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> This is a small step in the right direction but California has really dug themselves into a hole here. California needs whole apartment blocks, not just duple

by danans 5y ago

> This is a small step in the right direction but California has really dug themselves into a hole here. California needs whole apartment blocks, not just duplexes, but apartments is something that is likely to never happen because of the above issue where no one will vote against their self interest Incremental upzoning is what will get us there. So changing single family zoning to duplex zoning like what this does, and current multifamily zoning to much higher density zoning. Going from single family to high-density apartments zoning overnight will cause a great deal of chaos, both in land valuation and also in political distrust. California has actually built a huge number of apartment blocks in areas already zoned for that type of housing, and those have been providing most of the new housing supply in the state. Such places have picked up the slack for lower density places where exclusionary zoning has prevented higher density. But housing has to be built in a wider array of formats because not everyone wants to live in a large apartment block. Today, even in urban California huge areas have single homes on large lots that should have the option of being converted to townhouses or multifamily dwellings. A lot of people (even families) would enjoy and even prefer townhouse style living.

alistairSH 5y ago
Incremental upzoning is what will get us there. This. It's been relatively successful (in terms of units built) in Northern VA. All along the Metro rail through Arlington and Fairfax Counties, we've changed zoning to allow dense multi-use development. Courthouse, Clarendon, and Ballston in Arlington were heavily redeveloped in the 90s and 00s. And Reston and Herndon's Transit Oriented Development Zones have been underway for 5-10 years and will continue for another decade. Definitely not a cure-all, but a step in the right direction. At least there's office, retail, dining, and residential all on the same plot, which beats the previous massive parking lots and mid-rise office space.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  With better zoning, has Northern VA become more affordable? Or has it just become more popular?
  - alistairSH 5y ago
    Impossible to say - too complex to figure that out. You are correct that demand has grown faster than supply, so in aggregate, housing prices have continued to rise. But, we have mixed-use where single-use/non-residential existed previously, so relatively speaking, we're better off (in terms of total housing units). And in terms of economic activity, those zones all appear to be successful. EDIT - Also worth nothing the zoning changes are pretty limited - within a few city blocks of the metro stations. They make a good PoC for changes, but expanding them beyond their current boundaries will run into the same NIMBY issues we see across the large cities in CA.
  - danans 5y ago
    The DC area has a better affordability ratio than most major US metro areas: https://infogram.com/q2-2021-affordability-table-1ho16vogzgowx4n?live https://infogram.com/q2-2021-affordability-table-1ho16vogzgo... That's pretty remarkable given its stature as a center of world power and influence. That data doesn't answer the question about trajectory, though, which is what you asked. I can't find a graph that plots this stuff over time by metro, but it would be interesting to see no doubt.
usrusr 5y ago
Sorry for being so ignorant about particularities of American zoning (I hardly know more than what you pick up playing the original Sim City): could it be easier to shift commercial to high density residential? Of course the general threat to owners would still be there, "if we solve the housing crisis my Prophet might stop appreciating like mad". But that's true for any approach short of an October 1917 reenactment. And are commercial acres actually valued higher than residential across all density ranges? If not, would regulation actually prevent repurposing? If only the latter was true I'd expect The Most American Thing to happen, finger to regulation in the shape of habitation-as-a-service companies (long term lease disguised as hotels) gobbling up unprofitable locations left and right. Call the company Beanberia if you feel particularly uncreative.
- kenhwang 5y ago
  From what I can see, many cities are much more open to commercial zones being rezoned to high density mixed-use. There's quite a lot of empty strip malls and big box retailer spaces these days. Nearby businesses don't mind the change in zoning since it brings in a reliable customer base, and it's easier attracting people to live there since its conveniently located near shopping.
- danans 5y ago
  > could it be easier to shift commercial to high density residential? In some places it's possible, as long as the commercial spaces naturally lend themselves to residential occupation, or in places with enough demand to justify the costs of tearing down existing commercial spaces and building residential structures. But most unused (therefore in theory available) American commercial space isn't comprised of smaller 19th century brick warehouses that you can convert into chic lofts. Rather, it's more like abandoned or underutilized suburban shopping malls that can't be easily repurposed into housing. The most basic issue is that these buildings don't have many exterior windows. After all, in an indoor shopping mall, the whole point generally is to create an environment that isolates you from the outdoors by keeping it at a large distance. Apartment buildings need to keep more access to the outdoors, both for light and ventilation reasons.
  - 5y ago

