5 ms·
Given the stupefying number of anti-vaxers and rapid viral mutation rates, the only way we get out of this pandemic is by a relatively harmless variant out comp
by alangibson 5y ago
Given the stupefying number of anti-vaxers and rapid viral mutation rates, the only way we get out of this pandemic is by a relatively harmless variant out competing the more deadly ones. Same as with the Spanish Flu.
- erhk 5y agoFortunately this is the trend for most viruses. I have seen no evidence that the delta variant was more lethal, but that it was more transmissible. I have also seen numbers from my locality sequencing that suggested lethality was significant chunk less than that of alpha.
- yread 5y ago> I have seen no evidence that the delta variant was more lethal, but that it was more transmissible Look here then: https://www.cmaj.ca/content/193/42/E1619 https://www.cmaj.ca/content/193/42/E1619 Increased risk [compared to non-variant-of-concern SARS-COV-2] with the Delta variant was more pronounced at 108% (95% CI 78%–140%) for hospitalization, 235% (95% CI 160%–331%) for ICU admission and 133% (95% CI 54%–231%) for death.
- erhk 5y agoAlpha falls into the variant of concern classification, and this is contrasting delta with non-VOCs unless I misunderstand.
- yread 5y agoJust the preceding sentence in the abstract Compared with non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 52% (95% confidence interval [CI] 42%–63%) for hospitalization, 89% (95% CI 67%–117%) for ICU admission and 51% (95% CI 30%–78%) for death. N501Y is alpha
- postalrat 5y agoWasn't that always the case?
- deelowe 5y agoPretty much. The R0 was high from the onset and has only gotten worse with new mutations. This isn't surprising either. To get to herd immunity, we'd need a very high percentage of the population to be immune. The one difference from before the vaccines is that we now know they don't make you immune.
- erhk 5y agoHas any vaccine in known history been truly 100% effective? "Immunity" was never the goal to my understanding.
- Imnimo 5y agoThe Polio vaccine is >99% effective after the full course.
- alangibson 5y agoPolio and a few other vaccines really spoiled us in terms of what's realistic when vaccinating against a Coronavirus. Vaccinated != Immune, sadly.
- kadoban 5y agoNo, but the chance of breakthrough infection with the current vaccines is high enough that it's unlikely to allow good herd immunity at realistic vaccination rates, which sucks. Immunity is always the goal if you can get it. It's not how you judge success though, you're right. Thankfully the vaccines do drastically reduce severe illnesses though, so that's something.
- Robotbeat 5y agoThe boosters seem to help quite a bit. Perhaps higher effectiveness even than after the second dose.
- GekkePrutser 5y agoYeah I'm so hoping this will happen. Evolution will favor it of course, because a milder virus we won't fight so hard.
- 2-718-281-828 5y agoIt's called an endemy and it's totally normal and yes people die occasionally.
- alangibson 5y agoHas anyone ever attempted to intentionally spread a less lethal variant of a virus in order to speed up the crowding out of other strains? I could see us trying this if a quick spreading but innocuous strain is found.