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> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear

> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps interest rates low and assets continue to rise, I think it's likely that crypto continues to rise as well. From what I've heard, there is likely to be heavy institutional buying in Q1 2022 as hedge funds and others who like to take risk will add risky assets at the start of the year.

throw0101a 5y ago
> Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. A bunch of folks from the Man Group and Campbell Harvey published a paper saying that Bitcoin specifically seems to have a positive beta with the US market: > Finally, we are in the midst of another technological disruption in the form of the cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Some have advocated the inclusion of bitcoin into a diversified portfolio as an inflation protection asset. However, caution is warranted given that bitcoin is untested with only eight years of quality data – that lack a single inflation regime. Moreover, bitcoin is more than five times more volatile than the S&P 500 or gold. This high volatility could lead to bitcoin being an unreliable hedge. In addition, there is increasing evidence that bitcoin is a speculative asset and it has a positive beta against the US market. * https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 It's still early days, so more evidence certainly needs to be gathered, but so far as a hedge against inflation crypto doesn't look too good (especially because of volatility). And Campbell published a pro-DeFi book recently, so it's not like he's against crypto generally: * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-future-of-finance https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-fu... * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey
paulpauper 5y ago
we have the possibilities: 1 crypto crash, stocks rise 2 crypto rise, stocks rise 3 crypto crash, stocks fall 4 crypto rise, stocks fall I think #4 is least likely
- tata71 5y ago
  10 Loopring says you're wrong ;)
- chii 5y ago
  > 4 crypto rise, stocks fall this is describing a world geopolitical situation that would rival the cold war imho.
  - tata71 5y ago
    So like....DoD and every branch of government being pwnd during SolarWinds etc, top US military leadership citing incompetency while resigning, dog money having tens of billions of dollars of market cap......

throw0101a 5y ago

> Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. A bunch of folks from the Man Group and Campbell Harvey published a paper saying that Bitcoin specifically seems to have a positive beta with the US market: > Finally, we are in the midst of another technological disruption in the form of the cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Some have advocated the inclusion of bitcoin into a diversified portfolio as an inflation protection asset. However, caution is warranted given that bitcoin is untested with only eight years of quality data – that lack a single inflation regime. Moreover, bitcoin is more than five times more volatile than the S&P 500 or gold. This high volatility could lead to bitcoin being an unreliable hedge. In addition, there is increasing evidence that bitcoin is a speculative asset and it has a positive beta against the US market. * https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 It's still early days, so more evidence certainly needs to be gathered, but so far as a hedge against inflation crypto doesn't look too good (especially because of volatility). And Campbell published a pro-DeFi book recently, so it's not like he's against crypto generally: * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-future-of-finance https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-fu... * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey

paulpauper 5y ago

we have the possibilities: 1 crypto crash, stocks rise 2 crypto rise, stocks rise 3 crypto crash, stocks fall 4 crypto rise, stocks fall I think #4 is least likely

tata71 5y ago
10 Loopring says you're wrong ;)
chii 5y ago
> 4 crypto rise, stocks fall this is describing a world geopolitical situation that would rival the cold war imho.
- tata71 5y ago
  So like....DoD and every branch of government being pwnd during SolarWinds etc, top US military leadership citing incompetency while resigning, dog money having tens of billions of dollars of market cap......