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Makes me cringe a little bit when global warming presentations start out with a co2 vs global temperature chart. Especially if that forms the entire basis of th

Makes me cringe a little bit when global warming presentations start out with a co2 vs global temperature chart. Especially if that forms the entire basis of the analytic part of the presentation. Because I know someone (most) is just thinking "correlation != causation" and dismissing the entire thing.

ctdonath 5y ago
Yes; interesting that they never bring up the chart showing we’re at the peak of a natural 125,000 year temperature cycle.
- everybodyknows 5y ago
  Source? The long temperature graphs I've seen look quite irregular, rather than cyclical.
  - morsch 5y ago
    Here's the smoking gun graph he's hosting: http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG This is what he's talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Here's a graph similar to his, hosted on German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/Datei:Milankovic-Zyklen_2017_(cropped).jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/... Nobody brings it up, because scientists don't believe the observed changes in temperatures are due to Milankovitch cycles, since global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia. Here's NASA's take: https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovi...
    - yobbo 5y ago
      > global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia How do we know that temperatures inferred from ice-cores (or whatever) are not extremely smoothed due to natural phenomena? Can we really get resolution down to individual years such that they agree across different test sites and methods?
    - raxxorrax 5y ago
      Scaling the time axis sensibly will quickly reveal that the rising temperature and this cycle cannot explain the rise we see. There are certainly overlapping effects, but the model would fail to predict temperatures.
- missblit 5y ago
  Well for one thing we don't have tens of thousands of years to wait for a natural ice age to counteract industrial warming that has happened within the past century or two.
raxxorrax 5y ago
But in this example we know that there indeed is a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature. Of course you cannot restrict your argument to that, but at some point you start with some axioms.

ctdonath 5y ago

Yes; interesting that they never bring up the chart showing we’re at the peak of a natural 125,000 year temperature cycle.

everybodyknows 5y ago
Source? The long temperature graphs I've seen look quite irregular, rather than cyclical.
- morsch 5y ago
  Here's the smoking gun graph he's hosting: http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG This is what he's talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Here's a graph similar to his, hosted on German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/Datei:Milankovic-Zyklen_2017_(cropped).jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/... Nobody brings it up, because scientists don't believe the observed changes in temperatures are due to Milankovitch cycles, since global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia. Here's NASA's take: https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovi...
  - yobbo 5y ago
    > global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia How do we know that temperatures inferred from ice-cores (or whatever) are not extremely smoothed due to natural phenomena? Can we really get resolution down to individual years such that they agree across different test sites and methods?
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Scaling the time axis sensibly will quickly reveal that the rising temperature and this cycle cannot explain the rise we see. There are certainly overlapping effects, but the model would fail to predict temperatures.
missblit 5y ago
Well for one thing we don't have tens of thousands of years to wait for a natural ice age to counteract industrial warming that has happened within the past century or two.

raxxorrax 5y ago

But in this example we know that there indeed is a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature. Of course you cannot restrict your argument to that, but at some point you start with some axioms.