what. A very simple test is the "Granger Causality", which tests whether one timeline significantly predicts another one. You can formulate more complex models such as time series a predicting b with a certain lag. Ultimately, the idea is most often to remove unrelated factors (such as control variables, seasonality, self-influence i.e. autoregression) and then measure how well one series at t(0) predicts another one at t(1), while optionally doing some sort of hyperparameter optimization for the lag (i.e. determine which lag works best).
    - DantesKite 5y ago
      Thank you. Much appreciated.
  - jldugger 5y ago
    A temporal correlation is basically saying that the correlation is strong when broken down by time. Of course, causation is trickier; roosters don't cause the sun to rise, even if they occur simultaneously (or even slightly before!).
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
epgui 5y ago
Most importantly, this is a hypothesis. If you want to suggest a possible causal mechanism, then it's entirely appropriate to suggest that something causes something else with which it appears correlated. It's not intended to be a proof of anything, just a reasonable and interesting proposal which highlights further lines of investigation.
TheBigSalad 5y ago
Did you just post an angry reply to a comment that you imagined someone might make?
mikotodomo 5y ago
Here's a better argument: ==this hypothesis is literally like microwaves killing good bacteria or 5g causing coronavirus==

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

uniqueuid 5y ago

And it's not even in the article title. In fact, the text says " Figure 1A compares the annual incidence of the disease and the household equipment rate in several countries. There is a temporal correlation between these variables." A temporal correlation is something entirely different to a cross-sectional correlation (arrow of time etc.)

DantesKite 5y ago
I tried researching what a temporal correlation is. Do you have short explanation for it?
- uniqueuid 5y ago
  Temporal correlations are a family of things, since there are many degrees of freedom to choose what to compare with what. A very simple test is the "Granger Causality", which tests whether one timeline significantly predicts another one. You can formulate more complex models such as time series a predicting b with a certain lag. Ultimately, the idea is most often to remove unrelated factors (such as control variables, seasonality, self-influence i.e. autoregression) and then measure how well one series at t(0) predicts another one at t(1), while optionally doing some sort of hyperparameter optimization for the lag (i.e. determine which lag works best).
  - DantesKite 5y ago
    Thank you. Much appreciated.
- jldugger 5y ago
  A temporal correlation is basically saying that the correlation is strong when broken down by time. Of course, causation is trickier; roosters don't cause the sun to rise, even if they occur simultaneously (or even slightly before!).

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

epgui 5y ago

Most importantly, this is a hypothesis. If you want to suggest a possible causal mechanism, then it's entirely appropriate to suggest that something causes something else with which it appears correlated. It's not intended to be a proof of anything, just a reasonable and interesting proposal which highlights further lines of investigation.

TheBigSalad 5y ago

Did you just post an angry reply to a comment that you imagined someone might make?

mikotodomo 5y ago

Here's a better argument: ==this hypothesis is literally like microwaves killing good bacteria or 5g causing coronavirus==