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>This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants. Cases have been surging for a

>This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants. Cases have been surging for at least a month in 70-95% vaccinated countries. It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. This madness over vaccines needs to end. The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. In many parts of the US life is effectively back to normal - and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem. Covid is not going anywhere but the hysteria is not justified - people are dramatically overestimating the risks.

peter422 5y ago
At least you could mention that the cases are mainly surging in the unvaccinated. Also I don’t think anybody has said vaccines are going to eradicate covid, it is just a matter of saving peoples lives from completely preventable suffering and death.
zrail 5y ago
The problem is the healthcare system. If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, then the chances of dying from literally everything else go up significantly. Easily treatable cancers don't get treated because there's no capacity. People who get hurt in car crashes don't get seen and die of infections or sepsis or whatever because there aren't any ER beds. Everyone delays elective care because there's no capacity. In short, it's never been about saving the population in general, although that is a desirable side effect. The entire lock down and vaccination push has been about preserving the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses take many years to make, it's not exactly a quick fix.
- throwaway55421 5y ago
  Sure, but despite global leaders knowing that this would be a forever thing, barely anyone has even begun to train more healthcare professionals.
  - dageshi 5y ago
    Qualified nurses take 3-4 years to train, doctors even longer.
    - throwaway55421 5y ago
      Right, so when do we start? I don't see coronavirus going anywhere.
    - shock 5y ago
      We're nearing the 2nd year of the pandemic.
- timr 5y ago
  > If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, ...or get fired because of vaccine mandates. Let's not forget about that, because it really does put the lie to the underlying concern here. Are folks worried about "health system collapse", or are they just indiscriminately terrified? If you're truly worried about the former, then it probably doesn't make a ton of sense to place a vaccination mandate on a group of people who largely got infected and recovered early in the pandemic -- at least offer recognition of natural immunity for health care workers!
maxerickson 5y ago
A significant portion of the people that end up in an ICU don't make it out. It's not surprising that expanding ICU capacity (beyond an emergency basis) isn't a huge focus.
- dash2 5y ago
  Presumably, they'd be much less likely to survive if there was no ICU available.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    Sure, my point is that expanding ICUs isn't really a great plan A.
ISL 5y ago
The 1918 pandemic also killed 17-50 million people at a time that there were many fewer people. While it is probably an under-count, it appears that Covid has killed at least 5 million. Public health measures and vaccines have prevented a rather spectacular number of deaths as we have worked to find a way to coexist with this virus. It seems likely that with a sufficient number of infections and waves, yes, humans would eventually force Covid to evolve in the direction of other more-benign viruses. The question at hand is really: how many waves and variants are we willing to tolerate to get there (and how much human suffering is acceptable?)? We have tools and tactics that can help to speed the end of the pandemic and decrease the number of people who die. We should use them well.
sofixa 5y ago
> and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem You can't just spawn medical personnel, especially in the conditions that are prevalent due to Covid cases ( lots of work, burnout, etc.). It literally takes years to educate medical personnel, you can't just YOLO it.
Majromax 5y ago
> It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. [...] > The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. You're begging the question here. As best as we can tell, variants tend to come up when individual people mount a marginally effective immune response to the virus -- just enough to keep it in check but not enough to eradicate it. Effectively, they become a walking "gain of function" experiment. Vaccines help at the outset by strengthening the immune response. They also help on a statistical basis by simply reducing the background rate of covid in a society. Given the development of new mutations with vaccine availability, we'd be likely to see as many or more mutations without widespread vaccination. If "covid will pass" without vaccination, then it will pass faster with, and the reverse implication is not necessarily true. Remember, while the media often calls variants of concerns "vaccine escapes," the real effect is immune escape. If a new variant is more likely than average to cause a breakthrough case in a vaccinated person, it's also more likely than average to cause a reinfection in a recovered person. If you want to be optimistic, then you can still hold out hope that new, more infectious variants may be less severe. The "human gain of function experiment" process for creating variants would select for both infectivity and non-severity. However, I do not have any data on the relative severity of B.1.1.529, and summer/early fall reporting on Delta suggested that it tended to cause somewhat more severe illness than Covid Classic.
- curt15 5y ago
  It's also a lot easier for a virus to burn out when there's limited international travel.
  - GDC7 5y ago
    Which wasn't the case back then due to WW1, by 1921 half to two thrids of the world became infected with the flu
  - yobbo 5y ago
    In the 1889–1890 pandemic (possibly the origin of human coronavirus OC43), the virus spread around the world within the first six months. There were subsequent waves for one or two years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic There hasn't been limited international travel for a long time.

