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>"effective vaccines actually suppress variant formation" is going to get him yelled at for supporting antivaxer arguments, I bet. Are you implying that since

>"effective vaccines actually suppress variant formation" is going to get him yelled at for supporting antivaxer arguments, I bet. Are you implying that since variants exist, then the vaccines aren't effective? That's not what the data shows[1]. I'd point out that South Africa, where the Omicron variant was first characterized, vaccines have only ~30% penetration in the population[0], making it a good reservoir for mutated variants to spread. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations [1] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211123/Systematic-review-finds-COVID-19-vaccine-efficacy-remains-high-for-at-least-six-months.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211123/Systematic-review...

nradov 5y ago
The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. While I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, the vaccines aren't very effective in people with malfunctioning immune systems. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-may-arise-in-people-with-compromised-immune-systems/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...
- mlyle 5y ago
  No, but increased vaccination rates and resultant lower case rates mean the conditions that are ideal for the formation of variants arise less often. (Yes, I know the vaccine isn't completely sterilizing, but it still has significantly tamped down the degree of spread).
- metamet 5y ago
  > While I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, the vaccines aren't very effective in people with malfunctioning immune systems. Isn't the fact that folks with malfunctioning immune systems are surviving rather than dying evidence that the vaccine is working? Granted, their survival has the side effect of a prolonged infection, but immunocompromised folks don't fare well against COVID.
- nobody9999 5y ago
  >The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. A very good point. At the same time, in areas where vaccination rates are low, more folks are infected and a larger proportion of the immunocompromised (as well as the at-large) population will likely be infected. Making places like South Africa, with less than 1/3 of the population vaccinated, more likely to be reservoirs for the virus, increasing the likelihood of both more variants and an easier foothold for those variants to have their initial spread.
  - nradov 5y ago
    In the long run everyone including the immunocompromised population will likely be infected. I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, however there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect those who lack immunity. There may be some benefit to slowing this down however it can't be prevented. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
    - nobody9999 5y ago
      >In the long run everyone including the immunocompromised population will likely be infected. That's as may be. But it's orthogonal to my point.

nradov 5y ago

The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. While I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, the vaccines aren't very effective in people with malfunctioning immune systems. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-may-arise-in-people-with-compromised-immune-systems/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...

mlyle 5y ago
No, but increased vaccination rates and resultant lower case rates mean the conditions that are ideal for the formation of variants arise less often. (Yes, I know the vaccine isn't completely sterilizing, but it still has significantly tamped down the degree of spread).
metamet 5y ago
> While I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, the vaccines aren't very effective in people with malfunctioning immune systems. Isn't the fact that folks with malfunctioning immune systems are surviving rather than dying evidence that the vaccine is working? Granted, their survival has the side effect of a prolonged infection, but immunocompromised folks don't fare well against COVID.
nobody9999 5y ago
>The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. A very good point. At the same time, in areas where vaccination rates are low, more folks are infected and a larger proportion of the immunocompromised (as well as the at-large) population will likely be infected. Making places like South Africa, with less than 1/3 of the population vaccinated, more likely to be reservoirs for the virus, increasing the likelihood of both more variants and an easier foothold for those variants to have their initial spread.
- nradov 5y ago
  In the long run everyone including the immunocompromised population will likely be infected. I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, however there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect those who lack immunity. There may be some benefit to slowing this down however it can't be prevented. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
  - nobody9999 5y ago
    >In the long run everyone including the immunocompromised population will likely be infected. That's as may be. But it's orthogonal to my point.