7 ms·

South Africa punished for scientific Discovery

25 points by nothrowaways 5y ago

igorkraw 5y ago
> An African Union official told the BBC developed countries were to blame for the emergence of the variant. > "What is going on right now is inevitable, it's a result of the world's failure to vaccinate in an equitable, urgent and speedy manner. It is as a result of hoarding [of vaccines] by high-income countries of the world, and quite frankly it is unacceptable," said AU vaccine delivery alliance co-chair Ayoade Alakija. > "These travel bans are based in politics, and not in science. It is wrong... Why are we locking away Africa when this virus is already on three continents?" True words spoken clearly. The fact my country was unwilling to pass vaccine mandates when there was time but kept hording vaccines and not donating them to poorer countries will go down as a mark of shame. It has also served as a counter example I like to use now that representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism - passing strict pandemic laws even though they might be unpopular didn't happen, so why not just let the people vote?
- dotancohen 5y ago
  > representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism Why would you think that "rule of the people" might function as a safeguard against "things that are popular with the people"? Democracy may be many things, but a safeguard against all evil it is not.
  - igorkraw 5y ago
    I'm specifically shitting on representative democracy. Part of the reason I'm trying to emigrate to switzerland is it's direct democracy, which I find has all of the benefits of a representative systems while alleviating some key drawbacks
    - dotancohen 5y ago
      For what it's worth, Libya was a direct democracy as well. Google for the Green Book.
      - igorkraw 5y ago
        Thanks, this is interesting, but I'd argue you need to distinguish between the label and what's actually being lived. Swiss direct democracy has concrete effects when votes happen, I don't know if that was true in Gaddafis Libya as well? (I assume not)
        dotancohen 5y ago
        The Arab reports and European reports differ on that point. As you look into it I'll remind you that Libya is an oil-rich nation, very close to Europe, and I urge you to compare the actions used to justify the anti-Gaddafi interference with the actions of other nations who were not subject to European interference. I'm an Israeli Jew, I have no love for Libya and they no love for me. But in my opinion it is very clear why Gaddafi was overthrown, and it fits a pattern.
- jollybean 5y ago
  "These travel bans are based in politics, and not in science" They are based in science. BC Health Data shows very directly that BC was mostly infected by the US, not China or Europe. We also know from NZ and AUZ experience that borders matter. In most cases it will be impossible to 'lock it out' but it will definitely be possible to slow the tide. "unwilling to pass vaccine mandates when there was time but kept hording vaccines " Those issues are unrelated, not really populist, and the UK was not 'hoarding vaccines'.
  - igorkraw 5y ago
    The UK maybe not, but my country of Germany was (source in german https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/kontraste/vernichtung-impfstoff-103.html https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/kontraste/vernichtung...). Or rather: it omitted to ensure it could pass on vaccines that it would by and is not sticking to the contract it signed with the vaccine suppliers.
- sofixa 5y ago
  > It has also served as a counter example I like to use now that representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism - passing strict pandemic laws even though they might be unpopular didn't happen, so why not just let the people vote? It did happen in many representative democracies so i don' think you can draw conclusions just based on that.
  - igorkraw 5y ago
    True, although one could argue that it happened too often to late. My go to example is still Brexit which was a legally non-binding referendum and still got passed into law despite a system very much designed to "constrain populism" (at least that's the one excuse that everyone falls back to whenever one brings up the concentration of power onto the representatives, independent of the horrible FPTP system)
sto_hristo 5y ago
A nation with the insecurities of a 14 year old child. Begs the question - is stupidity the "great filter?"
NicoJuicy 5y ago
There's literally no decent solution for this. Long term, the best solution is to make sure that the entire world gets vaccinated evenly. Dense populations first. Short term = our own people first. But there's no way to compare them if a different strategy is taken. Not every country will think the same and the country / politicians that implements the long term solution will get severe backlash from their own citizens for every measure that they will take to dampen the virus. The only mid in between is not force vaccination and give those vaccins that are potentially unused to other countries instead of holding on to them ( except group purchases) Any other thoughts that are realistic from a politicians POV?