peter422 5y ago

At least you could mention that the cases are mainly surging in the unvaccinated. Also I don’t think anybody has said vaccines are going to eradicate covid, it is just a matter of saving peoples lives from completely preventable suffering and death.

zrail 5y ago

The problem is the healthcare system. If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, then the chances of dying from literally everything else go up significantly. Easily treatable cancers don't get treated because there's no capacity. People who get hurt in car crashes don't get seen and die of infections or sepsis or whatever because there aren't any ER beds. Everyone delays elective care because there's no capacity. In short, it's never been about saving the population in general, although that is a desirable side effect. The entire lock down and vaccination push has been about preserving the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses take many years to make, it's not exactly a quick fix.

throwaway55421 5y ago
Sure, but despite global leaders knowing that this would be a forever thing, barely anyone has even begun to train more healthcare professionals.
- dageshi 5y ago
  Qualified nurses take 3-4 years to train, doctors even longer.
  - throwaway55421 5y ago
    Right, so when do we start? I don't see coronavirus going anywhere.
  - shock 5y ago
    We're nearing the 2nd year of the pandemic.
timr 5y ago
> If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, ...or get fired because of vaccine mandates. Let's not forget about that, because it really does put the lie to the underlying concern here. Are folks worried about "health system collapse", or are they just indiscriminately terrified? If you're truly worried about the former, then it probably doesn't make a ton of sense to place a vaccination mandate on a group of people who largely got infected and recovered early in the pandemic -- at least offer recognition of natural immunity for health care workers!

maxerickson 5y ago

A significant portion of the people that end up in an ICU don't make it out. It's not surprising that expanding ICU capacity (beyond an emergency basis) isn't a huge focus.

dash2 5y ago
Presumably, they'd be much less likely to survive if there was no ICU available.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Sure, my point is that expanding ICUs isn't really a great plan A.

ISL 5y ago

The 1918 pandemic also killed 17-50 million people at a time that there were many fewer people. While it is probably an under-count, it appears that Covid has killed at least 5 million. Public health measures and vaccines have prevented a rather spectacular number of deaths as we have worked to find a way to coexist with this virus. It seems likely that with a sufficient number of infections and waves, yes, humans would eventually force Covid to evolve in the direction of other more-benign viruses. The question at hand is really: how many waves and variants are we willing to tolerate to get there (and how much human suffering is acceptable?)? We have tools and tactics that can help to speed the end of the pandemic and decrease the number of people who die. We should use them well.

sofixa 5y ago

> and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem You can't just spawn medical personnel, especially in the conditions that are prevalent due to Covid cases ( lots of work, burnout, etc.). It literally takes years to educate medical personnel, you can't just YOLO it.

Majromax 5y ago

> It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. [...] > The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. You're begging the question here. As best as we can tell, variants tend to come up when individual people mount a marginally effective immune response to the virus -- just enough to keep it in check but not enough to eradicate it. Effectively, they become a walking "gain of function" experiment. Vaccines help at the outset by strengthening the immune response. They also help on a statistical basis by simply reducing the background rate of covid in a society. Given the development of new mutations with vaccine availability, we'd be likely to see as many or more mutations without widespread vaccination. If "covid will pass" without vaccination, then it will pass faster with, and the reverse implication is not necessarily true. Remember, while the media often calls variants of concerns "vaccine escapes," the real effect is immune escape. If a new variant is more likely than average to cause a breakthrough case in a vaccinated person, it's also more likely than average to cause a reinfection in a recovered person. If you want to be optimistic, then you can still hold out hope that new, more infectious variants may be less severe. The "human gain of function experiment" process for creating variants would select for both infectivity and non-severity. However, I do not have any data on the relative severity of B.1.1.529, and summer/early fall reporting on Delta suggested that it tended to cause somewhat more severe illness than Covid Classic.

curt15 5y ago
It's also a lot easier for a virus to burn out when there's limited international travel.
- GDC7 5y ago
  Which wasn't the case back then due to WW1, by 1921 half to two thrids of the world became infected with the flu
- yobbo 5y ago
  In the 1889–1890 pandemic (possibly the origin of human coronavirus OC43), the virus spread around the world within the first six months. There were subsequent waves for one or two years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic There hasn't been limited international travel for a long time.