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Fun fact: despite the fact that China has (had?) the One Child Policy and Singapore didn't, Singapore's fertility rate is around 1.14 vs 1.7 for China (2019 fig

by klipt 5y ago

Fun fact: despite the fact that China has (had?) the One Child Policy and Singapore didn't, Singapore's fertility rate is around 1.14 vs 1.7 for China (2019 figures, since I'm guessing the Pandemic years are outliers). Singapore is much closer to One Child in practice. Singapore needs constant immigration to stop its population from dropping like a rock. This is good for their economy since they've effectively outsourced many of the costs of raising children to other nations. But I don't know if I'd want to live in a place where raising kids is that difficult.

bobthepanda 5y ago
Keep in mind that China's figures include their rural and minority-heavy regions in the west, which have had higher allowances for children. Shanghai is estimated to have had a 2010 fertility rate of 0.6, according to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Shanghai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Shanghai
- klipt 5y ago
  I always wonder how to interpret fertility rates for cities where people arrive and leave a lot. San Francisco famously has more dogs than children for example. But I also know a lot of people who moved out of San Francisco to somewhere cheaper when they were expecting a baby. I assume this happens less in Singapore because it's a city state, you can't just leave the city without actually emigrating.
  - bobthepanda 5y ago
    At least in China, the land area for cities is quite substantial. Land area of Shanghai is 2448 square miles, so it covers more of the case where people move to outlying neighborhoods for more space, as opposed to San Francisco's 47 square miles.
    - silverpepsi 5y ago
      Basically all Chinese cities are equivalent to US counties. It's not commonly known, but yeah, anything about a Chinese city should be compared to stats about a US Metro Area to make any sense.
      - bobthepanda 5y ago
        The recent megalopolis stuff will also make things more complicated, though I'm unfamiliar with the fares for the regional HSR so I'm not sure that daily commuting from Nanjing to Shanghai actually makes a lick of sense. Even in the US, comparing by counties is dangerous, because counties are not standardized between states. Sometimes cities are contiguous with counties (San Francisco), sometimes they are smaller (Chicago), sometimes they are bigger (New York's 5 boroughs are each a county.)
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    Shanghai would only count those who have hukou (official residence) in the city, everyone else is basically a foreigner. For example if someone from Hunan had a kid in Shanghai, they would have Hunan hukou, not Shanghai hukou, and wouldn’t be counted in their numbers. Migrant workers generally don’t bring their kids/families to these cities however, as they have no right to local public schooling and medical resources, it can be a really difficult life unless you are rich. Likewise, very few people with Shanghai hukou will go somewhere else (it does happen though people), mobility in China is really complicated by the hukou system.
dustintrex 5y ago
Singapore had an official "Stop At Two" policy through the seventies and eighties, although it was nowhere near as strict or coercive as China's. It certainly did work though, it's very unusual to meet Singaporeans with more than 2 kids today.
- thablackbull 5y ago
  What makes it not as coercive? If I'm not allowed to have 2, was it less coercive because there was a way around it or something? > It certainly did work though, it's very unusual to meet Singaporeans with more than 2 kids today. I'd guess the lack of space and longer working hours would be more of a contributor.
  - mtts 5y ago
    In China you were fined when you had more than one child. In Singapore, you were not. It was just a publicity campaign, basically. > I'd guess the lack of space and longer working hours would be more of a contributor. Yup. Also, Singaporeans of Indian and Malay descent have more children than Singaporeans of Chinese descent. Over time this would lead to the ethnic composition of Singapore changing. However, the government has decided the ethnic balance as it was upon independence is sacrosanct, so they hand out permanent residence status to anyone of ethnic Chinese descent that wants it - people from mainland China, mostly.
    - silverpepsi 5y ago
      In china you were more than "fined" Friend's mum was spayed or whatever as punishment for giving birth to twins. Mind you in the 80s they were straight up executing couples who did swinging.
      - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        Enforcement was left up to localities, so was extremely uneven. Fines were more the norm in cities, but you and your spouse could also lose your government aid job (as a guide in Guilin told me she was a teacher before having their second kid, this is well into the 2000s). Usually you wouldn’t be punished for having twins (at least in the cities that is). My wife has friends that are twins, their parents struggled to have even one kid so used fertility drugs (where twins is a more common result).
2muchcoffeeman 5y ago
Are you saying that the low birth rate is due to lack of support for starting a family? I spent a lot of time in Singapore and that didn't seem to be the case and the government website list benefits for people starting families. It's not the best in the world but neither is it bad.
seanmcdirmid 5y ago
Singapore had a two child policy in the 1970s until 1986. The policy was just too successful and the culture never changed back. China is finding similar success that transcends when the policy has officially been ended.
- kwere 5y ago
  source?
caslon 5y ago
The one-child policy ended officially in 2015, and had never really found universal application. There's absolutely no reason why it would have a strong negative influence on China's fertility rate today. What is your point, exactly?
- einszwei 5y ago
  I disagree. China is already seeing very worrying negative effects of one child policy era like extremely skewed sex ratio and very low fertility rates. Both of these were made worse due to One child policy.
  - caslon 5y ago
    1.7 is a solid fertility rate that you would expect for a large, first-world country, not a "very low" one.
    - Laforet 5y ago
      TFR in mainland China is closer to 1.3 according to the 2020 census, and there are plenty of signs pointing to an accelerated decrease for the upcoming decade. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertility-idUSL4N2MY140 https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertili...
      - caslon 5y ago
        The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
        Laforet 5y ago
        Except the worldwide birth rate did not change much in 2020, even for countries severely affected by Covid like US and Brazil. The apparent sharp drop from 1.6 to 1.3 probably had no relation to the pandemic after all.
    - 5y ago
bentkp 5y ago
Singapore most definitely had a policy for two children. There was also heavy state propaganda encouraging family planning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUpaQvaBL1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUpaQvaBL1w Check out this video for an insight into the mindset of 1970's Singapore, via its state media at the time, SBC.

