5 ms·

At the current pace, it would take China 50 years to catch up in semi-conductors. It won't happen unless they seize Taiwan and its tech with it, or leapfrog the

by Bayart 5y ago

At the current pace, it would take China 50 years to catch up in semi-conductors. It won't happen unless they seize Taiwan and its tech with it, or leapfrog the rest with a completely different tech.

Teever 5y ago
Where do you get 50 years from? If we take that number literally than you seem to be implying that China is 50 years behind in semiconductors which would pit their feature size in the micron range or about comparable to what Sam Zeloof is doing in his home lab.
- imtringued 5y ago
  No he means that China won't have the state of the art technology in 50 years. They will be behind a few generations.
- Bayart 5y ago
  They're not fifty years behind, they're a bit over a decade behind. And they're pacing to catch up two years of lag every ten years.
imtringued 5y ago
Yeah in 50 years we will have developed 0.00001nm technology while China is stuck with 0.001nm tech. These fools never learn.
- anshumankmr 5y ago
  I think we will be limited by the size of the silicon atom. As far as I remember, 0.00001 nm is actually smaller than a silicon atom which is about 0.2 nm in size. https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-make-transistors-but-the-solution-is-photonic-chips/ https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-mak...
  - lodi 5y ago
    Here's an analogy: octane rating is "that level of knock-resistance that matches an N% mix of octane and heptane"; a 90% octane, 10% heptane mixture has an octane rating of 90. So how can racing fuels exceed 100 octane? Well the underlying technology has changed--they use additives that exceed the anti-knock properties of octane--but measure the benefit on the old scale. The situation with photolithography is similar. At some point there was a N-micrometer process where transistor features actually had an N-micrometer size. Now we have 3nm processes where all the feature sizes are 40nm+, but it's called "3nm" because the new FinFET, GAA, etc. transistors produce the same results as what the old transistor tech would if it could be scaled down to legitimate 3nm sizes. So I have no doubt we'll eventually have "picometer" processes where all of the physical characteristics are still solidly in the nanometer range but they'll use something like 3d transistors to deliver densities comparable to what a hypothetical "0.01pm" process could deliver using flat FinFETs.
- 10000truths 5y ago
  I can already see it: the US's state-of-the-art reconnaissance tardigrades will get outfitted with Zen 53 EPYCs, while China's fruit fly drones languish behind with their last-gen Xeon knockoff implants.

by Bayart 5y ago

At the current pace, it would take China 50 years to catch up in semi-conductors. It won't happen unless they seize Taiwan and its tech with it, or leapfrog the rest with a completely different tech.

Teever 5y ago

Where do you get 50 years from? If we take that number literally than you seem to be implying that China is 50 years behind in semiconductors which would pit their feature size in the micron range or about comparable to what Sam Zeloof is doing in his home lab.

imtringued 5y ago
No he means that China won't have the state of the art technology in 50 years. They will be behind a few generations.
Bayart 5y ago
They're not fifty years behind, they're a bit over a decade behind. And they're pacing to catch up two years of lag every ten years.

imtringued 5y ago

Yeah in 50 years we will have developed 0.00001nm technology while China is stuck with 0.001nm tech. These fools never learn.

anshumankmr 5y ago
I think we will be limited by the size of the silicon atom. As far as I remember, 0.00001 nm is actually smaller than a silicon atom which is about 0.2 nm in size. https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-make-transistors-but-the-solution-is-photonic-chips/ https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-mak...
- lodi 5y ago
  Here's an analogy: octane rating is "that level of knock-resistance that matches an N% mix of octane and heptane"; a 90% octane, 10% heptane mixture has an octane rating of 90. So how can racing fuels exceed 100 octane? Well the underlying technology has changed--they use additives that exceed the anti-knock properties of octane--but measure the benefit on the old scale. The situation with photolithography is similar. At some point there was a N-micrometer process where transistor features actually had an N-micrometer size. Now we have 3nm processes where all the feature sizes are 40nm+, but it's called "3nm" because the new FinFET, GAA, etc. transistors produce the same results as what the old transistor tech would if it could be scaled down to legitimate 3nm sizes. So I have no doubt we'll eventually have "picometer" processes where all of the physical characteristics are still solidly in the nanometer range but they'll use something like 3d transistors to deliver densities comparable to what a hypothetical "0.01pm" process could deliver using flat FinFETs.
10000truths 5y ago
I can already see it: the US's state-of-the-art reconnaissance tardigrades will get outfitted with Zen 53 EPYCs, while China's fruit fly drones languish behind with their last-gen Xeon knockoff implants.