- juanani 5y ago
  [dead]
sebazzz 5y ago
Once a new variant it is found somewhere, you can already assume it is everywhere. It happened the same way with the Delta variant and the initial outbreak in Europe. It was first found a in a few countries a way, and just two or three cases. Next thing you know, it is in your own country. I'm not saying that there shouldn't be any travel restrictions, but I am say that they generally are quite too late.
- 5350-uiop-1130 5y ago
  Are we even sure S Africa is the origin. It may just be the first place to be isolated. If we have already mask wearing, pcr tests and so forth, what do we gain from these endless knee jerk travel bans. It feels like we are going to be stuck forever in this cycle.
throwaway4good 5y ago
We did the same thing to India, Brazil, SA (first time around), the UK, and of course China. That is why the WHO warns against travel restrictions, or naming diseases by their origins. Fighting infectious diseases is a long game that involves the whole world. If we insist on punishing those who notices new diseases the first, we are surely punishing ourselves.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Restricting travel is not a punishment. The naming issue was problematic for several reasons, but mostly populist: we don't want the stigma of a COVID variant being 'blamed' on a region. "Fighting infectious diseases is a long game that involves the whole world." Yes, that means if you're hosting a new variant, you're going to face travel restrictions . Just like if you get infected, you have to quarantine. And that's that.
  - throwaway4good 5y ago
    I should have used a more neutral word than punish. Just think of it in terms of simple economic incentives. Travel restrictions on SA imposes a massive cost on the economy of SA. Why should a country spend money on actively looking for new variants, when this is the consequence when a new variant is found?
  - LAC-Tech 5y ago
    Considering the region in question: 1. actively tried to cover up the disease as it spread outside its borders and 2. did the same thing with another coronavirus in 2003 I think there's a lot of us who wouldn't have minded if this virus was named after them, and very much blame them.
    - jollybean 5y ago
      The names having nothing to do with China. They were the 'Brazil Variant' , 'South African Variant' and later 'Indian Variant'. They changed to a more regularized system which is fair. Having the 5B plebes hear about 'The Brazil Variant' I think is just bad populism. When this is all over, if historians want to refer to it as the 'Chinese Flu' then so be it ...
throwawaybutwhy 5y ago
Nope. If China had closed borders in early 2020, we wouldn't be having this discussion today. Same with ZA: close borders, quarantine, be responsible. Oh, and don't play dumb, get your population to vaccinate.
- News-Dog 5y ago
  There is no point in playing the blame game, nor playing an Ostrich with your head in the sand, how well did the 'Chernobyl Accident' denial workout? Most Countries have merely instituted a two-week ban, and/or require two-weeks Quarantine at this point. This is to allow further inspection of the virus linage, and preform research with animal models.
GordonS 5y ago
Calling it a "punishment" is utterly preposterous. For an action to be a punishment there would have to be an intent to punish - and of course there isn't. This is, quite simply, a very rationale response to a potential threat; if this new variant had been discovered elsewhere, presumably South Africa would ban flights from that country, because it's a sensible, low-impact action that helps safeguard South Africans. Indeed, it's such an obvious response that to not take it would invite some serious political and media criticism.
- chii 5y ago
  it's not punishment in the traditional sense, but in a game-theoretic sense: it's now disadvantageous to report new variants early, and you are better off waiting for someone else to report first. Think of it this way - your population is already infected, and a travel ban only hurts your economy, but doesn't improve your country's infections. So by waiting, you continue to receive economic benefits from traveling (including any incoming tourists), and only report once it's inevitable that it's going to be found regardless. Edit: you fight against this game-theoretic problem by changing the incentives. If the world pooled together a fund, which is used to offset the costs of travel restrictions to compensate for the sacrifice, then countries would more likely report correctly.
  - nothrowaways 5y ago
    Exactly, it rather incentivizes not reporting. A classical prisoners dilemma problem.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - AwaAwa 5y ago
    Explains why the manufacturing capital of the world 'officially' eliminated Covid within months, while everywhere else struggles with wave upon wave.
