4 ms·

Cliff note: wait and see. Transmissibility and/or ability to punch through immunity may be higher. Severity may be lower. We don’t know by how much overall. We

Cliff note: wait and see. Transmissibility and/or ability to punch through immunity may be higher. Severity may be lower. We don’t know by how much overall. We should all be hoping that severity takes a hit.

notacoward 5y ago
I've seen the theory that the only real endgame for COVID in the face of variants, hesitancy, etc. is a variant that outcompetes others but causes only mild symptoms. This would follow the pattern of the 1918 ("Spanish" but should really be "Kansas") flu. I don't want to downplay it, but it almost seems like omicron is a step in that direction. Keeping my fingers crossed, for sure.
- tluyben2 5y ago
  Do they know how many years from 1918 it took before it got to be the normal (still quite lethal for compromised immune systems) flu?
  - notacoward 5y ago
    The main part of the pandemic included three waves over almost exactly two years, starting in April 1917. There were "aftershocks" in 1920-21 but those were clearly less virulent strains. OTOH, similar/related H1N1 strains continue to reach concerning levels every few years even today.
    - Jansen312 5y ago
      We are now slightly over 2 years (if counted with spread starting in Wuhan since early Oct 2019 - or possibily as early as Sep).
- nradov 5y ago
  Influenza mutates in ways quite different from coronaviruses so there's no reason to expect that the current pandemic will proceed like the 1918 "Spanish" flu. A better analogy would probably be the 1889 pandemic which is now suspected to have been caused by another coronavirus HCoV-OC43. It probably killed millions worldwide and then the survivors had natural immunity which mostly protected them. Today HCoV-OC43 is still endemic. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ Fortunately we now have vaccines and other treatments which can significantly reduce the death toll.

notacoward 5y ago

I've seen the theory that the only real endgame for COVID in the face of variants, hesitancy, etc. is a variant that outcompetes others but causes only mild symptoms. This would follow the pattern of the 1918 ("Spanish" but should really be "Kansas") flu. I don't want to downplay it, but it almost seems like omicron is a step in that direction. Keeping my fingers crossed, for sure.

tluyben2 5y ago
Do they know how many years from 1918 it took before it got to be the normal (still quite lethal for compromised immune systems) flu?
- notacoward 5y ago
  The main part of the pandemic included three waves over almost exactly two years, starting in April 1917. There were "aftershocks" in 1920-21 but those were clearly less virulent strains. OTOH, similar/related H1N1 strains continue to reach concerning levels every few years even today.
  - Jansen312 5y ago
    We are now slightly over 2 years (if counted with spread starting in Wuhan since early Oct 2019 - or possibily as early as Sep).
nradov 5y ago
Influenza mutates in ways quite different from coronaviruses so there's no reason to expect that the current pandemic will proceed like the 1918 "Spanish" flu. A better analogy would probably be the 1889 pandemic which is now suspected to have been caused by another coronavirus HCoV-OC43. It probably killed millions worldwide and then the survivors had natural immunity which mostly protected them. Today HCoV-OC43 is still endemic. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ Fortunately we now have vaccines and other treatments which can significantly reduce the death toll.