by danans 5y ago

alistairSH 5y ago

Incremental upzoning is what will get us there. This. It's been relatively successful (in terms of units built) in Northern VA. All along the Metro rail through Arlington and Fairfax Counties, we've changed zoning to allow dense multi-use development. Courthouse, Clarendon, and Ballston in Arlington were heavily redeveloped in the 90s and 00s. And Reston and Herndon's Transit Oriented Development Zones have been underway for 5-10 years and will continue for another decade. Definitely not a cure-all, but a step in the right direction. At least there's office, retail, dining, and residential all on the same plot, which beats the previous massive parking lots and mid-rise office space.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
With better zoning, has Northern VA become more affordable? Or has it just become more popular?
- alistairSH 5y ago
  Impossible to say - too complex to figure that out. You are correct that demand has grown faster than supply, so in aggregate, housing prices have continued to rise. But, we have mixed-use where single-use/non-residential existed previously, so relatively speaking, we're better off (in terms of total housing units). And in terms of economic activity, those zones all appear to be successful. EDIT - Also worth nothing the zoning changes are pretty limited - within a few city blocks of the metro stations. They make a good PoC for changes, but expanding them beyond their current boundaries will run into the same NIMBY issues we see across the large cities in CA.
- danans 5y ago
  The DC area has a better affordability ratio than most major US metro areas: https://infogram.com/q2-2021-affordability-table-1ho16vogzgowx4n?live https://infogram.com/q2-2021-affordability-table-1ho16vogzgo... That's pretty remarkable given its stature as a center of world power and influence. That data doesn't answer the question about trajectory, though, which is what you asked. I can't find a graph that plots this stuff over time by metro, but it would be interesting to see no doubt.

usrusr 5y ago

Sorry for being so ignorant about particularities of American zoning (I hardly know more than what you pick up playing the original Sim City): could it be easier to shift commercial to high density residential? Of course the general threat to owners would still be there, "if we solve the housing crisis my Prophet might stop appreciating like mad". But that's true for any approach short of an October 1917 reenactment. And are commercial acres actually valued higher than residential across all density ranges? If not, would regulation actually prevent repurposing? If only the latter was true I'd expect The Most American Thing to happen, finger to regulation in the shape of habitation-as-a-service companies (long term lease disguised as hotels) gobbling up unprofitable locations left and right. Call the company Beanberia if you feel particularly uncreative.

kenhwang 5y ago
From what I can see, many cities are much more open to commercial zones being rezoned to high density mixed-use. There's quite a lot of empty strip malls and big box retailer spaces these days. Nearby businesses don't mind the change in zoning since it brings in a reliable customer base, and it's easier attracting people to live there since its conveniently located near shopping.
danans 5y ago
> could it be easier to shift commercial to high density residential? In some places it's possible, as long as the commercial spaces naturally lend themselves to residential occupation, or in places with enough demand to justify the costs of tearing down existing commercial spaces and building residential structures. But most unused (therefore in theory available) American commercial space isn't comprised of smaller 19th century brick warehouses that you can convert into chic lofts. Rather, it's more like abandoned or underutilized suburban shopping malls that can't be easily repurposed into housing. The most basic issue is that these buildings don't have many exterior windows. After all, in an indoor shopping mall, the whole point generally is to create an environment that isolates you from the outdoors by keeping it at a large distance. Apartment buildings need to keep more access to the outdoors, both for light and ventilation reasons.
- 5y ago