- mikro2nd 5y ago
  According to respected epidemiologists I've seen quoted, closing borders against one or a small number of nations amounts to nothing better than performance politics theatre and is of utterly no practical use in slowing or preventing transmission. If we accept that, then it looks a lot like a selective prejudice at work rather than a part of a rational process. Closing all borders might, I guess, be somewhat effective.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
DrBazza 5y ago
This is no different to how the world reacted when the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant was discovered and announced by the UK.
GDC7 5y ago
The punishment goes both ways. South Africa is the only affordable English speaking country one can go vacation during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. You get 400h of sun there in December and January. Many UK citizens were looking forward to going there.
- sofixa 5y ago
  Depends on how far you want to go with "English-speaking", but Sri Lanka also fits that bill (warm weather, English widely spoken, affordable, at least locally). I still think SA loses more than the poor UK tourists who have to stomach going to Madeira or Morocco and listen to heathen languages instead of SA.
  - GDC7 5y ago
    it's not south enough to offer a proper Mediterranean summer in December
    - sofixa 5y ago
      It's pretty warm, average daily temperature for December-January is 27C: https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/december/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/december/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/january/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/january/
      - GDC7 5y ago
        true but you also need 16.5h of sun per day to replicate mediterranean summer
mandmandam 5y ago
This variant has 32 mutations on the spike protein alone, and people still think we're going to vaccinate our way out of this? The 'othering' of healthy Western unvaccinated people has been pushed to encourage compliance in populations that are already 80 or 90 +. % vaccinated... Meanwhile South Africa has about 20% vaccination rate, and even that is relatively very high for the continent. It's abundantly clear that Corona easily travels between countries before being detected, so as long as we're taking two years for a 20% vaccination rate on vaccines that lose a significant amount of effectiveness after a few months, the idea we can vaccinate Corona away is sheer hubris at best. How far are we from a global system of vaccine delivery that can vaccinate 7 billion people within weeks? Even if we do that - can we vaccinate all the animals that are spreading the virus? Among others, that's deer, cats, ferrets, hamsters, primates, minks, tree shrews, raccoon dogs, fruit bats, rabbits, etc. Can we then vaccinate all of those people and animals every six months, and lock them all down? Because that's what's necessary for eradication. Every health professional who tells you otherwise is either ignorant or complicit, far as I can tell. Isn't it time we start prioritizing the protection of the most vulnerable, not just in our backyard but globally? And further, can't we prioritize the willing, rather than trying to enforce medical procedures through coercion and threat? Can't we say at this point that the pharma cunts have acquired enough lucre, and they need to start sharing the health? Only the EU and US governments have a real chance of forcing these issue, and the conversation around doing so is hopelessly lacking in the most basic common sense or decency right now. It's even contractually suppressed. Media companies and politicians have figured that it's expedient to blame all the failings of health systems on unvaccinated people, and the practical science is almost completely removed from the conversation. We all ought to be angry about that,
- choeger 5y ago
  Yes, we are going to vaccinate our way out of this. Humanity has made tremendous progress in the fight against virus infections the last two years. There is no reason to assume that this progress is already all we got. Can we create and distribute 7B doses in a month? I don't see, why that's impossible. Can we react to mutations quicker than these mutations infect the global population? We have all the right tools. So why is it not already happening, you ask? Because it's only been two years of fighting the virus. We will need some time to reflect on the experience and design a system that works in the next case. But when we play our cards correctly, this might very well be the last respiratory pandemic ever.
fabianmg 5y ago
The "Spanish" flu is still called the Spanish flu to this day, even when clearly wasn't originated in Spain.
nothrowaways 5y ago
A classical prisoners dilemma problem. Based on very interesting comment by chii, " whether to or not to report a covid 19 case first" is a game theoretic problem. Clearly a rational player will avoid punishment , and hence reporting.

