5 ms·

One thing I don't see being talked about is how virulent (rapid onset of severe illness) omicron is. The rate of spread isn't the only element. The viruses that

by mfer 5y ago

One thing I don't see being talked about is how virulent (rapid onset of severe illness) omicron is. The rate of spread isn't the only element. The viruses that are the common cold spread wildly but don't cause major issues for most people. Why don't we talk about this more?

nradov 5y ago
There are several other endemic human coronaviruses like HCoV-OC43 which cause common cold symptoms. Most of us catch them as youths and the resulting natural immunity protects us from severe symptoms during later reinfections. However they can still be deadly to frail and immunocompromised patients. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/
JamesBarney 5y ago
I see discussions of this all the time around Omicron, the problem is we have no idea how virulent Omicron is. The attributes we care about are immune evasion, transmissibility, severity. We know the most about immune evasion, we have a little data on transmissibility, but we know didly squat about severity. People aren't talking about it much because we don't even have a bad guess about severity, much less a good guess. It'll takes a while to figure out severity. Deaths happen 2-8 weeks after symptoms. Which means we're still probably several weeks before we have any good data on severity. And this data is still really hard to parse out especially with immune evasion which makes the average case more mild, even if the disease is more virulent.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  Median time to death from onset of symptoms ~18.5 days: https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/ https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-prog... Median time for first symptoms is ~4.5 days: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida... Within a week, we should start to have a decent picture WRT severity. Obviously, as time goes by, that picture will only get clearer.
pwned1 5y ago
Because the media/political narrative is to sustain continual panic. If you state that "the new strain is more contagious but the symptoms are basically the same as a common cold" then the panic will subside. Be we immediately saw even greater panic and now even more "containment" actions that further disrupt society. Despite there being no evidence that it's more virulent. In fact, the evidence seems to be that it's much less virulent. If this new strain is basically a common cold, then it's in our best interest for it to spread as quickly as possible. And that's normally what viruses do, they get less virulent. The vaccines have obviously failed at slowing the spread and have put evolutionary pressure on the virus to evade the very specific spike protein that the vaccines contain. If we all get broader protection, then this thing will be over without the need for liberty-crippling mandates. Instead, it's almost impossible to get any sort of sober analysis of how this variant's symptoms differ from other variants.
- michaelmrose 5y ago
  While data is lacking, there is absolutely no reason to suppose that the symptoms are the same as the common cold for the unvaccinated. Vaccines have both reduced spread and more importantly yet reduced deaths. The strategy moving forward is to both continue to press the vaccination strategy as well as mass manufacture new antivirals so we can save as many of those too short sighted to vaccinate despite themselves. It's also liable that we will be stuck with another shot in 2022. The strategy of just let it wash over us so we can get back to normal is not quite as horrifying as it was in 2020 when it meant hundreds of millions of damaged bodies and 3 million dead but it remains ridiculous. The unvaccinated who are liable to experience something no better than earlier strains aren't evenly distributed and areas where they are concentrated are especially vulnerable to their health care systems being overwhelmed but the truth is even in areas where ONLY 1 in 3 is unvaccinated we don't have the capacity for much of the population to linger in the hospital for weeks or months before deciding whether to die or not. We don't have enough antivirals manufactured yet nor do we know the long term outlook of survivors even after we can manufacture more. We don't even know if they will be as effective with the new strain! We don't have such a healthy economy that we can afford to go through another covid induced slump and believe me if deaths and illness start going up we will have another big ass slump whether an official lock down is declared or not. For at least 2022 covid is going to be a substantial workplace hazard and it is absolutely reasonable that if someone gets sick at work and experiences substantial costs, disability, or death they treat it just like a workplace accident and if we do that then mandates become the only tenable option to reduce liability and OSHA will be only a convenient excuse for your employer is in fact doing to cover their own asses. From the perspective of a worker why should I work at a place that wont even make you get a shot so you don't murder me. It seems to me a lot like letting you drive the forklift drunk an entirely unnecessary risk. It's a sellers market and I can sell my labor elsewhere.

by mfer 5y ago

nradov 5y ago

There are several other endemic human coronaviruses like HCoV-OC43 which cause common cold symptoms. Most of us catch them as youths and the resulting natural immunity protects us from severe symptoms during later reinfections. However they can still be deadly to frail and immunocompromised patients. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

JamesBarney 5y ago

I see discussions of this all the time around Omicron, the problem is we have no idea how virulent Omicron is. The attributes we care about are immune evasion, transmissibility, severity. We know the most about immune evasion, we have a little data on transmissibility, but we know didly squat about severity. People aren't talking about it much because we don't even have a bad guess about severity, much less a good guess. It'll takes a while to figure out severity. Deaths happen 2-8 weeks after symptoms. Which means we're still probably several weeks before we have any good data on severity. And this data is still really hard to parse out especially with immune evasion which makes the average case more mild, even if the disease is more virulent.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Median time to death from onset of symptoms ~18.5 days: https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/ https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-prog... Median time for first symptoms is ~4.5 days: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida... Within a week, we should start to have a decent picture WRT severity. Obviously, as time goes by, that picture will only get clearer.

pwned1 5y ago

Because the media/political narrative is to sustain continual panic. If you state that "the new strain is more contagious but the symptoms are basically the same as a common cold" then the panic will subside. Be we immediately saw even greater panic and now even more "containment" actions that further disrupt society. Despite there being no evidence that it's more virulent. In fact, the evidence seems to be that it's much less virulent. If this new strain is basically a common cold, then it's in our best interest for it to spread as quickly as possible. And that's normally what viruses do, they get less virulent. The vaccines have obviously failed at slowing the spread and have put evolutionary pressure on the virus to evade the very specific spike protein that the vaccines contain. If we all get broader protection, then this thing will be over without the need for liberty-crippling mandates. Instead, it's almost impossible to get any sort of sober analysis of how this variant's symptoms differ from other variants.

michaelmrose 5y ago
While data is lacking, there is absolutely no reason to suppose that the symptoms are the same as the common cold for the unvaccinated. Vaccines have both reduced spread and more importantly yet reduced deaths. The strategy moving forward is to both continue to press the vaccination strategy as well as mass manufacture new antivirals so we can save as many of those too short sighted to vaccinate despite themselves. It's also liable that we will be stuck with another shot in 2022. The strategy of just let it wash over us so we can get back to normal is not quite as horrifying as it was in 2020 when it meant hundreds of millions of damaged bodies and 3 million dead but it remains ridiculous. The unvaccinated who are liable to experience something no better than earlier strains aren't evenly distributed and areas where they are concentrated are especially vulnerable to their health care systems being overwhelmed but the truth is even in areas where ONLY 1 in 3 is unvaccinated we don't have the capacity for much of the population to linger in the hospital for weeks or months before deciding whether to die or not. We don't have enough antivirals manufactured yet nor do we know the long term outlook of survivors even after we can manufacture more. We don't even know if they will be as effective with the new strain! We don't have such a healthy economy that we can afford to go through another covid induced slump and believe me if deaths and illness start going up we will have another big ass slump whether an official lock down is declared or not. For at least 2022 covid is going to be a substantial workplace hazard and it is absolutely reasonable that if someone gets sick at work and experiences substantial costs, disability, or death they treat it just like a workplace accident and if we do that then mandates become the only tenable option to reduce liability and OSHA will be only a convenient excuse for your employer is in fact doing to cover their own asses. From the perspective of a worker why should I work at a place that wont even make you get a shot so you don't murder me. It seems to me a lot like letting you drive the forklift drunk an entirely unnecessary risk. It's a sellers market and I can sell my labor elsewhere.