by klipt 5y ago

bobthepanda 5y ago

Keep in mind that China's figures include their rural and minority-heavy regions in the west, which have had higher allowances for children. Shanghai is estimated to have had a 2010 fertility rate of 0.6, according to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Shanghai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Shanghai

klipt 5y ago
I always wonder how to interpret fertility rates for cities where people arrive and leave a lot. San Francisco famously has more dogs than children for example. But I also know a lot of people who moved out of San Francisco to somewhere cheaper when they were expecting a baby. I assume this happens less in Singapore because it's a city state, you can't just leave the city without actually emigrating.
- bobthepanda 5y ago
  At least in China, the land area for cities is quite substantial. Land area of Shanghai is 2448 square miles, so it covers more of the case where people move to outlying neighborhoods for more space, as opposed to San Francisco's 47 square miles.
  - silverpepsi 5y ago
    Basically all Chinese cities are equivalent to US counties. It's not commonly known, but yeah, anything about a Chinese city should be compared to stats about a US Metro Area to make any sense.
    - bobthepanda 5y ago
      The recent megalopolis stuff will also make things more complicated, though I'm unfamiliar with the fares for the regional HSR so I'm not sure that daily commuting from Nanjing to Shanghai actually makes a lick of sense. Even in the US, comparing by counties is dangerous, because counties are not standardized between states. Sometimes cities are contiguous with counties (San Francisco), sometimes they are smaller (Chicago), sometimes they are bigger (New York's 5 boroughs are each a county.)
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  Shanghai would only count those who have hukou (official residence) in the city, everyone else is basically a foreigner. For example if someone from Hunan had a kid in Shanghai, they would have Hunan hukou, not Shanghai hukou, and wouldn’t be counted in their numbers. Migrant workers generally don’t bring their kids/families to these cities however, as they have no right to local public schooling and medical resources, it can be a really difficult life unless you are rich. Likewise, very few people with Shanghai hukou will go somewhere else (it does happen though people), mobility in China is really complicated by the hukou system.

dustintrex 5y ago

Singapore had an official "Stop At Two" policy through the seventies and eighties, although it was nowhere near as strict or coercive as China's. It certainly did work though, it's very unusual to meet Singaporeans with more than 2 kids today.

thablackbull 5y ago
What makes it not as coercive? If I'm not allowed to have 2, was it less coercive because there was a way around it or something? > It certainly did work though, it's very unusual to meet Singaporeans with more than 2 kids today. I'd guess the lack of space and longer working hours would be more of a contributor.
- mtts 5y ago
  In China you were fined when you had more than one child. In Singapore, you were not. It was just a publicity campaign, basically. > I'd guess the lack of space and longer working hours would be more of a contributor. Yup. Also, Singaporeans of Indian and Malay descent have more children than Singaporeans of Chinese descent. Over time this would lead to the ethnic composition of Singapore changing. However, the government has decided the ethnic balance as it was upon independence is sacrosanct, so they hand out permanent residence status to anyone of ethnic Chinese descent that wants it - people from mainland China, mostly.
  - silverpepsi 5y ago
    In china you were more than "fined" Friend's mum was spayed or whatever as punishment for giving birth to twins. Mind you in the 80s they were straight up executing couples who did swinging.
    - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
      Enforcement was left up to localities, so was extremely uneven. Fines were more the norm in cities, but you and your spouse could also lose your government aid job (as a guide in Guilin told me she was a teacher before having their second kid, this is well into the 2000s). Usually you wouldn’t be punished for having twins (at least in the cities that is). My wife has friends that are twins, their parents struggled to have even one kid so used fertility drugs (where twins is a more common result).

2muchcoffeeman 5y ago

Are you saying that the low birth rate is due to lack of support for starting a family? I spent a lot of time in Singapore and that didn't seem to be the case and the government website list benefits for people starting families. It's not the best in the world but neither is it bad.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago

Singapore had a two child policy in the 1970s until 1986. The policy was just too successful and the culture never changed back. China is finding similar success that transcends when the policy has officially been ended.

kwere 5y ago
source?

caslon 5y ago

The one-child policy ended officially in 2015, and had never really found universal application. There's absolutely no reason why it would have a strong negative influence on China's fertility rate today. What is your point, exactly?

einszwei 5y ago
I disagree. China is already seeing very worrying negative effects of one child policy era like extremely skewed sex ratio and very low fertility rates. Both of these were made worse due to One child policy.
- caslon 5y ago
  1.7 is a solid fertility rate that you would expect for a large, first-world country, not a "very low" one.
  - Laforet 5y ago
    TFR in mainland China is closer to 1.3 according to the 2020 census, and there are plenty of signs pointing to an accelerated decrease for the upcoming decade. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertility-idUSL4N2MY140 https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertili...
    - caslon 5y ago
      The OP and I both agree that pandemic years are outliers, which is why we're using the 2019 numbers.
      - Laforet 5y ago
        Except the worldwide birth rate did not change much in 2020, even for countries severely affected by Covid like US and Brazil. The apparent sharp drop from 1.6 to 1.3 probably had no relation to the pandemic after all.
  - 5y ago

bentkp 5y ago

Singapore most definitely had a policy for two children. There was also heavy state propaganda encouraging family planning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUpaQvaBL1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUpaQvaBL1w Check out this video for an insight into the mindset of 1970's Singapore, via its state media at the time, SBC.