25 points by nothrowaways 5y ago

> An African Union official told the BBC developed countries were to blame for the emergence of the variant. > "What is going on right now is inevitable, it's a result of the world's failure to vaccinate in an equitable, urgent and speedy manner. It is as a result of hoarding [of vaccines] by high-income countries of the world, and quite frankly it is unacceptable," said AU vaccine delivery alliance co-chair Ayoade Alakija. > "These travel bans are based in politics, and not in science. It is wrong... Why are we locking away Africa when this virus is already on three continents?" True words spoken clearly. The fact my country was unwilling to pass vaccine mandates when there was time but kept hording vaccines and not donating them to poorer countries will go down as a mark of shame. It has also served as a counter example I like to use now that representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism - passing strict pandemic laws even though they might be unpopular didn't happen, so why not just let the people vote?

dotancohen 5y ago
> representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism Why would you think that "rule of the people" might function as a safeguard against "things that are popular with the people"? Democracy may be many things, but a safeguard against all evil it is not.
- igorkraw 5y ago
  I'm specifically shitting on representative democracy. Part of the reason I'm trying to emigrate to switzerland is it's direct democracy, which I find has all of the benefits of a representative systems while alleviating some key drawbacks
  - dotancohen 5y ago
    For what it's worth, Libya was a direct democracy as well. Google for the Green Book.
    - igorkraw 5y ago
      Thanks, this is interesting, but I'd argue you need to distinguish between the label and what's actually being lived. Swiss direct democracy has concrete effects when votes happen, I don't know if that was true in Gaddafis Libya as well? (I assume not)
      - dotancohen 5y ago
        The Arab reports and European reports differ on that point. As you look into it I'll remind you that Libya is an oil-rich nation, very close to Europe, and I urge you to compare the actions used to justify the anti-Gaddafi interference with the actions of other nations who were not subject to European interference. I'm an Israeli Jew, I have no love for Libya and they no love for me. But in my opinion it is very clear why Gaddafi was overthrown, and it fits a pattern.
jollybean 5y ago
"These travel bans are based in politics, and not in science" They are based in science. BC Health Data shows very directly that BC was mostly infected by the US, not China or Europe. We also know from NZ and AUZ experience that borders matter. In most cases it will be impossible to 'lock it out' but it will definitely be possible to slow the tide. "unwilling to pass vaccine mandates when there was time but kept hording vaccines " Those issues are unrelated, not really populist, and the UK was not 'hoarding vaccines'.
- igorkraw 5y ago
  The UK maybe not, but my country of Germany was (source in german https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/kontraste/vernichtung-impfstoff-103.html https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/kontraste/vernichtung...). Or rather: it omitted to ensure it could pass on vaccines that it would by and is not sticking to the contract it signed with the vaccine suppliers.
sofixa 5y ago
> It has also served as a counter example I like to use now that representative democracy doesn't function as a safeguard against populism - passing strict pandemic laws even though they might be unpopular didn't happen, so why not just let the people vote? It did happen in many representative democracies so i don' think you can draw conclusions just based on that.
- igorkraw 5y ago
  True, although one could argue that it happened too often to late. My go to example is still Brexit which was a legally non-binding referendum and still got passed into law despite a system very much designed to "constrain populism" (at least that's the one excuse that everyone falls back to whenever one brings up the concentration of power onto the representatives, independent of the horrible FPTP system)

sto_hristo 5y ago

A nation with the insecurities of a 14 year old child. Begs the question - is stupidity the "great filter?"

