5 ms·

People who think that are thinking about "all in war, people running with guns everywhere". Even in WW2 that was not the case, there were huge swats of land wh

by ozim 5y ago

People who think that are thinking about "all in war, people running with guns everywhere". Even in WW2 that was not the case, there were huge swats of land where people were living as if there was nothing going on. US is already at war with China on the trade. There is full blown cyberspace and intelligence war going right now. So that you are not running twice a day to a shelter does not indicate there is no war.

DeathArrow 5y ago
That war will only last until China will recover in areas they are behind US, such as in semiconductors. After that China can kill US tech sector by selling at below the cost. I think that in 10 years we can reach that point.
- Bayart 5y ago
  At the current pace, it would take China 50 years to catch up in semi-conductors. It won't happen unless they seize Taiwan and its tech with it, or leapfrog the rest with a completely different tech.
  - Teever 5y ago
    Where do you get 50 years from? If we take that number literally than you seem to be implying that China is 50 years behind in semiconductors which would pit their feature size in the micron range or about comparable to what Sam Zeloof is doing in his home lab.
    - imtringued 5y ago
      No he means that China won't have the state of the art technology in 50 years. They will be behind a few generations.
    - Bayart 5y ago
      They're not fifty years behind, they're a bit over a decade behind. And they're pacing to catch up two years of lag every ten years.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    Yeah in 50 years we will have developed 0.00001nm technology while China is stuck with 0.001nm tech. These fools never learn.
    - anshumankmr 5y ago
      I think we will be limited by the size of the silicon atom. As far as I remember, 0.00001 nm is actually smaller than a silicon atom which is about 0.2 nm in size. https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-make-transistors-but-the-solution-is-photonic-chips/ https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-mak...
      - lodi 5y ago
        Here's an analogy: octane rating is "that level of knock-resistance that matches an N% mix of octane and heptane"; a 90% octane, 10% heptane mixture has an octane rating of 90. So how can racing fuels exceed 100 octane? Well the underlying technology has changed--they use additives that exceed the anti-knock properties of octane--but measure the benefit on the old scale. The situation with photolithography is similar. At some point there was a N-micrometer process where transistor features actually had an N-micrometer size. Now we have 3nm processes where all the feature sizes are 40nm+, but it's called "3nm" because the new FinFET, GAA, etc. transistors produce the same results as what the old transistor tech would if it could be scaled down to legitimate 3nm sizes. So I have no doubt we'll eventually have "picometer" processes where all of the physical characteristics are still solidly in the nanometer range but they'll use something like 3d transistors to deliver densities comparable to what a hypothetical "0.01pm" process could deliver using flat FinFETs.
    - 10000truths 5y ago
      I can already see it: the US's state-of-the-art reconnaissance tardigrades will get outfitted with Zen 53 EPYCs, while China's fruit fly drones languish behind with their last-gen Xeon knockoff implants.
OJFord 5y ago
> Even in WW2 that was not the case, there were huge swats of land where people were living as if there was nothing going on. Isn't that overstating it? I'm aware of swathes without fighting, but wasn't trade pretty disrupted? Wasn't it pretty apparent in port towns if not elsewhere?
- emteycz 5y ago
  Yeah but isn't there much more inland towns than port towns? Even here in the Czechoslovak Republic many people did not believe there is too much going on until Hitler rolled through the borders despite the state being right next to all the initial warring states, and even then many did not believe there are any atrocities committed for many years... And then the biggest initial change for many people was that they needed to convert their cars to wood fuel.
- Nasrudith 5y ago
  Ports were plenty active - that is precisely what the navies were so occupied with and that induced its own demands for support as well. Viewing it as a lasting trade isolation would be inaccurate - Japan and Germany were allies but they did not share the same battlefields even though both fought against the US and USSR. Single town level can support at very best a rough age of sale technology level and even then almost certainly no bronze.
  - OJFord 5y ago
    Yes I didn't mean that they were inactive - I meant that it was more apparent there than inland perhaps.
pbaka 5y ago
> there were huge swaths of land where nothing living was going on. FTFY, as somebody from Eastern Europe
mannykannot 5y ago
Generalizing "war" to mean "competition" robs it of any independent meaning - and once you have done that, you need another word or term to use whenever you need to refer to what "war" actually means.
- ozim 5y ago
  This competition will mean the same for me as for people in the places where active war was not fought. I will have problem getting most of the goods, probably will have to pay a lot more for basic utilities. Life might get overall harder, if this competition escalates, even though there might be not a single bullet fired. We had "cold war" earlier, now it was "crawling war" in a lot of places.

by ozim 5y ago

DeathArrow 5y ago

That war will only last until China will recover in areas they are behind US, such as in semiconductors. After that China can kill US tech sector by selling at below the cost. I think that in 10 years we can reach that point.

