4 ms·

Plenty of pandemics have come and gone, this one will pass too, and global technology sharing or not will probably have a negligible impact on that timeline. Ho

by creato 5y ago

Plenty of pandemics have come and gone, this one will pass too, and global technology sharing or not will probably have a negligible impact on that timeline. How many times have we seen a region or country held up as a model for success for whatever reason (lockdowns, vaccines, etc.) only to be a hotspot months later? Just get vaccinated, avoid crowded poorly ventilated places, stop trying to herd 7 billion cats, and move on with your life.

BbzzbB 5y ago
>Plenty of pandemics have come and gone Honest question, how does this one go away on the timescale of a few years to a decade (or, worst case in what truly interests us, a generation)? Couldn't seem to find an answer on pubmed or scholar when I looked, I'm jabbed and have been mindful this whole time but my logic tells me that is not happening. We'd have to get it's R0 low enough that it disappears before mutating a variant that escapes immunity (if that is even necessary given the likelihood of impermanent immunity, at least partial). Is that possible barring a new type of vaccine that entirely prevents infection and reinfection for which we'd have to get full planetary coverage of in time?
- nradov 5y ago
  SARS-CoV-2 will never disappear. While the vaccines are pretty good at preventing deaths they don't reliably prevent infection or transmission. Even if we had more effective vaccines, the virus stll spreads and mutates in other animal species. There is no real risk that a new variant will completely evade immunity from previous infections. Nothing is 100%. Over the long run it will probably play out similar to the previous coronavirus pandemic. Fortunately this time we have vaccines and other treatments which can prevent most deaths. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/
didibus 5y ago
> Plenty of pandemics have come and gone, this one will pass too A lot of them lasted for centuries. People would get it and play the lottery, maybe 3 in 10 would die, the rest develop immunity for example. Most pandemics either end because too many people die, and you're only left with the immune survivors, like the plague. Or they end because of improvement to public health and sanitary practices. Vaccines ended smallpox, condoms and awareness reduced AIDS impact, better water sanitization ended cholera, even the plague ended with help by quarantine and lockdowns. I'm not sure how this one will end, but they almost never "just end" magically. Either some level of herd immunity is achieved, for example by having everyone have it very quickly, and being left with only immune survivors, or the spread is contained through public measures, or immunity is achieved through vaccination, or a drug to cure it is found.

by creato 5y ago

BbzzbB 5y ago

>Plenty of pandemics have come and gone Honest question, how does this one go away on the timescale of a few years to a decade (or, worst case in what truly interests us, a generation)? Couldn't seem to find an answer on pubmed or scholar when I looked, I'm jabbed and have been mindful this whole time but my logic tells me that is not happening. We'd have to get it's R0 low enough that it disappears before mutating a variant that escapes immunity (if that is even necessary given the likelihood of impermanent immunity, at least partial). Is that possible barring a new type of vaccine that entirely prevents infection and reinfection for which we'd have to get full planetary coverage of in time?

nradov 5y ago
SARS-CoV-2 will never disappear. While the vaccines are pretty good at preventing deaths they don't reliably prevent infection or transmission. Even if we had more effective vaccines, the virus stll spreads and mutates in other animal species. There is no real risk that a new variant will completely evade immunity from previous infections. Nothing is 100%. Over the long run it will probably play out similar to the previous coronavirus pandemic. Fortunately this time we have vaccines and other treatments which can prevent most deaths. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

didibus 5y ago

> Plenty of pandemics have come and gone, this one will pass too A lot of them lasted for centuries. People would get it and play the lottery, maybe 3 in 10 would die, the rest develop immunity for example. Most pandemics either end because too many people die, and you're only left with the immune survivors, like the plague. Or they end because of improvement to public health and sanitary practices. Vaccines ended smallpox, condoms and awareness reduced AIDS impact, better water sanitization ended cholera, even the plague ended with help by quarantine and lockdowns. I'm not sure how this one will end, but they almost never "just end" magically. Either some level of herd immunity is achieved, for example by having everyone have it very quickly, and being left with only immune survivors, or the spread is contained through public measures, or immunity is achieved through vaccination, or a drug to cure it is found.