4 ms·

I can't believe people still think herd immunity is possible. Delta. Omicron. Our technology sucks and is slow, we can't achieve R < 1 this way.

manwe150 5y ago
It can’t be all that bleak. The mRNA technology would let us inject omicron-specific boosters tomorrow, but then there is a lot of other safety hurdles that have to be met before it gets authorized and then distribution hurdles to convince people to take it… Mathematically, we will get to R=1 this way, some day or another, with some percentage of people getting it via illness and some via vaccination. The choice is still ours on how and when.
- disambiguation 5y ago
  Take a look at history to see how bleak it can get. At this point I'm less worried about covid and more worried about the global rise in authoritarian trends.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  At some point the classical ones are available that are not vector or mRNA vaccinations. Although there is still skepticism regarding duration of the protection.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    > At some point the classical ones are available that are not vector or mRNA vaccinations. So you say that at some stage there will be vaccines for COVID-19 that are not nMRA (Pfizer, Moderna) or Viral vector (AstraZeneca) Why? The people who are happy with vaccines are fairly happy with these vaccines and might refine them, but not about to dump them entirely for a different technique. in fact mRNA vaccines are the new hot thing. And the people who really aren't happy with these vaccines, will never be happy. They'll find a way to object. So what's the incentive for such a classical vaccine? Who's going to root for it?
    - raxxorrax 5y ago
      What do you mean? We need better vaccines for any long term strategy.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
        And those will likely also not be "classical vaccines". Moderna and Pfizer (1) and AstraZeneca (2) are getting ready for the next round, still using their current technologies. They're not planning on going back to "classical vaccines" for COVID-19. 1) https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/covid-19-omicron-vaccine-protection-modification-pfizer-biontech/ https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/covid-19-omicron-vaccine-prot... 2) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-oxford-covid-astrazeneca-cnbc-b1966749.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-oxford-covid-a...
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
I can't believe people still think that mass vaccinations is not part of the solution Vaccination is of course imperfect and cannot be the sole measure, but we can't achieve R < 1 without a lot of it.
- account42 5y ago
  > we can't achieve R < 1 without them. So then what happened summer 2020?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    Are you saying that we shouldn't vaccinate, because strict lockdowns worked, against the COVID-19 original strain, for a while? It's technically true that this worked then, but 2020 is gone, not to return. a) new COVID strains were inevitable and b) prolonged strict lockdowns unpalatable and c) mass vaccination has a huge benefit. As part of a multi-pronged strategy, of course. Depending on only one measure, be it lockdown or vaccination, is not going to work.
- disambiguation 5y ago
  I can't believe people still think after 2 years we're at a point technologically and logistically that we can control nature and just make this "go away". Delta came out of India. Omicron came out of South Africa. How do mandates in the West stop variants elsewhere? And variants aside, the vaccinated are still getting sick and dying at significant rates [1]. This vaccine is not the slam-dunk our "experts" promised. Until some miracle cure comes along, R < 1 is simply not possible. If you think full vaccination is a necessary goal despite all this, OK fine. You know what might go a long way in terms of achieving mass vaccination? Open sourcing the vaccine recipe. Not just the RNA sequence. The whole recipe. This should be a no-brainer. Governments have no qualms with mandating lockdowns, masks, and vaccines for the masses.. but for some reason they hit the brakes when it comes to mandates for pharma. Not only is this a good idea in terms of improving supply side logistics, but also for the sake of re-building trust. But no, common sense is too hard and "blame and shame" is too easy. Being unvaccinated does not harm the vaccinated. Hospital collapse has been liminal for 2 years now, it's a manufactured crisis. Instead of bolstering our healthcare staff and paying our front line workers more, we have done.. the exact opposite. We funnel tons of money to pharma, while frontline workers have effectively had their pay cut in half. We're quite literally being force fed lies. But I guess that doesn't matter because at the end of the day the Milgram experiment prevails and all these attempts to question the narrative and hold authority accountable is pointless. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... page 15

manwe150 5y ago

It can’t be all that bleak. The mRNA technology would let us inject omicron-specific boosters tomorrow, but then there is a lot of other safety hurdles that have to be met before it gets authorized and then distribution hurdles to convince people to take it… Mathematically, we will get to R=1 this way, some day or another, with some percentage of people getting it via illness and some via vaccination. The choice is still ours on how and when.