Bayart 5y ago
At the current pace, it would take China 50 years to catch up in semi-conductors. It won't happen unless they seize Taiwan and its tech with it, or leapfrog the rest with a completely different tech.
- Teever 5y ago
  Where do you get 50 years from? If we take that number literally than you seem to be implying that China is 50 years behind in semiconductors which would pit their feature size in the micron range or about comparable to what Sam Zeloof is doing in his home lab.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    No he means that China won't have the state of the art technology in 50 years. They will be behind a few generations.
  - Bayart 5y ago
    They're not fifty years behind, they're a bit over a decade behind. And they're pacing to catch up two years of lag every ten years.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Yeah in 50 years we will have developed 0.00001nm technology while China is stuck with 0.001nm tech. These fools never learn.
  - anshumankmr 5y ago
    I think we will be limited by the size of the silicon atom. As far as I remember, 0.00001 nm is actually smaller than a silicon atom which is about 0.2 nm in size. https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-make-transistors-but-the-solution-is-photonic-chips/ https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-mak...
    - lodi 5y ago
      Here's an analogy: octane rating is "that level of knock-resistance that matches an N% mix of octane and heptane"; a 90% octane, 10% heptane mixture has an octane rating of 90. So how can racing fuels exceed 100 octane? Well the underlying technology has changed--they use additives that exceed the anti-knock properties of octane--but measure the benefit on the old scale. The situation with photolithography is similar. At some point there was a N-micrometer process where transistor features actually had an N-micrometer size. Now we have 3nm processes where all the feature sizes are 40nm+, but it's called "3nm" because the new FinFET, GAA, etc. transistors produce the same results as what the old transistor tech would if it could be scaled down to legitimate 3nm sizes. So I have no doubt we'll eventually have "picometer" processes where all of the physical characteristics are still solidly in the nanometer range but they'll use something like 3d transistors to deliver densities comparable to what a hypothetical "0.01pm" process could deliver using flat FinFETs.
  - 10000truths 5y ago
    I can already see it: the US's state-of-the-art reconnaissance tardigrades will get outfitted with Zen 53 EPYCs, while China's fruit fly drones languish behind with their last-gen Xeon knockoff implants.

OJFord 5y ago

> Even in WW2 that was not the case, there were huge swats of land where people were living as if there was nothing going on. Isn't that overstating it? I'm aware of swathes without fighting, but wasn't trade pretty disrupted? Wasn't it pretty apparent in port towns if not elsewhere?

emteycz 5y ago
Yeah but isn't there much more inland towns than port towns? Even here in the Czechoslovak Republic many people did not believe there is too much going on until Hitler rolled through the borders despite the state being right next to all the initial warring states, and even then many did not believe there are any atrocities committed for many years... And then the biggest initial change for many people was that they needed to convert their cars to wood fuel.
Nasrudith 5y ago
Ports were plenty active - that is precisely what the navies were so occupied with and that induced its own demands for support as well. Viewing it as a lasting trade isolation would be inaccurate - Japan and Germany were allies but they did not share the same battlefields even though both fought against the US and USSR. Single town level can support at very best a rough age of sale technology level and even then almost certainly no bronze.
- OJFord 5y ago
  Yes I didn't mean that they were inactive - I meant that it was more apparent there than inland perhaps.

pbaka 5y ago

> there were huge swaths of land where nothing living was going on. FTFY, as somebody from Eastern Europe

mannykannot 5y ago

Generalizing "war" to mean "competition" robs it of any independent meaning - and once you have done that, you need another word or term to use whenever you need to refer to what "war" actually means.

ozim 5y ago
This competition will mean the same for me as for people in the places where active war was not fought. I will have problem getting most of the goods, probably will have to pay a lot more for basic utilities. Life might get overall harder, if this competition escalates, even though there might be not a single bullet fired. We had "cold war" earlier, now it was "crawling war" in a lot of places.