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I've seen the theory that the only real endgame for COVID in the face of variants, hesitancy, etc. is a variant that outcompetes others but causes only mild sym
by notacoward 5y ago
I've seen the theory that the only real endgame for COVID in the face of variants, hesitancy, etc. is a variant that outcompetes others but causes only mild symptoms. This would follow the pattern of the 1918 ("Spanish" but should really be "Kansas") flu. I don't want to downplay it, but it almost seems like omicron is a step in that direction. Keeping my fingers crossed, for sure.
- tluyben2 5y agoDo they know how many years from 1918 it took before it got to be the normal (still quite lethal for compromised immune systems) flu?
- notacoward 5y agoThe main part of the pandemic included three waves over almost exactly two years, starting in April 1917. There were "aftershocks" in 1920-21 but those were clearly less virulent strains. OTOH, similar/related H1N1 strains continue to reach concerning levels every few years even today.
- Jansen312 5y agoWe are now slightly over 2 years (if counted with spread starting in Wuhan since early Oct 2019 - or possibily as early as Sep).
- nradov 5y agoInfluenza mutates in ways quite different from coronaviruses so there's no reason to expect that the current pandemic will proceed like the 1918 "Spanish" flu. A better analogy would probably be the 1889 pandemic which is now suspected to have been caused by another coronavirus HCoV-OC43. It probably killed millions worldwide and then the survivors had natural immunity which mostly protected them. Today HCoV-OC43 is still endemic. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ Fortunately we now have vaccines and other treatments which can significantly reduce the death toll.