5 ms·

I found it quite striking, that while infections here are balanced through age groups, fatalities are only 60+ and mostly 80+. e.g. seen on the "Dashboard" on

I found it quite striking, that while infections here are balanced through age groups, fatalities are only 60+ and mostly 80+. e.g. seen on the "Dashboard" on rki.de, chart "COVID-19 cases by age group and sex". Stats indicate old people die. Duh. A tragedy in each case, but that's what will happen eventually, right? And a mutated virus mostly is more contagious but less fatal, isn't it? A virus optimises for spreading, not killing it's taxi. Was like that with delta.

mupuff1234 5y ago
I think delta is also considered to be more deadly and has a much higher viral load than the original strain.
- mro_name 5y ago
  > more deadly than what? If age < 60, e.g. car accidents are orders of magnitude more deadly in my county here. There are just no (= 0) fatalities < 40 years here. So even swallowing hammers is equally or more deadly in that group.
  - ummonk 5y ago
    > than what? Than preceding variants. You're shifting the goalposts by comparing to other causes of death in young people now.
    - erhk 5y ago
      Alpha was more lethal than delta from the sequencing reports posted by my State in the U.S. .4% lethal compared to .3% lethal when I last checked. So thats one goalpost. Another litmus test is that if delta was more lethal it would have been a very popular media talking point. Fear is unfortunately a successful motivator for clicks.
      - ummonk 5y ago
        Are you looking at a small enough time span? Because vaccination drives IFR down, and vaccination rates were higher during the main Delta outbreak than during the main Alpha outbreak. Alpha variant was already deadlier than the original strain, and delta variant at least caused higher hospitalization rates than alpha: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579.long https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579.long https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00318-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- nradov 5y ago
  There is no reliable evidence that Delta has a higher infection fatality rate than other common variants.
- erhk 5y ago
  I have seen no evidence to support this yet but I do not mind being proved wrong.
ummonk 5y ago
> And a mutated virus mostly is more contagious but less fatal, isn't it? A virus optimises for spreading, not killing it's taxi. Not necessarily. In fact the better the virus gets at infecting our cells and evading immunity, the more likely it is to also spread to dangerous / lethal levels before our immune systems are able to stop it. > Was like that with delta No it wasn't.
- erhk 5y ago
  >In fact the better the virus gets at infecting our cells and evading immunity, the more likely it is to also spread to dangerous / lethal levels before our immune systems are able to stop it. Can I ask for some related literature on this topic? This contradicts my understanding.
antonvs 5y ago
Are you an idiot, a troll, or a paid shill for a hostile government? Occam's Razor suggests the first.
- mro_name 5y ago
  what infuriates you so much?
  - spurgu 5y ago
    His world view colliding with reality. It's been clear from the beginning that Covid mostly (practically only) kills old people. People who would generally have died soon anyways (of the flu, or whatever else). There has not been significant excess mortality at all, and in countries like Sweden (with very little restrictions) it's actually been negative.
- dang 5y ago
  Posting like this will get you banned here, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. Please review the rules and don't do anything like this again. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

mupuff1234 5y ago

I think delta is also considered to be more deadly and has a much higher viral load than the original strain.

mro_name 5y ago
> more deadly than what? If age < 60, e.g. car accidents are orders of magnitude more deadly in my county here. There are just no (= 0) fatalities < 40 years here. So even swallowing hammers is equally or more deadly in that group.
- ummonk 5y ago
  > than what? Than preceding variants. You're shifting the goalposts by comparing to other causes of death in young people now.
  - erhk 5y ago
    Alpha was more lethal than delta from the sequencing reports posted by my State in the U.S. .4% lethal compared to .3% lethal when I last checked. So thats one goalpost. Another litmus test is that if delta was more lethal it would have been a very popular media talking point. Fear is unfortunately a successful motivator for clicks.
    - ummonk 5y ago
      Are you looking at a small enough time span? Because vaccination drives IFR down, and vaccination rates were higher during the main Delta outbreak than during the main Alpha outbreak. Alpha variant was already deadlier than the original strain, and delta variant at least caused higher hospitalization rates than alpha: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579.long https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579.long https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00318-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
nradov 5y ago
There is no reliable evidence that Delta has a higher infection fatality rate than other common variants.
erhk 5y ago
I have seen no evidence to support this yet but I do not mind being proved wrong.

ummonk 5y ago

> And a mutated virus mostly is more contagious but less fatal, isn't it? A virus optimises for spreading, not killing it's taxi. Not necessarily. In fact the better the virus gets at infecting our cells and evading immunity, the more likely it is to also spread to dangerous / lethal levels before our immune systems are able to stop it. > Was like that with delta No it wasn't.

erhk 5y ago
>In fact the better the virus gets at infecting our cells and evading immunity, the more likely it is to also spread to dangerous / lethal levels before our immune systems are able to stop it. Can I ask for some related literature on this topic? This contradicts my understanding.

antonvs 5y ago

Are you an idiot, a troll, or a paid shill for a hostile government? Occam's Razor suggests the first.

mro_name 5y ago
what infuriates you so much?
- spurgu 5y ago
  His world view colliding with reality. It's been clear from the beginning that Covid mostly (practically only) kills old people. People who would generally have died soon anyways (of the flu, or whatever else). There has not been significant excess mortality at all, and in countries like Sweden (with very little restrictions) it's actually been negative.
dang 5y ago
Posting like this will get you banned here, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. Please review the rules and don't do anything like this again. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html