disambiguation 5y ago
Take a look at history to see how bleak it can get. At this point I'm less worried about covid and more worried about the global rise in authoritarian trends.
raxxorrax 5y ago
At some point the classical ones are available that are not vector or mRNA vaccinations. Although there is still skepticism regarding duration of the protection.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > At some point the classical ones are available that are not vector or mRNA vaccinations. So you say that at some stage there will be vaccines for COVID-19 that are not nMRA (Pfizer, Moderna) or Viral vector (AstraZeneca) Why? The people who are happy with vaccines are fairly happy with these vaccines and might refine them, but not about to dump them entirely for a different technique. in fact mRNA vaccines are the new hot thing. And the people who really aren't happy with these vaccines, will never be happy. They'll find a way to object. So what's the incentive for such a classical vaccine? Who's going to root for it?
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    What do you mean? We need better vaccines for any long term strategy.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
      And those will likely also not be "classical vaccines". Moderna and Pfizer (1) and AstraZeneca (2) are getting ready for the next round, still using their current technologies. They're not planning on going back to "classical vaccines" for COVID-19. 1) https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/covid-19-omicron-vaccine-protection-modification-pfizer-biontech/ https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/covid-19-omicron-vaccine-prot... 2) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-oxford-covid-astrazeneca-cnbc-b1966749.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-oxford-covid-a...

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

I can't believe people still think that mass vaccinations is not part of the solution Vaccination is of course imperfect and cannot be the sole measure, but we can't achieve R < 1 without a lot of it.

account42 5y ago
> we can't achieve R < 1 without them. So then what happened summer 2020?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  Are you saying that we shouldn't vaccinate, because strict lockdowns worked, against the COVID-19 original strain, for a while? It's technically true that this worked then, but 2020 is gone, not to return. a) new COVID strains were inevitable and b) prolonged strict lockdowns unpalatable and c) mass vaccination has a huge benefit. As part of a multi-pronged strategy, of course. Depending on only one measure, be it lockdown or vaccination, is not going to work.
disambiguation 5y ago
I can't believe people still think after 2 years we're at a point technologically and logistically that we can control nature and just make this "go away". Delta came out of India. Omicron came out of South Africa. How do mandates in the West stop variants elsewhere? And variants aside, the vaccinated are still getting sick and dying at significant rates [1]. This vaccine is not the slam-dunk our "experts" promised. Until some miracle cure comes along, R < 1 is simply not possible. If you think full vaccination is a necessary goal despite all this, OK fine. You know what might go a long way in terms of achieving mass vaccination? Open sourcing the vaccine recipe. Not just the RNA sequence. The whole recipe. This should be a no-brainer. Governments have no qualms with mandating lockdowns, masks, and vaccines for the masses.. but for some reason they hit the brakes when it comes to mandates for pharma. Not only is this a good idea in terms of improving supply side logistics, but also for the sake of re-building trust. But no, common sense is too hard and "blame and shame" is too easy. Being unvaccinated does not harm the vaccinated. Hospital collapse has been liminal for 2 years now, it's a manufactured crisis. Instead of bolstering our healthcare staff and paying our front line workers more, we have done.. the exact opposite. We funnel tons of money to pharma, while frontline workers have effectively had their pay cut in half. We're quite literally being force fed lies. But I guess that doesn't matter because at the end of the day the Milgram experiment prevails and all these attempts to question the narrative and hold authority accountable is pointless. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... page 15