NicoJuicy 5y ago

There's literally no decent solution for this. Long term, the best solution is to make sure that the entire world gets vaccinated evenly. Dense populations first. Short term = our own people first. But there's no way to compare them if a different strategy is taken. Not every country will think the same and the country / politicians that implements the long term solution will get severe backlash from their own citizens for every measure that they will take to dampen the virus. The only mid in between is not force vaccination and give those vaccins that are potentially unused to other countries instead of holding on to them ( except group purchases) Any other thoughts that are realistic from a politicians POV?

juanani 5y ago
[dead]

sebazzz 5y ago

Once a new variant it is found somewhere, you can already assume it is everywhere. It happened the same way with the Delta variant and the initial outbreak in Europe. It was first found a in a few countries a way, and just two or three cases. Next thing you know, it is in your own country. I'm not saying that there shouldn't be any travel restrictions, but I am say that they generally are quite too late.

5350-uiop-1130 5y ago
Are we even sure S Africa is the origin. It may just be the first place to be isolated. If we have already mask wearing, pcr tests and so forth, what do we gain from these endless knee jerk travel bans. It feels like we are going to be stuck forever in this cycle.

throwaway4good 5y ago

We did the same thing to India, Brazil, SA (first time around), the UK, and of course China. That is why the WHO warns against travel restrictions, or naming diseases by their origins. Fighting infectious diseases is a long game that involves the whole world. If we insist on punishing those who notices new diseases the first, we are surely punishing ourselves.

jollybean 5y ago
Restricting travel is not a punishment. The naming issue was problematic for several reasons, but mostly populist: we don't want the stigma of a COVID variant being 'blamed' on a region. "Fighting infectious diseases is a long game that involves the whole world." Yes, that means if you're hosting a new variant, you're going to face travel restrictions . Just like if you get infected, you have to quarantine. And that's that.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  I should have used a more neutral word than punish. Just think of it in terms of simple economic incentives. Travel restrictions on SA imposes a massive cost on the economy of SA. Why should a country spend money on actively looking for new variants, when this is the consequence when a new variant is found?
- LAC-Tech 5y ago
  Considering the region in question: 1. actively tried to cover up the disease as it spread outside its borders and 2. did the same thing with another coronavirus in 2003 I think there's a lot of us who wouldn't have minded if this virus was named after them, and very much blame them.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    The names having nothing to do with China. They were the 'Brazil Variant' , 'South African Variant' and later 'Indian Variant'. They changed to a more regularized system which is fair. Having the 5B plebes hear about 'The Brazil Variant' I think is just bad populism. When this is all over, if historians want to refer to it as the 'Chinese Flu' then so be it ...

throwawaybutwhy 5y ago

Nope. If China had closed borders in early 2020, we wouldn't be having this discussion today. Same with ZA: close borders, quarantine, be responsible. Oh, and don't play dumb, get your population to vaccinate.

News-Dog 5y ago
There is no point in playing the blame game, nor playing an Ostrich with your head in the sand, how well did the 'Chernobyl Accident' denial workout? Most Countries have merely instituted a two-week ban, and/or require two-weeks Quarantine at this point. This is to allow further inspection of the virus linage, and preform research with animal models.

GordonS 5y ago

Calling it a "punishment" is utterly preposterous. For an action to be a punishment there would have to be an intent to punish - and of course there isn't. This is, quite simply, a very rationale response to a potential threat; if this new variant had been discovered elsewhere, presumably South Africa would ban flights from that country, because it's a sensible, low-impact action that helps safeguard South Africans. Indeed, it's such an obvious response that to not take it would invite some serious political and media criticism.

chii 5y ago
it's not punishment in the traditional sense, but in a game-theoretic sense: it's now disadvantageous to report new variants early, and you are better off waiting for someone else to report first. Think of it this way - your population is already infected, and a travel ban only hurts your economy, but doesn't improve your country's infections. So by waiting, you continue to receive economic benefits from traveling (including any incoming tourists), and only report once it's inevitable that it's going to be found regardless. Edit: you fight against this game-theoretic problem by changing the incentives. If the world pooled together a fund, which is used to offset the costs of travel restrictions to compensate for the sacrifice, then countries would more likely report correctly.
- nothrowaways 5y ago
  Exactly, it rather incentivizes not reporting. A classical prisoners dilemma problem.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- AwaAwa 5y ago
  Explains why the manufacturing capital of the world 'officially' eliminated Covid within months, while everywhere else struggles with wave upon wave.
mikro2nd 5y ago
According to respected epidemiologists I've seen quoted, closing borders against one or a small number of nations amounts to nothing better than performance politics theatre and is of utterly no practical use in slowing or preventing transmission. If we accept that, then it looks a lot like a selective prejudice at work rather than a part of a rational process. Closing all borders might, I guess, be somewhat effective.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

DrBazza 5y ago

This is no different to how the world reacted when the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant was discovered and announced by the UK.

