4 ms·

Nice example of 'correlation does not imply causation' and if you submit this kinda thing to me in my data analysis class I'll fail you.

by nanna 5y ago

tejohnso 5y ago
Makes me cringe a little bit when global warming presentations start out with a co2 vs global temperature chart. Especially if that forms the entire basis of the analytic part of the presentation. Because I know someone (most) is just thinking "correlation != causation" and dismissing the entire thing.
- ctdonath 5y ago
  Yes; interesting that they never bring up the chart showing we’re at the peak of a natural 125,000 year temperature cycle.
  - everybodyknows 5y ago
    Source? The long temperature graphs I've seen look quite irregular, rather than cyclical.
    - morsch 5y ago
      Here's the smoking gun graph he's hosting: http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG This is what he's talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Here's a graph similar to his, hosted on German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/Datei:Milankovic-Zyklen_2017_(cropped).jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/... Nobody brings it up, because scientists don't believe the observed changes in temperatures are due to Milankovitch cycles, since global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia. Here's NASA's take: https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovi...
      - yobbo 5y ago
        > global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia How do we know that temperatures inferred from ice-cores (or whatever) are not extremely smoothed due to natural phenomena? Can we really get resolution down to individual years such that they agree across different test sites and methods?
      - raxxorrax 5y ago
        Scaling the time axis sensibly will quickly reveal that the rising temperature and this cycle cannot explain the rise we see. There are certainly overlapping effects, but the model would fail to predict temperatures.
  - missblit 5y ago
    Well for one thing we don't have tens of thousands of years to wait for a natural ice age to counteract industrial warming that has happened within the past century or two.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  But in this example we know that there indeed is a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature. Of course you cannot restrict your argument to that, but at some point you start with some axioms.
Ginden 5y ago
But if you submit that to scientifical journal it will be published. ;)
- cronix 5y ago
  It worked for Hitler's Mein Kampf by just changing a few words using "feminist" language, and even won some special recognition from the publishers. > Boghossian, Lindsay, and Pluckrose wrote 20 articles that promoted deliberately absurd ideas or morally questionable acts and submitted them to various peer-reviewed journals. Although they had planned for the project to run until January 2019, the trio admitted to the hoax in October 2018 after journalists from The Wall Street Journal revealed that "Helen Wilson", the pseudonym used for their article published in Gender, Place & Culture, did not exist. By the time of the reveal, 4 of their 20 papers had been published; 3 had been accepted but not yet published; 6 had been rejected; and 7 were still under review. Included among the articles that were published were arguments that dogs engage in rape culture and that men could reduce their transphobia by anally penetrating themselves with sex toys, as well as Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf rewritten in feminist language.[2][4] The first of these had won special recognition from the journal that published it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grievance_studies_affair https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grievance_studies_affair > Mein Kampf and intersectional feminism aren’t usually lumped together in many people’s minds, but if linked with the right language and buzzwords, left-wing academic publications apparently will accept the combination as scholarship. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/3/grievance-studies-exposes-college-corruption-hoax-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/3/grievance-st...

Nice example of 'correlation does not imply causation' and if you submit this kinda thing to me in my data analysis class I'll fail you.

by nanna 5y ago

Nice example of 'correlation does not imply causation' and if you submit this kinda thing to me in my data analysis class I'll fail you.

tejohnso 5y ago

Makes me cringe a little bit when global warming presentations start out with a co2 vs global temperature chart. Especially if that forms the entire basis of the analytic part of the presentation. Because I know someone (most) is just thinking "correlation != causation" and dismissing the entire thing.

ctdonath 5y ago
Yes; interesting that they never bring up the chart showing we’re at the peak of a natural 125,000 year temperature cycle.
- everybodyknows 5y ago
  Source? The long temperature graphs I've seen look quite irregular, rather than cyclical.
  - morsch 5y ago
    Here's the smoking gun graph he's hosting: http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG http://donath.org/Photos/TempChange.PNG This is what he's talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Here's a graph similar to his, hosted on German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/Datei:Milankovic-Zyklen_2017_(cropped).jpg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen#/media/... Nobody brings it up, because scientists don't believe the observed changes in temperatures are due to Milankovitch cycles, since global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia. Here's NASA's take: https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovi...
    - yobbo 5y ago
      > global warming is happening on the order of decades and not millenia How do we know that temperatures inferred from ice-cores (or whatever) are not extremely smoothed due to natural phenomena? Can we really get resolution down to individual years such that they agree across different test sites and methods?
    - raxxorrax 5y ago
      Scaling the time axis sensibly will quickly reveal that the rising temperature and this cycle cannot explain the rise we see. There are certainly overlapping effects, but the model would fail to predict temperatures.
- missblit 5y ago
  Well for one thing we don't have tens of thousands of years to wait for a natural ice age to counteract industrial warming that has happened within the past century or two.
raxxorrax 5y ago
But in this example we know that there indeed is a correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature. Of course you cannot restrict your argument to that, but at some point you start with some axioms.

Ginden 5y ago

But if you submit that to scientifical journal it will be published. ;)

cronix 5y ago
It worked for Hitler's Mein Kampf by just changing a few words using "feminist" language, and even won some special recognition from the publishers. > Boghossian, Lindsay, and Pluckrose wrote 20 articles that promoted deliberately absurd ideas or morally questionable acts and submitted them to various peer-reviewed journals. Although they had planned for the project to run until January 2019, the trio admitted to the hoax in October 2018 after journalists from The Wall Street Journal revealed that "Helen Wilson", the pseudonym used for their article published in Gender, Place & Culture, did not exist. By the time of the reveal, 4 of their 20 papers had been published; 3 had been accepted but not yet published; 6 had been rejected; and 7 were still under review. Included among the articles that were published were arguments that dogs engage in rape culture and that men could reduce their transphobia by anally penetrating themselves with sex toys, as well as Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf rewritten in feminist language.[2][4] The first of these had won special recognition from the journal that published it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grievance_studies_affair https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grievance_studies_affair > Mein Kampf and intersectional feminism aren’t usually lumped together in many people’s minds, but if linked with the right language and buzzwords, left-wing academic publications apparently will accept the combination as scholarship. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/3/grievance-studies-exposes-college-corruption-hoax-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/3/grievance-st...