GDC7 5y ago

The punishment goes both ways. South Africa is the only affordable English speaking country one can go vacation during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. You get 400h of sun there in December and January. Many UK citizens were looking forward to going there.

sofixa 5y ago
Depends on how far you want to go with "English-speaking", but Sri Lanka also fits that bill (warm weather, English widely spoken, affordable, at least locally). I still think SA loses more than the poor UK tourists who have to stomach going to Madeira or Morocco and listen to heathen languages instead of SA.
- GDC7 5y ago
  it's not south enough to offer a proper Mediterranean summer in December
  - sofixa 5y ago
    It's pretty warm, average daily temperature for December-January is 27C: https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/december/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/december/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/january/ https://www.holiday-weather.com/colombo/averages/january/
    - GDC7 5y ago
      true but you also need 16.5h of sun per day to replicate mediterranean summer

mandmandam 5y ago

This variant has 32 mutations on the spike protein alone, and people still think we're going to vaccinate our way out of this? The 'othering' of healthy Western unvaccinated people has been pushed to encourage compliance in populations that are already 80 or 90 +. % vaccinated... Meanwhile South Africa has about 20% vaccination rate, and even that is relatively very high for the continent. It's abundantly clear that Corona easily travels between countries before being detected, so as long as we're taking two years for a 20% vaccination rate on vaccines that lose a significant amount of effectiveness after a few months, the idea we can vaccinate Corona away is sheer hubris at best. How far are we from a global system of vaccine delivery that can vaccinate 7 billion people within weeks? Even if we do that - can we vaccinate all the animals that are spreading the virus? Among others, that's deer, cats, ferrets, hamsters, primates, minks, tree shrews, raccoon dogs, fruit bats, rabbits, etc. Can we then vaccinate all of those people and animals every six months, and lock them all down? Because that's what's necessary for eradication. Every health professional who tells you otherwise is either ignorant or complicit, far as I can tell. Isn't it time we start prioritizing the protection of the most vulnerable, not just in our backyard but globally? And further, can't we prioritize the willing, rather than trying to enforce medical procedures through coercion and threat? Can't we say at this point that the pharma cunts have acquired enough lucre, and they need to start sharing the health? Only the EU and US governments have a real chance of forcing these issue, and the conversation around doing so is hopelessly lacking in the most basic common sense or decency right now. It's even contractually suppressed. Media companies and politicians have figured that it's expedient to blame all the failings of health systems on unvaccinated people, and the practical science is almost completely removed from the conversation. We all ought to be angry about that,

choeger 5y ago
Yes, we are going to vaccinate our way out of this. Humanity has made tremendous progress in the fight against virus infections the last two years. There is no reason to assume that this progress is already all we got. Can we create and distribute 7B doses in a month? I don't see, why that's impossible. Can we react to mutations quicker than these mutations infect the global population? We have all the right tools. So why is it not already happening, you ask? Because it's only been two years of fighting the virus. We will need some time to reflect on the experience and design a system that works in the next case. But when we play our cards correctly, this might very well be the last respiratory pandemic ever.

fabianmg 5y ago

The "Spanish" flu is still called the Spanish flu to this day, even when clearly wasn't originated in Spain.

nothrowaways 5y ago

A classical prisoners dilemma problem. Based on very interesting comment by chii, " whether to or not to report a covid 19 case first" is a game theoretic problem. Clearly a rational player will avoid punishment , and hence reporting.